Pakistan and ISIS; A Pause on The Guardian’s Claim
8am: There is no doubt that the ISIS Khorasan operates in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban. Although the Taliban deny this issue, occasionally they report attacks on ISIS hideouts in certain provinces, which is a significant contradiction. However, the idea of a country and a group supporting ISIS against the Taliban is at least dubious for now. Countries like Russia and Iran have repeatedly accused the United States of supporting ISIS in Afghanistan over the past two and a half years; a claim that is quite surprising. For example, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, claimed last June that the United States supports ISIS and Al-Qaeda groups in Afghanistan. Lavrov had said that America seeks to keep Afghanistan in a perpetual state of unrest with this action. Following that, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, the Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Afghanistan, claimed in early August of the same year in an interview with Iranian media that Washington uses ISIS as a tool to pressurize the Taliban. He even stated that America has replaced ISIS with its military forces in Afghanistan. Click here to read more (external link).
Federalists in Exile
8am: Over the past two decades of the Republic system, the topic of shifting the political system from centralized to decentralized has been a prevalent theme in political discussions. Non-Pashtun politicians have often advocated for a shift in the power distribution system from vertical to horizontal, while a majority of Pashtun politicians have emphasized the concentration of political power in the center. They have occasionally accused supporters of decentralized systems of separatism and neglect of national unity. Within this context, some politicians have been inconsistent in their positions, adapting based on personal circumstances and interests. Click here to read more (external link).
If necessary, Suicide brigade from Afghanistan to support Gaza: Iran’s Envoy
Khaama: Iran’s representative for Afghanistan suggests that if necessary, “more than one division of martyrdom forces” will go from Afghanistan to support Gaza. Hassan Kazemi Qumi told the state-owned network Ofoq that Afghanistan is geographically distant from Gaza but is part of the “axis of resistance.” The Islamic Republic of Iran refers to groups under its support and other factions fighting against the Western coalition and Israel in the region as the “axis of resistance.” As of now, the Taliban has not issued any official comments regarding the remarks made by the Iranian representative. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Tolo News in Dari – February 7, 2024
Biden’s hasty exit from Afghanistan deemed biggest mistake
Khaama: An American media outlet known as The National Interest has termed America’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan as President Biden’s biggest failure, stating that it underscores the futility of “the entire two-decade endeavour in Afghanistan.” According to this report, authored by Peter Suciu, America’s tumultuous exit from Afghanistan, along with other factors such as the transfer of advanced military equipment to the Taliban, abandoning Afghan allies, the killing of 13 American soldiers at Kabul airport, and the return of America’s old enemy (the Taliban) to power, constitutes Biden’s biggest mistakes during his presidency. Click here to read more (external link).
Other US-Afghanistan News
Passengers Lodge Complaints Against Surcharges by Drivers and the Taliban in Ghazni Province
8am: Some passengers traveling along the Kabul-Ghazni Highway complain about the high fares charged by drivers on this route and the extra fees imposed by the Taliban. They claim that the Taliban’s Land Transport Regulation Authority in the province has set specific fares for various minibusses along the Kabul-Ghazni route. However, Taliban personnel stationed at checkpoints collude with drivers to overcharge passengers. It is noteworthy that the Taliban recently dismissed all officials of the Drivers’ Union Office and replaced them with their own individuals. Additionally, the Taliban have officially appointed three other individuals at checkpoints to control and prevent overcharging, yet these individuals engage in corruption themselves. Click here to read more (external link).
Afghan Oil Production Jumps With $49 Million Chinese Investment
By Akmal Dawi
VOA News
February 6, 2024
A Chinese energy company’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan’s oil production has helped boost the country’s daily crude oil output to more than 1,100 metric tons, but the funding is just one-third of what Beijing originally pledged.
One year ago, China’s Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co, or CAPEIC, signed a major oil extraction contract with Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. That 25-year contract requires CAPEIC to invest $150 million by the first year and a total of $540 million by 2026.
According to a top Taliban official who spoke to VOA on condition of anonymity, the company fell short of its investment target due to inaccurate estimates of material and labor costs, as well as a three-month delay in the approval of its financial plan by Afghan authorities.
“The investments will add up as the contract stipulates,” the official said, adding that the Taliban’s treasury earned about $26 million from the project last year.
The Amu Darya basin, spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, is estimated to contain 962 million barrels of crude oil and 52,025 billion cubic feet of natural gas, according to a 2011 assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey.
To tap into this potential, the Chinese company plans to dig 22 additional wells this year, aiming to increase daily production to more than 2,000 tons, or about 15,000 barrels. One metric ton of crude oil is equal to 7.46 barrels.
Despite attempts to reach CAPEIC for comment via email, the company did not respond to questions about the project.
Budding relationship
Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping surprised many by receiving the diplomatic credentials of the Taliban’s ambassador to Beijing. It is not clear if Beijing’s action constitutes diplomatic recognition. No country has formally declared its recognition of the Taliban government.
China’s move, coupled with limited business deals like the Afghan oil project, suggests Beijing’s pragmatic approach to Afghanistan, experts say.
“Although the attraction of [Afghanistan’s] mining and energy resources is strong, there is considerable Chinese wariness about the internal security situation, the reliability of Taliban assurances regarding foreign investments, and Afghanistan’s poor infrastructure,” Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow for China at the United States Institute of Peace, wrote to VOA in written comments.
Facing international sanctions and isolation, the Taliban have actively sought Chinese investments and engagement in Afghanistan.
Experts, however, suggest that China’s primary motivation might not be economic gain, but rather curbing potential security threats emanating from its unstable neighbor.
This aligns with concerns raised by several countries, including the United States and Russia, regarding the presence in Afghanistan of foreign terrorist groups that could pose threats beyond its porous borders.
“In the near term, Beijing’s primary focus vis-à-vis Afghanistan is relatively modest: to ensure stability on its westernmost border, remain engaged in the country and sustain its relationship with the new government in Kabul,” said Scobell.
China’s long-term goals in Afghanistan remain unclear, but Beijing’s increasing engagement raises questions about its potential ambitions.
“China’s influence in the country will likely increase, particularly if the situation continues on current indications,” said Barbara Kelemen, an expert at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies.
No U.S. competition
Following nearly two decades of military involvement and more than $100 billion expended in Afghanistan, the United States withdrew its forces in August 2021, leading to the Taliban’s return to power.
The decision sparked much debate and introspection within the U.S., prompting Congress to establish the Afghanistan War Commission.
The bipartisan commission is tasked with examining and reporting on the entirety of the U.S. engagement in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, aiming to draw valuable lessons and inform future policy decisions.
“Guess who’s in Afghanistan today? China,” Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said during a hearing on Afghanistan last month.
McCaul and other lawmakers have raised concerns about the possibility of China taking over Bagram airfield in the north of Kabul. The U.S. military used Bagram as its main base throughout the Afghan war.
“We don’t see Afghanistan as a place where we need to compete with the Chinese and the Russians,” Thomas West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, told the hearing when asked what Washington is doing about increasing Chinese involvement in the country.
Although China and the United States exhibit very different diplomatic approaches toward Afghanistan, the U.S. remains the leading humanitarian donor to the country.
U.S. officials report more than $2 billion in humanitarian assistance provided to Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover.
Taliban Gun Down a Young Woman in Balkh Province
8am: According to sources, on Tuesday, February 6th, the Taliban carried out the shooting in the “Kol Amboi” area of Balkh’s district, leaving the victim’s body abandoned by the roadside. The motive driving the Taliban to perpetrate this heinous act remains shrouded in mystery. Click here to read more (external link).
Tolo News in Dari – February 6, 2024