Amrullah Saleh
France24: Amrullah Saleh, a vice presidential hopeful in Afghanistan’s upcoming polls, narrowly escaped another assassination attempt on Sunday. His survival mirrors that of his country and could be a harbinger of things to come. The 46-year-old Afghan candidate has survived so many assassination attempts that a popular aphorism about Saleh’s “nine lives” has been gaining traction in Kabul circles. Click here to read more (external link).
Mohammad Hanif Atmar
Tolo News: The political office of Atta Mohammad Noor, the former governor of northern Balkh and chief executive of Jamiat-e-Islami party, who joined Mohammad Haneef Atmar’s campaign team ahead of September presidential elections on Wednesday confirmed reports of differences within the campaign and said the disagreements broke out after Mr. Atmar backtracked from his original position on the post of premiership. According to Noor’s aides, Atmar had committed in a written document to create the post of prime minister once he wins the presidential elections. Click here to read more (external link).
Sohail Shaheen
Ayaz Gul
VOA News
July 31, 2019
ISLAMABAD – The Taliban says it is hopeful an agreement will be reached with the United States to end the 18-year-old war in Afghanistan when the two adversaries meet later this week in Qatar for a crucial round of peace negotiations.
The two sides have worked hard for nearly one year and almost drafted a text in which “we have addressed all major issues,” Suhail Shaheen, who speaks for the Taliban negotiating team, told VOA.
Taliban negotiators have done their part and it is now up to the American side whether they have “made up their mind” and take the next step of winding up the dialogue process, he asserted.
“We hope to reach an agreement on the troops’ withdrawal,” Shaheen said when asked for his exceptions from the upcoming meeting, though he declined to say when exactly the talks will take place.
U.S chief negotiator Zalamay Khalilzad, who has been in Afghanistan for more than a week, tweeted Wednesday that he is heading to Qatar for talks with the Taliban. “In Doha, if the Taliban do their part, we will do ours and conclude the agreement we have been working on.” Khalilzad added that during his stay in Kabul he worked with Afghan leaders to finalize a negotiating team for intra-Afghan talks. Khalilzad said he will stop in neighboring Pakistan before traveling to the Qatari capital.
The draft text outlines a “mutually agreed” timeline for U.S. troops to leave the country in exchange for Taliban guarantees that “Afghan soil, particularly areas under our control” do not become a platform for transnational terrorism, Shaheen said, without sharing specific details.
He said international guarantors, possibly China, Russia, the United Nations, and neighbors of Afghanistan, including Pakistan and Iran, will witness the signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement.
U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he intends to wind down the longest U.S. foreign military intervention, costing Washington an estimated nearly one trillion dollars and more than 2,400 lives of American military personnel.
On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said President Trump has instructed him to reduce the number of American troops in Afghanistan by the 2020 election. “He (Trump) has been unambiguous: End the endless wars. Draw down. Reduce. It won’t just be us,” Pompeo noted in some of the clearest comments on the administration’s plans to terminate the war.
Once the agreement between the United States and the Taliban is inked, it will require the insurgents to immediately enter into negotiations with Afghan stakeholders.
The chief Taliban negotiator, Sher Abbas Stanikzai, earlier this month acknowledged while talking to VOA in Doha that issues such as a permanent and comprehensive cease-fire will be taken up in the intra-Afghan talks.
“We are committed that when the final agreement is signed with the Americans for the withdrawal of their troops and the timetable is given and international guarantors are witnessing the final signature, after that we will go to the inter-Afghan dialogue,” Stanikzai explained to VOA.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s government has repeatedly said it would have the lead role in conducting the inter-Afghan talks, prompting the Taliban to quickly deny those assertions.
Khalilzad, however, intervened on Saturday to end the confusion by publicly explaining who would be sitting on the negotiating table when intra-Afghan negotiations begin.
“They will take place between the Taliban and an inclusive and effective national negotiating team consisting of senior government officials, key political party representatives, civil society and women,” the Afghan-born U.S. envoy tweeted.
Khalilzad’s statement was yet another major concession to the Taliban who have consistently refused to engage in direct talks with the Ghani administration, dismissing it as “illegitimate and an American puppet.”
The Afghan-born American reconciliation envoy has been in Kabul over the past week and has held at least four meetings with Ghani and talked to key Afghan opposition leaders as well as civil society leaders in his bid to push them to form a representative team for the much-awaited talks with the Taliban to help end decades of bloodshed in the country.
Pakistan’s role in Afghan peace
Neighboring Pakistan, meanwhile, is increasingly taking the center stage in the Afghan peace process for arranging the U.S.-Taliban dialogue and vowing to intensify its role to help bring the process to the logical conclusion.
Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Washington earlier this month and discussed Afghanistan with President Trump. The Pakistani leader promised to personally meet with Taliban leaders to persuade them to go for a negotiated settlement to the war through Afghan-to-Afghan talks.
On Tuesday, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi welcomed Pompeo’s statement about U.S. military drawdown. He insisted while talking to reporters that Islamabad is moving forward with “honesty and in good faith” to further the Afghan reconciliation process but he dismissed assertions Pakistan alone is responsible for doing so.
“Pakistan is a facilitator. Pakistan is not a guarantor. The onus cannot be on Pakistan alone because it is a shared responsibility. It will be unrealistic for the world to expect that we (Pakistan) have a magic wand and can ensure desired outcomes from this peace process,” Qureshi stressed.
Afghans, however, remain critical of Pakistan’s efforts, alleging the country has sheltered Taliban leaders and helped them sustain insurgent activities on the Afghan side, charges Islamabad rejects.
Pakistan’s ongoing effort to fence its nearly 2,600 kilometer Afghan border, denunciation of continued Taliban violence and promoting a reconciliation process are all aimed at securing peaceful neighborhood, say officials in Islamabad.
“We will cooperate even with the devil for ensuring peace in Afghanistan,” a senior Pakistani security official insisted when asked to respond to allegations Pakistan wants to install a government of its own choice in Kabul like it did in the past by supporting certain Afghan factions.
“Pakistan had coined the phrase, and now continues to urge all sides to faithfully implement the “Afghan-owned, Afghan-led” principle as hopes for peace grow stronger by the day,” observed a senior foreign ministry official with direct knowledge of Pakistan’s role in Afghan peace building efforts.
“Aware of its key role, Pakistan will continue to shoulder its part of the shared responsibility,” he added.
Pakistani officials, however, cautioned in background interviews that their “core interests and serious concerns cannot be overlooked” as such attempts would cast a shadow on this spirt of cooperation.”
Pakistani officials allege rival India’s growing influence in the Afghan security establishment is behind recent terrorist attacks inside Pakistan and want India’s role restricted to only reconstruction assistance to the war-torn country. New Delhi rarely comments on the Pakistani allegations while the Afghan government rejects them as baseless.
Sources in Islamabad told VOA senior U.S. State Department diplomat Alice Wells will arrive in Pakistan next week to review Afghan peace efforts in meetings with Pakistani officials.
Wells, the U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state in charge of South and Central Asian affairs, is credited with initiating the direct U.S. talks with the Taliban in July 2018. There was no official confirmation available from either side about her upcoming visit, however.
Iran’s possible role to act as a guarantor in the final U.S.-Taliban deal, however, is unclear in the wake of the country’s increased tensions with the United States. Sources tell VOA that Tehran had refused to attend a meeting Beijing hosted in early July of senior Chinese, Russian, American and Pakistani officials to review Afghan peace developments.
Related
Ayaz Gul
VOA News
July 31, 2019
Security officials in western Afghanistan say at least 34 people were killed and around 17 others injured after a passenger bus was hit by a roadside bomb on a highway between the cities of Herat and Kandahar.
A provincial official says the bomb tore through the bus, which was carrying mostly women and children. The injured were taken to Herat Regional Hospital for treatment.
No group has claimed responsibility. Taliban insurgents, however, operate in the region and frequently use roadside bombs to target government officials and security forces, even as peace talks involving U.S. officials and Taliban representatives are scheduled to resume.
The two sides hope to establish a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces in exchange for security guarantees by the Taliban.
The deadly violence Wednesday came a day after the United Nations reported that nearly 4,000 Afghan civilians were killed or wounded in the first half of 2019.
The U.N. Afghan mission noted in its report released Tuesday that more civilians were killed by government and NATO-led troops than by the Taliban and other insurgent groups in the first half of 2019.
Rahmatullah Nabil
By Frud Bezhan
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
July 30, 2019
As a former intelligence chief and an outspoken opponent of the Taliban, Rahmatullah Nabil has long been a marked man.
As a candidate in Afghanistan’s presidential election in September, the dangers facing Nabil have increased exponentially.
The Interior Ministry spent nearly a year devising an election security strategy that included providing armored vehicles and guards for candidates during rallies and at their homes.
But when the election campaign kicked off on July 28, Nabil did not have the promised protection and was forced to abandon the launch of his public campaign.
“This has badly affected our campaign so far,” Nabil, the two-time head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), told RFE/RL on July 30. “The government knows the high security threat to me, but it is still not cooperating.”
The Interior Ministry did not reply to RFE/RL’s requests for comment.
Nabil’s worries about attacks against the 18 presidential candidates proved to be warranted.
At least 20 people were killed and 40 wounded in a bomb attack that was followed by a gunbattle at the office of President Ashraf Ghani’s running mate, Amrullah Saleh, on July 28.
The security fears have added to the deep uncertainty over the September 28 election — a vote that has been delayed and is expected to be the war-torn nation’s second-ever democratic transition of power.
Many of the presidential candidates have threatened to boycott the vote, alleging that Ghani is manipulating the election process in his favor.
There are also doubts if the election will even be held due to talks in Qatar with the Taliban over a peace agreement. Some candidates favor delaying the election and installing an interim government as the peace talks are being held.
Three days into the election season, a dozen candidates have failed to launch their campaigns.
Only three candidates, including Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, held rallies on July 28. Ghani addressed several thousand supporters in a huge auditorium in Kabul. Meanwhile, Abdullah held a rally at a crowded wedding hall in Kabul.
No candidates held rallies on July 29.
“Candidates are hesitant to launch their campaign because they are not sure if the election will be held,” said Ali Adili, a researcher at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent think tank in Kabul. “They think it might be delayed in favor of peace. The threats of a boycott can serve as an additional pretext for postponing the election.”
Election ‘Will Not Be Free’
Nabil said security threats and the government’s failure to provide security to the candidates will prevent a free and fair election.
“I know there will not be a transparent election,” said Nabil, a former United Nations official, warning that a disputed and fraudulent election will create “dangerous consequences for Afghanistan.”
The 2014 presidential election was marred by allegations of widespread fraud that threatened to trigger a civil war before a power-sharing agreement was reached.
October’s parliamentary elections, delayed for three years, were undermined by militant attacks, widespread irregularities, and technical and logistical problems.
There is also concern that the upcoming election could be hit by voter fatigue.
“Considering the Taliban’s plan to disrupt the election, the government’s mismanagement of the country in the past five years, and the last parliamentary elections, the turnout will be low,” said Nabil.
Unfair Advantage
A coalition of some 12 presidential candidates has threatened to boycott the vote. The group has demanded that Ghani remove several recently appointed officials, including a new ambassador to India who is under investigation by the attorney general for corruption.
Presidential candidate Hanif Atmar said the appointments were political and contravened electoral law and urged Ghani to refrain from using “government resources and authority” for his personal gains.
The Election Support Group of Ambassadors (EGA), which is comprised of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), NATO, and key donor countries, said in a statement on July 19 that Ghani and Abdullah “as candidates in positions of authority…have a special responsibility to clearly distinguish between their role as government officials and as presidential candidates.”
The EGA “noted the public concerns about maintaining a level playing field amongst all candidates and stakeholders” and said it “takes allegations of abuse of authority seriously.”
On July 21, the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) announced a hiring and firing ban on all government positions.
Taliban Talks
The election comes as U.S. and Taliban negotiators try to hammer out the details of a peace agreement that would see foreign troops leave Afghanistan in exchange for a pledge by the Taliban not to allow the country to become a base for terrorist groups. U.S. officials said they are seeking a deal by September 1.
The sides have held eight rounds of talks in Qatar since September and are reported to be making some progress. They are expected to meet again for more negotiations in August.
The U.S.-Taliban agreement would precede intra-Afghan talks over a future political settlement that will be negotiated between the internationally backed government in Kabul, the militant group, and representatives of Afghan society.
It is not clear how a U.S.-Taliban peace deal or Afghan government-Taliban peace negotiations would affect the presidential election.
There is a possibility that the vote could be canceled altogether in the event of a peace settlement and the formation of an interim government that the Taliban would join.
That idea has been floated privately by U.S. officials and has been supported by the Taliban and Afghan opposition figures, although Ghani has strongly rejected it.
John Sopko
Tolo News: Afghan military forces face heavy turnover rates and a lack of quality equipment, shortcomings that are keeping the country from being self-sustaining even after 18 years of war and $83 billion in US security support, the US special inspector general for Afghanistan Reconstruction, John F. Sopko, said on Monday. Click here to read more (external link).
Ayaz Gul
VOA News
July 30, 2019
The United Nations says more Afghan civilians were killed by government and NATO-led troops than by the Taliban and other insurgent groups in the first half of 2019.
The U.N.’s mission in Afghanistan released a report Monday that showed a combined 717 civilians were killed by government and international forces — an increase of 31% from the same period in 2018 — compared to 531 killed by the Taliban and other hardline Islamist groups. Most of the deaths occurred during Afghan and NATO air and ground attacks against insurgents.
The report said a total of 2,446 Afghan civilians were injured at that hands of pro-government and insurgent troops.
“Parties to the conflict may give differing explanations for recent trends, each designed to justify their own military tactics,” said Richard Bennett, the human rights chief of the U.N.’s Afghanistan Mission. He said both sides could improve the situation “not just by abiding by international humanitarian law but also by reducing the intensity of the fighting.”
The United States is negotiating with Taliban on a peace deal to end the 18-year-long war, launched by the U.S. against Afghanistan’s then-ruling Taliban in response to the September 11, 2001, al-Qaida terror attacks on Washington and New York. The Taliban wants the full withdrawal of all U.S. and foreign forces from Afghanistan, while the U.S. is seeking a number of security guarantees from hardline group, including a pledge that Afghanistan will never again be used as a base to launch terror attacks against the U.S.
Related
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
July 30, 2019
An Afghan soldier has shot and killed two U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan’s southern province of Kandahar, officials say.
A spokesman for the Afghan military said on July 30 that the two soldiers were killed when a member of the Afghan National Army opened fire on troops inside a military base in the district of Shah Wali Kot the previous day.
The soldier who turned his gun on the Americans was wounded during the attack and is now in custody, said the spokesman, Ahmad Sadiq.
The U.S. military said on July 29 that two of its service members were killed in Afghanistan, but provided no details.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, U.S. officials said that they had died in a so-called insider attack.
In such attacks, sometimes referred to as “green-on-blue,” Afghan forces turn their weapons on international soldiers with whom they are working.
At least 11 U.S. troops have been killed in Afghanistan since the beginning of the year.
The United States has about 14,000 troops in the country as part of a 23,000-strong NATO-led mission that is training and assisting the Afghan government’s security forces in their fight against Taliban militants and other extremist groups.
Based on reporting by dpa, AP, Reuters, and AFP
Tolo News: Afghanistan’s U16 National Football Team will face Uzbekistan in their fourth match of the CAFA U16 Championship in Tajikistan on Tuesday. The match will start at 5:30pm Kabul time on Tuesday. On Monday, the Afghan side defeated the powerful Iran 1-0. Click here to read more (external link).