Commentary: The United States’ Parting Gift To Afghanistan Of Theocratic Democracy

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Obaidullah Baheer
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
July 8, 2021

A civil war in Afghanistan seems increasingly probable amid the withdrawal of foreign forces, the Taliban’s unwillingness to compromise, and the Afghan elites’ inability to come to a consensus. But we shouldn’t give up hope for peace or stop discussing how to make such a peace sustainable.

Though the form of political settlement is still relatively vague, we can make certain assumptions about the political order the United States aims to leave behind in Afghanistan. The peace proposal from the office of peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad recommended the formation of a religious jurisprudence council, which was followed a few months later by talk of the formation of a Supreme State Council within Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s previous rejection of calls for early elections by President Ashraf Ghani and its evasive stance on any future participation in elections all point toward the importance of discussing how the pro-settlement elements within the Taliban envision the future Afghan political order.

A future order in Afghanistan with a council for religious jurisprudence would add a theocratic aspect to the state. Talk of Islamic theocratic states brings to mind the examples of Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In Iran, the supreme leader and the council of experts that elects him are religious scholars constricting the role of the president and parliament to conform to the overarching direction chosen by the religious authorities.

Saudi Arabia, though similar to Iran in the authoritarian nature of its nonelected head of state, differs from Iran in that the powers lying with the Saud family and religion have been delegated to Al-Sheikh (descendants of Sheikh Abdul Wahab who helped found the kingdom of Saudi Arabia).

The recent shift in vision and arrests of religious scholars in Saudi Arabia have shown the royal family reasserting their dominance over all important matters of the state. The Saudi monarchy has always ensured that it is the real authority within the state, an authority that the Taliban aspires to assume without having to compete in elections.

An Afghan executive jurisprudence council might evolve from the Supreme Council of the State. This council was intended to comprise influential political elites that presumably would hold executive authority and be tasked with monitoring the working of the state. Though there is currently controversy over whether it would have executive authority, this body could help transition into a new government by including the Taliban after a preliminary agreement over peace is reached.

One of the transitional government’s tasks would be to review the constitution and decide the form of the future government. The Taliban has likely had some semblance of an agreement with the United States as part of their deal to be handed a council of jurisprudence that holds supreme authority in the state. Thus the Taliban can realize their goal of establishing an Islamic state without having to participate in elections that they are unlikely to unanimously win while maintaining an Iran-like control over politics.

There is an important question to be asked as to why the Taliban movement would set impossible conditions to participate in peace talks and escalate violence when it has been promised such a handover of power.

Khalilzad encouraged Ghani to declare his intentions of leading the republic’s delegation at the Istanbul summit. A meeting between the heads of the republic and the Taliban would have enabled the United States to frame the Afghan conflict as a contest of legitimacy.

Notwithstanding that this would have been another in a series of instances where Khalilzad and his team undermined the republic’s legitimacy by making the Taliban and republic leaders sit as equals across from one another, it would have granted legitimacy to the peace process and a possible transition.

However, the scale of grievances and distrust in the conflict have led the Taliban to take a stern stance on demanding a transitional government not involve Ghani, and the United State’s failure to realize such a promise seems to have led the Taliban to lose faith in the process altogether.

If the ultimate goal of the peace process is to end the war then we would only achieve a negative peace that lacks structural and societal reforms laying the groundwork for sustainable peace.

Any settlement that would hand over control of the state to the Taliban in the form of a religious council would betray everything that Afghanistan has achieved in the past 20 years. We would be compromising on democracy, education, and women’s rights in a democratic theocracy run by the Taliban.

The Islamic revolution in Iran that was once welcomed by the West should be lesson enough not to recreate that world in Afghanistan.

These views are the author’s alone and do not represent those of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. RFE/RL Gandhara is committed to publishing a diversity of views about critical issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan. If you would like to pitch an op-ed or analysis, please write to us: gandhara@rferl.org

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

COVID-19: 1,226 New Cases, 84 Deaths Reported in Afghanistan

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Tolo News: On Thursday, the Ministry of Public Health reported 1,226 new positive cases of COVID-19 out of 3,888 samples tested in the last 24 hours. The ministry also reported 84 deaths from COVID-19 and 1,241 recoveries in the same period. The number of total recorded cases is 131,586 and total deaths 5,561, according to figures by the Public Health Ministry. Click here to read more (external link).

Armed Afghan women take to streets in show of defiance against Taliban

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The Guardian (UK): Women have taken up guns in northern and central Afghanistan, marching in the streets in their hundreds and sharing pictures of themselves with assault rifles on social media, in a show of defiance as the Taliban make sweeping gains nationwide. One of the biggest demonstrations was in central Ghor province, where hundreds of women turned out at the weekend, waving guns and chanting anti-Taliban slogans. Click here to read more (external link).

Related

A New Wave Of Afghan Refugees Finds Shelter In Turkey

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Nilly Kohzad
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
July 7, 2021

ISTANBUL — Fleeing poverty and war in their home country, Afghan refugees are turning to Turkey, one of the few nations hosting Afghans by the thousands.

Over the past several years, Turkey has become a critical refugee hotspot for Afghans alongside its still-expanding Syrian and Iraqi refugee population. Its key location straddling East and West has made it a stopover for refugees on their journey to start a new life in Europe.

According to refugee officials, an estimated nearly 200,000 Afghan refugees are living in Turkey, a number that is increasing on a daily basis since the United States announced its full withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in early April.

Since then, the Taliban has made considerable gains, capturing dozens of districts across Afghanistan. As a result, a mass exodus is taking place as Afghans seek a new home away from insecurity and threats from the Taliban.

“I came to Turkey to save my life,” said Nisar Ahmad, an Afghan refugee living in Zeytinburnu, a densely populated district on the European side of Istanbul known as a hub for all things Afghan. “I was working with American troops in Afghanistan,” he noted.

Single Afghan men who are menial workers make up the majority of those fleeing, and Turkey provides them an opportunity to support themselves and their families back home, even if just temporarily.

“I came here illegally since it was difficult to obtain a permit,” Ahmad said. “Finding a place to live and work has been a big struggle. For refugees, our options are either working as waiters in restaurants or doing manual labor like construction work. We have very few options here, and the COVID-19 pandemic has made things even worse.”

The Road To Europe

Since 2019, Afghans are the largest group of asylum seekers in Turkey. According to UNHCR, Afghans are the second-most common citizenship to claim asylum in the European Union. This movement to Turkey and onward to Europe is expected to continue post-pandemic.

“Most refugees coming to Turkey don’t intend to stay here. Everyone wants to go to Europe, but since borders and routes are closed they have all become stagnant. These days, because of the U.S. withdrawal, everyone is planning their exit strategy, and many are choosing Turkey as a kind of pitstop,” Ahmad said.

Ali Hekmat is co-founder of the Afghan Refugee Solidarity Association (ARSA), a nonprofit that helps Afghan refugees settle in Turkey. He has witnessed a gradual increase of refugees since 2009, when he himself arrived as one.

“When I came here, I ran into many Afghans that were struggling. They did not know the Turkish language, healthcare system, or school system,” he said. “Kids would be born here in Turkey, but families wouldn’t know how to register them properly. Some kids could never even attend school because of these issues.”

According to Hekmat, many Afghans are still struggling to integrate themselves into Turkish society and culture.

“The problem is that today most refugees that are coming from Afghanistan are not educated. I can confidently say 95 percent are not university-educated, and some barely speak the Persian lingua franca, forget about English or anything else,” he said. “That’s why I began volunteering to help Afghan refugees with Turkish-language courses, workshops, translation services, and humanitarian aid.”

ARSA is just one of the nonprofits that support Afghans in Turkey, but it’s an uphill effort. As insecurity in Afghanistan mounts, Hekmat and his organization are preparing for another wave of Afghan refugees to enter the country.

“Afghan refugees have mostly no other place to go. In Iran, the economic conditions are very bad, and they have gained a negative viewpoint on Afghans; we are not welcome there,” he said. “Pakistan has its own problems. Afghans just want a safe life, away from insecurity, poverty, and unemployment. Now that the Taliban has strengthened, we are preparing for a new wave of refugees to arrive in Turkey.”

Newfound Freedoms

Ahmad Ershad Mirzaye is a refugee in Turkey who recently made the arduous journey from Afghanistan. Despite never wanting to leave his home in Kabul, the worsening conditions and personal difficulties he faced essentially forced him out of the country.

“I left Afghanistan very suddenly. I never intended to leave actually, but life happens,” he said.

Ever since Mirzaye arrived in Istanbul, his plan was to keep out of trouble. He spends his days working as a tailor to make ends meet for himself and his family back home. Contrary to most refugees who are simply passing through Turkey, he intends to stay. From his perspective, settling in Turkey and building a new life there is possible so long as other Afghan refugees don’t ruin it for everyone else.

“Turkey has done its share of humanity by housing us in their country, but sometimes our people cannot swallow the freedoms found here. For example, alcohol is out in the open, people can dress how they want, to some degree — these are all foreign concepts for our people,” he said.

“Our people have lived very closed-off lives and that’s why a number of Afghans lose themselves here, they go crazy, or they start fighting with other Afghans or Turks. They ruin it for themselves and for us,” Mirzaye said.

But he was quick to clarify that the actions of the few don’t speak for the majority.

“There are actually just a small percentage of Afghans like this. We are not as bad as they make us seem,” he said.

‘Afghans Are Alone’

In recent years, increasing numbers of refugees from around the region have led to a shift in perceptions among many Turkish people, who used to be more tolerant and compassionate to refugees, especially to Afghans. But as the number of refugees multiplied, so did intolerance and stereotypes. This is why Afghans like Mirzaye are looking to keep their heads down and live a good life.

“I wish people could understand that no one wants to leave their home permanently, away from their beloved family and friends. Afghans are alone. The United States left us at such a critical point when we needed them most. As an Afghan, it would be nice if other nations changed their perspective about us.”

Beyond just hosting thousands of Afghan refugees, Turkey has always held an interest in Afghanistan’s affairs. As a majority-Muslim nation, its deep cultural and linguistic ties with Afghans have made them a less contentious actor to fear.

The historical ally recently announced its offer and clear commitment to take a lead role in securing Kabul’s international airport after the departure of international troops. The security of the airport is crucial for the operation of diplomatic missions out of Afghanistan as Western forces withdraw from the war-torn country.

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

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Taliban Storm Afghan Provincial Capital, Enable Hundreds of Prisoners to Escape

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Ayaz Gul
VOA News
July 7, 2021

ISLAMABAD – Authorities in Afghanistan said Wednesday that pro-government forces had pushed back Taliban insurgents from parts of a northwestern city and regained control of official buildings after hours of fierce clashes.

Fighting erupted in parts of Qala-e-Naw, the capital of Badghis province, after the Taliban assaulted it overnight from multiple directions. Residents and officials said insurgent fighters pushed their way into the city, taking over key security installations, including provincial police headquarters, and freeing about 600 inmates from the central prison.

Video footage released by the Taliban showed the prisoners escaping from the facility and insurgent fighters riding motorbikes moving into different parts of the city.

Provincial governor Hessamuddin Shams told VOA the Taliban captured all the districts around Qala-e-Naw in recent days, enabling them to attack the provincial capital.

Clashes continued in the city throughout Wednesday before Afghan forces, backed by airstrikes, pushed the insurgents out of the city later in the afternoon.

Shams later claimed while talking to reporters that most of the prisoners had been recaptured.
An Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman, Fawad Aman, tweeted government forces inflicted heavy casualties on the “fleeing” insurgents.

Taliban fighters have made rapid territorial advances across Afghanistan since May 1, when the United States and NATO allies formally began withdrawing their last remaining troops from the country.

The insurgents have since overrun at least 150 of Afghanistan’s more than 400 districts.

The assault on Qala-e-Naw was the first by the Taliban against a provincial capital, fueling fears the insurgents intend to regain power in Kabul by force instead of returning to the table for peace talks with Afghan government representatives to negotiate a political settlement.

The Taliban also have encircled other provincial capitals, particularly those in northern and northeastern Afghanistan, raising alarms in neighboring Central Asian states.

The insurgents there have captured dozens of districts in recent days, largely because pro-government forces either retreated to safety or surrendered. About 1,600 soldiers also fled to Tajikistan from the embattled border province of Badakhshan to escape Taliban attacks.

U.S.-led foreign forces are supposed to fully withdraw from Afghanistan by the September 11 deadline set by President Joe Biden mid-April.

The foreign troop exit is the outcome of a peace deal negotiated by Washington with the Taliban in February 2020 under then-President Donald Trump. It requires the insurgents to fight terrorism on Afghan soil and negotiate a political peace deal with the Kabul government.

But the U.S.-brokered intra-Afghan peace negotiations have moved slowly since they started last September in Qatar and have met with little success.

On Tuesday, the U.S. military announced the withdrawal process was more than 90 percent complete. Officials have said the entire process is expected to finish by late August. NATO troops also are following suit, and most of them already have left the country.

American troops vacated Bagram Air Base, the largest such facility in Afghanistan, before dawn on Friday, prompting criticism and complaints by Afghan commanders that they were kept in the dark about the departure plans.

U.S. officials maintain the transfer of Bagram was fully coordinated with Afghan leaders, just like the handing over of other military bases in the country.

The abrupt exit, Afghan officials insisted, allowed looting on the military base by locals before Afghan forces arrived and took control of the facility.

Meanwhile, the acting U.S. ambassador in Kabul, Ross Wilson, urged the Taliban to cease violence and negotiate “in good faith and a genuine will” a permanent end to fighting.

“The Taliban offensive is bringing hardship to communities across Afghanistan already grappling with drought, poverty & COVID. It violates Afghans’ human rights and provokes fear that a system this country’s citizens do not support will be imposed,” Wilson wrote Wednesday on Twitter.

Iran hosted Taliban and Afghan government delegates Wednesday and urged them to move quickly to negotiate a settlement to the crisis.

“Return to the negotiation table among all Afghan factions and commitment to diplomatic solutions is the best choice for Afghanistan’s leaders and political factions,” official media quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as telling the visitors.

Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S., Asad Majeed Khan, echoed those sentiments Wednesday during an appearance in Washington.

“The only way forward is to come to some common understanding,” he said at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “If the peace process unravels, we will go back to the old scenario where you will have militias. The countries will start to hedge also. That is going to be a recipe for disaster.”

Kahn also pushed back against assertions from top Afghan officials that Pakistan has been providing a safe haven and support for the Afghan Taliban.

“Havens is really a question that, frankly, has become irrelevant,” the ambassador said. “The Taliban, in any case, do not need sanctuary in Pakistan because they are increasingly occupying space and territory in Afghanistan.”

Late last month, Pakistan Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed admitted in an interview with the privately-owned Geo News television channel that Taliban families do live in Pakistan, including in areas around Islamabad.

Khan sought to downplay, however, any notion that Pakistan has been less than sincere in its efforts to prevent Afghanistan from descending into chaos.

“What we have made very clear is that we want Afghan parties to talk to each other and we will help in every possible way,” he said.

VOA National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.

Some 600 Afghan Soldiers Repatriated After Fleeing To Tajikistan

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RFE/RL’s Tajik Service
July 7, 2021

About 600 Afghan servicemen who crossed the border into Tajikistan while retreating from Taliban fighters have been flown home on four flights since late on July 6.

A source in Tajikistan’s law enforcement told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service that the last flight carrying 130 Afghan servicemen left the Kulob airport in the morning of July 7.

Tajik authorities have not said how many Afghan servicemen remain in Tajikistan.

Kulob airport officials said they were not authorized to comment on the transfer of Afghan forces.

A Tajik security source told Reuters that some 300 more soldiers are set to return in the coming days.

Hundreds of Afghan soldiers crossed into Tajikistan amid Taliban advances in northern Afghanistan as U.S.-led international forces withdraw from Afghanistan ahead of a self-imposed September 11 deadline.

A doctor told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service that at least three Afghan soldiers seriously injured in the fighting in Afghanistan remain in a hospital in the Jaihun district of Tajikistan.

Meanwhile, a source in the Defense Ministry said a group of Russian military advisers have arrived from Russia to Tajikistan and are inspecting the situation at the Tajik-Afghan border.

The developments in northern Afghanistan have worried bordering states, including Tajikistan, which has said it is mobilizing 20,000 men to reinforce its border.

Tajik authorities have said they are preparing for a possible influx of refugees.

With reporting by Reuters

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Iran Hosts Talks With Afghan, Taliban Delegations As Militants Make Advances

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Zarif

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
July 7, 2021

Iran says it is hosting talks between an Afghan delegation and senior Taliban representatives.

The talks on July 7 come as the militant group continues to push through northern areas of the war-torn country amid the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Opening the talks in Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif welcomed the departure of U.S. troops from its eastern neighbor but warned: “Today, the people and political leaders of Afghanistan must make difficult decisions for the future of their country.”

He also said that negotiations and a commitment to a political solution are the best choices for Afghan leaders and politicians, adding that Tehran is ready to assist.

The Taliban delegation is led by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, a member of its Doha political office, and is visiting Tehran at the formal invitation of Iran to discuss bilateral issues, Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem Wardak told the Afghan Islamic Press (AIP).

The Taliban delegation will also meet with some Afghan personalities in Iran and exchange views on the current situation and resolving problems through negotiations, AIP reported.

The Taliban advances have created concern in Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, including Iran, which hosts 3 million Afghan refugees.

Earlier this year, Zarif warned against a political vacuum in Afghanistan that the Taliban could try to fill.

Based on reporting by IRNA and AFP

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.