Evacuations Stall Amid Death And Chaos At Kabul Airport, Biden To Speak

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By RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi
August 16, 2021

Seven people have been reported killed as thousands of Afghans flooded the runways and terminals of the Kabul airport amid chaos, attempting to leave after Taliban militants seized control of the country ahead of the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces after a presence of nearly two decades.

The Pentagon said on August 16 that U.S. troops killed two people after they were seen “menacingly” brandishing weapons. Officials were not able to say how the five others died, but video from the airport showed hundreds of people trying to force their way onto a moving aircraft, some clinging to landing gear as it attempted to take off. U.S. officials said troops fired warning shots into the air to try and disperse the crowds around the flight, which was taking U.S. diplomats and embassy staff out of the country.

U.S. authorities said they were forced to close down the airport temporarily to restore order and clear the airfield of people so that flights could resume.

In sharp contrast to the situation at the airport, streets in the capital itself were mainly calm as Taliban soldiers patrolled the capital. The heavily fortified diplomatic Green Zone in Kabul appeared to be a ghost town, with countries rushing to evacuate their embassies.

Dozens of governments called for calm to allow for the departure of hundreds of foreign nationals and Afghans seeking to leave the country after the militants toppled the Western-backed government over the weekend.

“Afghanistan stands at a crossroad. Security and well-being of its citizens, as well as international security, are at play,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told journalists as he prepared to convene a meeting of EU foreign ministers for August 17.

EU officials are pleading with the bloc’s 27 capitals to give visas to Afghan workers at the bloc’s mission in Kabul and their families, estimated to number between 500 and 600, European diplomats said.

The government collapsed, with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing abroad on August 15 as the Taliban captured Kabul — the last major city in Afghanistan to hold out against an offensive that accelerated in the space of days as the militants rapidly gained control of territories across the country.

U.S. troops were in control of Kabul’s international airport, where commercial flights were suspended on August 16, stranding many Afghans who sought to flee.

The Hamid Karzai Airport authority said it was forced to cancel all remaining commercial flights “to prevent looting and plundering.” The Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority announced that Kabul airspace had been released to the military and that it advised transit aircraft to reroute.

A number of major airlines said they had stopped using Afghanistan airspace in response to the directive.

The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden was returning to Washington from the nearby Camp David presidential retreat to make a statement at 3:45 Washington time on the latest developments.

For months Biden had downplayed the prospect of the Taliban taking control following an announcement in April that the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops would be withdrawn by August 31. On August 14 he defended his decision, saying an “endless American presence in the middle of another country’s civil conflict was not acceptable to me.”

He now faces rising criticism, especially from Republicans in Congress, after the insurgents’ rapid offensive captured most of Afghanistan’s major cities in less than a week.

“It is certainly the case that the speed with which cities fell was much greater than anyone anticipated,” national-security adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview on NBC’s Today show on August 16.

“At the end of the day, despite the fact that we spent 20 years and tens of billions of dollars to give the best equipment, the best training and the best capacity to the Afghan security forces, we could not give them the will and they ultimately decided that they would not fight for Kabul and they would not fight for the country,” he added.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the Taliban and all other parties to exercise “utmost restraint” in order to protect the lives of Afghans and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Guterres said the rights of women and girls must be protected, in a reference to the Taliban, which imposed a strict interpretation of Sharia law during their 1996-2001 rule. The UN chief will address the body’s Security Council later on August 16 over the situation in Afghanistan.

“The world is following events in Afghanistan with a heavy heart and deep disquiet about what lies ahead,” Guterres said, noting that the Taliban had so far respected the safety of UN personnel in the country.

The UN humanitarian office said members of the humanitarian community remain committed to helping the millions of Afghans needing assistance and are staying in the country despite the “highly complex” security environment.

More than 18.4 million people were already in need of assistance before more than 550,000 were displaced by conflict this year, according to the office, known as OCHA.

Many fear reprisals from the Taliban for their cooperation with government authorities or for working with foreign governments during the two decades the international coalition was present in Afghanistan. Those fears sparked desperate scenes at the airport as they sought a way out of the country.

Ireland’s Ambassador to the UN chided the Security Council for failing to heed warnings over the situation in Afghanistan, saying “now we will have to address the consequences.”

A member of the Taliban administration told Reuters that the group had started collecting weapons from civilians because people no longer need them for personal protection, as the Taliban sought to reassure the international community that Afghans should not fear them.

In a message posted to social media, Taliban co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar called on the militants to remain disciplined, saying: “Now it’s time to test and prove, now we have to show that we can serve our nation and ensure security and comfort of life.”

Mohammad Naeem, a Taliban spokesman in Qatar, where the group has a political office, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that the militants were discussing the future of Afghanistan with a number of Afghan politicians.

Deputy national-security adviser Jon Finer said in an interview on MSNBC that the United States remained engaged in diplomatic conversations with the Taliban in the Qatari capital, Doha.

This story includes reporting by Radio Azadi correspondents on the ground in Afghanistan. Their names are being withheld for their protection.

With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Mullah Baradar — The Taliban’s Most Public Face

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Baradar (center)

By Golnaz Esfandiari
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
August 16, 2021

Abdul Ghani Baradar, known as Mullah Baradar, is a co-founder of the Taliban and senior leader of the militant Islamist group who is expected to hold a top role in governing Afghanistan in the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of the country.

Baradar — the most public face of the Taliban — was also the insurgent group’s representative who signed the landmark February 2020 Doha agreement with the United States that aimed to end the 20-year war in Afghanistan.

Born in 1968 in Uruzgan Province, Baradar is a Durrani Pashtun from the Popalzai tribe. He also served as the Taliban’s deputy defense minister.

Baradar fled to Pakistan after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States that led to the group’s ouster.

Baradar spent eight years in jail in Pakistan after being reportedly arrested in Karachi in 2010 in an operation by U.S. and Pakistani intelligence agents. He was released following a request by U.S. envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad to play a role in the peace talks due to his authority and his reputation for being able to negotiate.

But while the 2020 deal with the United States ended America’s longest war, it also paved the way for the Taliban’s triumphant return to Kabul on August 15 after it seized much of the country within a week as Afghan forces melted away.

‘A Very Calm Person’

Baradar, who was reported to be on his way to Kabul on August 15 for the first time in nearly two decades, could play a senior role in Afghanistan’s future administration.

Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman and negotiator, told the Associated Press on August 16 that the militants would hold talks in the coming days aimed at forming an “open, inclusive Islamic government.”

Baradar, who serves as the head of the Taliban’s political bureau, is a powerful figure who is respected within the group for his military as well as negotiating skills.

In a brief video statement on August 15, Baradar said the group’s victory was unexpectedly swift, adding that the real test would begin now with serving the people and resolving their problems.

Journalist Sami Yousaifzai has covered the Taliban for many years and has met with Baradar.

“Baradar is a very calm person, I met him three or four times, he’s very diplomatic, he only speaks to the point. Even before his capture he was known as a figure silently doing a lot of thinking [for the Taliban]. He has a lot of respect within the Taliban,” Yousafzai told RFE/RL.

“I think he has ambitions to become leader and he’s the one who struck a deal with the Americans very successfully,” he added. “As much as I’ve heard from the Taliban, he also has a desire to be in a senior role in the future.”

Working In The Shadows

Baradar, who became second-in-command after the death of elusive Taliban leader Mullah Omar in 2013, had reportedly worked in the shadows for years, strategizing the bloody Taliban insurgency and appointing the group’s military commanders.

During his detention in Pakistan he was reported to have provided the United States with “useful” information about the inner workings of the militant group.

Baradar is from the same tribe as former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who has stayed in Kabul and has said he is working “to solve the issue of Afghanistan with the Taliban leadership peacefully.”

Baradar, who fought the Soviets in the 1980s, held several posts under the brutal Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001 during which women were stripped of basic rights, including being banned from studying and working and having restricted access to medical care.

The group has in recent weeks attempted to project a more moderate image while many — including scores of Afghans fleeing their country and those who have lived in recent years in areas controlled by the Taliban — remain unconvinced.

In a 2009 interview with Newsweek, Baradar said the group was determined to fight until the expulsion of U.S. troops from the country.

“The history of Afghanistan shows that Afghans never get tired of struggling until they have freed their country. We shall continue our jihad till the expulsion of our enemy from our land,” he said.

In March 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump held a 35-minute phone conversation with the Taliban political leader that Trump described as “very good.”

In November, Baradar met with then U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Doha.

He was also involved in recent days in failed talks with the administration of President Ashraf Ghani, who fled Afghanistan on August 15.

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Rapid Taliban Offensive Avoided Tactical Mistake Made in the 1990s

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Taliban militants (file photo)

Jamie Dettmer
VOA News
August 16, 2021

The rapid Taliban offensive across Afghanistan that culminated Sunday with the flight of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was meticulously planned and executed with ruthless efficiency, say Western military experts.

And they note the Islamist militants appeared to have learned from their tactical mistake in the mid-1990s, when they overran Kabul before having secured the north of the country, allowing opponents to form a Northern Alliance opposition.

This time around, Taliban commanders have been much more methodical, building up momentum by securing outlying districts, securing the main border posts with neighboring Pakistan and Iran, then moving on to regional capitals, and leaving Kabul for last after seizing Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan’s fourth largest city and the onetime stronghold of the Northern Alliance.

The Northern Alliance helped U.S.-led forces topple the Taliban in 2001, after the September 11th terror attacks on the United States.

A pair of veteran warlords had pledged to assist the Afghan army in protecting Mazar-e-Sharif, but as with many other provincial capitals, a strong defense did not materialize.

Demoralized Afghan army forces shrank away or surrendered. The pro-government militias downed their weapons or switched sides after warlords Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ata Mohammad Noor fled abruptly, Abas Ebrahimzada, a local lawmaker, told the Associated Press.

“The Taliban’s success has not happened by chance,” said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat and now a visiting professor at King’s College London. “It is clearly the fruit of preparation and planning. Above all, they have learnt from the experience of 1994 to 1996 when they eventually took Kabul but failed to capture the north,” he wrote in a commentary for the Cipher Brief, an online subscription-based conversation site connecting private and public sector security professionals.

Western diplomats say Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s political chief, and Mullah Yaqoob, son of the Taliban’s founder Mullah Omar, who leads the group’s military commission, were among the main strategic planners behind the offensive, likely plotted over years.

Baradar is a veteran leader and was largely brought up in Kandahar — the Taliban’s birthplace. His military experience goes back even before the formation of the Taliban — he fought against the Russians in the 1980s. After the Russians left, he partnered with Mullah Omar, his brother-in-law, to set up the Taliban movement of young “purist” Islamic scholars with the backing of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. With the same rapidity seen in recent weeks, the Taliban in 1996 seized power after capturing a series of provincial capitals.

Baradar was detained by Pakistani security forces in 2010 at the request of the Obama administration but freed three years ago, again at the request of the Trump administration, to lead the Taliban’s negotiation team in Qatar, where a partially secret deal was struck in February 2020 outlining the principle of a U.S. withdrawal.

Some critics of the Biden’s administration’s decision to withdraw argue that the negotiations in Qatar, which since became deadlocked when it came to peace talks between the Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani and the Taliban, was just seen by the Islamist militants as a staging post to their sweeping into power.  They noted the discrepancies between what the Taliban were saying in Doha, during ultimately fruitless exchanges, and what the group’s fighters were doing.

And it may have lulled Washington into believing that the Taliban were prepared to reach some political accommodations with their Afghan adversaries. Others see the talks as a contributing factor in the demoralization of the Afghan government and its 350,000-strong security forces, trained and equipped at huge cost by the U.S. and Western coalition allies.

“The Taliban’s advances can be attributed primarily to the erosion of morale and cohesion among the government’s security forces and political leadership,” according to Laurel Miller and Andrew Watkins of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research group.

In a commentary Saturday, they noted that since May, while talks in Doha were under way, the Taliban “drove security forces from more than 200 of the country’s roughly 400 districts, in many instances without much fighting.”

They added, “The first districts to fall were home to poorly resourced and surrounded small bands of government forces, and the Taliban reached out to many via local elders, persuading them to leave their posts without fighting. With each new advance, a sense of momentum grew among the insurgents’ own rank and file but also among local communities. Over recent months, the Taliban actively engaged local communities throughout the country with a mixture of disinformation, threats, targeted violence and promises of clemency, even in some cases for troops and civilian officials.”

Back in June, Andrew Wilder of the United States Institute of Peace, a Washington-based independent institute founded by the U.S. Congress, was warning the decision to withdraw U.S. forces “without a cease-fire or a framework for a political agreement between the Taliban and the government caught Afghans and regional countries by surprise,” adding the Taliban was “capitalizing on the moment to seize dozens of districts and project an air of confidence.”

As U.S. troops started the drawdown, psychological and military momentum shifted to the Taliban. After a trip to Kabul, he cautioned, “Afghan security forces suffer from low morale and frequent changes in leadership and supply shortages caused by poor planning and the withdrawal of international air support.”

Western military officials say the failure by the Ghani government to shape a strategic defense plan, give clear instructions to units, and even to supply with any consistency, further corroded the confidence of the Afghan military. And the speed of the Taliban offensive disoriented them as did suddenly being cut off from close U.S. air support, which a lot of their training focused on.

Analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense-focused research group, told the BBC: “Soldiers are often sent to areas where they have no tribal or family connections. One reason why some may have been so quick to abandon their posts without putting up a fight.”

“I think the demoralization factor was predictable but not factored in enough by the decision-makers in Washington,” a senior British military official told VOA on the condition of anonymity.

“I am not surprised that much by the caving in of Afghan forces — with the notable exception of some special forces — or of local pro-government militias throwing in the towel or even swapping allegiances. If you look at what happened as Soviet forces started their withdrawal in the 1980s, something similar happened with militias and their leaders making their calculations and turning against the government as they sensed the central government was doomed,” he added.

Judging by Taliban actions the past few days, the group’s leaders may have factored into their end game calculations that tribal leaders and some veteran warlords would switch sides. And there are signs that the Taliban leadership has been holding secret talks with key local leaders for weeks to assure them that local political and administrative arrangements can continue as much as before as long as overall Taliban authority is accepted, say British officials.

In Herat, near the Iranian border, local leaders were quick to side last week with the Taliban, including Kamran Alizai, Herat’s provincial council chief, after little fighting, Local pro-government warlord Ismail Khan also quickly submitted and was dispatched by the Taliban to Kabul Friday as a go-between for talks with officials still loyal to the Ghani government, according to local reports.

Russia says Afghan president fled with cars and helicopter full of cash – RIA

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Ghani

Reuters: Russia’s embassy in Kabul said on Monday that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country with four cars and a helicopter full of cash and had to leave some money behind as it would not all fit in, the RIA news agency reported. Click here to read more (external link).

Taliban urges government staff to return to work

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Taliban Militant Leadership

Ariana: In a bid to reassure the nation, the Taliban on Monday called on all government employees, including women, to return to work.  The deputy head of the Taliban’s political office in Qatar Abdul Salam Hanafi stressed that diplomatic missions, and military and civilian government employees can work alongside the Taliban without any concerns and that no one’s rights will be violated. Click here to read more (external link).

Russian Ambassador To Kabul To Meet Taliban

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
August 16, 2021

A senior Russian official says the country’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, will hold talks with Taliban representatives on August 17 to discuss the security of Russian citizens and embassy personnel.

Russian presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov told the radio station Ekho Moskvy on August 16 that Zhirnov will meet Taliban representatives in Kabul on how the group plans to provide security for the Russian Embassy in the Afghan capital.

Though Moscow initially said it would not change personnel numbers at the embassy, Kabulov said some staff at the embassy will be given either paid leave or be evacuated to reduce the number of people present during the turmoil.

Zhirnov said that the Taliban militia was already guarding the Russian Embassy.

“Today the Afghan national security military who guarded us left. Taliban representatives assured us again that they will not touch a hair on the heads of Russian diplomats there, saying, ‘You can safely continue working,'” Zhirnov said in a televised interview with Rossia-24.

Russia is estimated to have a staff of around 100 people at the embassy.

On August 15, the Taliban announced it had taken control of the Afghan capital, Kabul, after weeks of capturing large swaths of the country in offensives timed with the announced August 31 departure of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

Based on reporting by Ekho Moskvy, Rossia-24, and Interfax

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

U.S. Policy Under Fire As Taliban Seizes Control In Afghanistan

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Joe Biden

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
August 16, 2021

The sudden seizure of Kabul by Taliban militants after they made rapid advances across the country has triggered sharp criticism of the U.S. policy in Afghanistan, where Washington ultimately failed to build a democratic government capable of withstanding the insurgents despite spending billions of dollars and providing two decades of military support.

U.S. President Joe Biden has yet to issue a statement on the capture of Kabul and the fall of the Afghan government on August 15, but leading figures in his administration have acknowledged they were caught off-guard with the utter speed of the collapse of Afghan security forces ahead of the planned U.S. military withdrawal by the beginning of September.

Biden, who has spent months downplaying the prospect of the Taliban taking control, is now facing rising criticism, especially from Republicans in Congress, with critics saying that the United States’ reputation as a global power had been badly tarnished.

“It is a colossal failure, and it is a humiliation,” former UN envoy to Afghanistan Peter Galbraith said on August 16, adding that it remained to be seen how it affects “America’s standing in the world.”

Galbraith told Reuters that rampant corruption within the Afghan police and all levels of government meant that money that the United States was giving in aid often ended up in Taliban hands, while local warlords, government officials, and police cooperated with the militant group.

Others, such as William Maley, emeritus professor at Australian National University, say several missteps led to the collapse of the Western-backed government in Afghanistan, but ultimately “appalling U.S. decision-making lies at the heart of the tragedy.”

“It is hard to see how Biden can emerge from this disaster without his credibility shredded, but the greater loss is to the credibility of the United States, which increasingly appears a fading power internationally,” he said.

“When historians look back at the shambolic U.S. exit from Afghanistan, it may increasingly appear a critical marker of America’s decline in the world, far eclipsing the flight from Saigon in 1975,” he added.

Much has changed in the two decades since the Taliban was overthrown by the U.S.-led invasion nearly 20 years ago, and some analysts have expressed concern that gains in areas such as women’s rights and the rights of the Shi’ite Hazara minority group will quickly disappear.

Under the 1996-2001 Taliban rule, women could not work, girls were not allowed to attend school, and women had to cover their faces and be accompanied by a male relative if they wanted to venture out of their homes.

U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview on NBC’s Today show on August 16 that while the situation on the ground in Afghanistan deteriorated faster than anticipated, Biden is prepared to marshal the international community on human rights in Afghanistan, where the Taliban is seizing power.

“He is prepared to marshal the international community on this issue. He cares passionately about these human rights questions, and we will stay focused on them in the period ahead,” Sullivan said.

“But that was not a reason for the United States to enter a third decade of war in the middle of an internal conflict in another country,” he added.

At home, Biden may feel even more heat as Republicans seize on the issue, saying it raises security fears inside the United States.

“We are going to go back to a pre-9/11 state. A breeding ground for terrorism,” Representative Michael McCaul (Republican-Texas) told CNN on August 15.

In an interview, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace tried to deflect some of the criticism from Biden and the United States, saying the Taliban’s takeover was a “failure of the international community.”

Assessing that the West’s intervention was a job only half-done, the former British Army officer maintained that the 20-year intervention by U.S.-led forces “wasn’t a waste,” but he accused Western powers of being short-sighted in policy matters.

“If it’s a failure, it’s a failure of the international community to not realize that you don’t fix things overnight,” he told the BBC, citing “a failure to recognize that military might on its own” could not completely resolve the situation in Afghanistan.

“Half the mission on its own…was entirely successful,” he said, pointing to the removal of the Taliban following the September 11, 2001, attacks and the death of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, which he said made the world safer.

But “that doesn’t mean that the next 20 years are going to be the same,” Wallace added, echoing concerns about the impact of the hard-line group’s resurgence on world security.

With reporting by AFP, Reuters, the BBC, and AP

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Related

The Taliban Is Back — What Happens Next?

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Taliban’s Baradar (left) and Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi (right). File photo.

Frud Bezhan
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
August 15, 2021

The situation in the Afghan capital, Kabul, is changing rapidly as the Taliban has moved into the city and taken over parts of it, including the Presidential Palace. This happened as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and security forces in the city melted away.

Though much is unknown, here are some of the key questions for the war-torn country as the militant Islamist group takes control of the entire country.

What Happened To The Democratically Elected Afghan Government?

The internationally recognized government in Kabul has largely collapsed.

President Ghani flew out of Afghanistan on August 15, effectively ceding power to the Taliban as its fighters surrounded the capital and later entered it. He landed in neighboring Tajikistan and was reported to be headed to a third country.

Key members of Ghani’s administration — including First Vice President Amrullah Saleh, a fierce Taliban critic; National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib; and Fazel Fazly, the head of the administrative office of the president — also fled the country.

Some senior government officials, including cabinet ministers, remain in the city.

Who’s In Charge Now?

Afghanistan’s security forces appeared to be partially in control of the city as of late on August 15 but were ceding it rapidly to Taliban fighters.

After initially pledging not to enter the city, the Taliban said it had sent its fighters into “some parts” of the city, allegedly to maintain order and prevent looting. There were some reports of sporadic gunfire around the city, but there did not appear to be major fighting.

Some Afghan soldiers and police officers were seen abandoning their posts, taking off their uniforms, and fleeing with their weapons.

Taliban commanders were shown walking through the Presidential Palace in central Kabul and taking down an Afghan flag in what appeared to be Ghani’s office.

The Taliban fighters quickly took control of key government buildings and Taliban commanders were shown walking through the Presidential Palace and taking down an Afghan flag in what appeared to be Ghani’s office.

Kabul’s international airport is still controlled by a few thousand U.S. troops who are securing the safe departure of foreign diplomats, expats, and Afghans who worked for foreign entities from Kabul.

Omar Samad, a former Afghan diplomat in Europe, said that “there are security units all over but no commander in chief at the helm after the top echelon fled the country.”

Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s influential ex-president, announced the creation of a “coordination council” on August 15. He said the body would oversee the peaceful transition of power.

The three-man council includes Abdullah Abdullah, the second-highest government official in Kabul, and Hekmatyar Gulbuddin, one of Afghanistan’s most notorious former warlords and a former militant leader.

“It seems this council is in charge,” says Ali Adili, a researcher at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent think tank in Kabul. “But it’s unclear who has authorized such a council,” he added. “The formation of the council has yet to reassure the people of Kabul.”

What Government Is Likely To Emerge?

Afghan Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakawal said power would be handed over to a transitional administration. But the Taliban appeared to quash those claims, insisting that the group expected a complete handover of power.

“I fear that the Taliban will take over directly or we will have an interim government that is essentially a Taliban proxy,” said Haroun Rahimi, an assistant professor of law at the American University of Afghanistan in Kabul. “In that case, the future political system is unlikely to be inclusive leading many Afghans to perceive it as imposed and illegitimate.”

U.S. officials had said that Washington would not recognize a Taliban government if the militant group forcibly seized power.

The Taliban has previously said they favored a transitional government if Ghani stepped down. But it is unclear if they will follow through on their pledge.

“Now that Ghani has fled, we will know over the next day or two whether we are headed toward a broad-based set-up or a one-party system, even though the signs point to a more inclusive interim period,” Samad said.

Torek Farhadi, a former adviser to the Afghan government, said if there is a more inclusive interim setup, the Taliban was likely to be dominant but there could be room for other political actors, although he expects it to be lesser-known personalities and stakeholders rather than figures from the current political elite in Kabul.

“The Taliban will probably form a government of their choice, with representatives from all provinces and ethnic groups, but not necessarily from the political figures we know,” Farhadi said.

What About Longer-Term?

A Taliban-dominated government in Kabul is likely to emerge, analysts say.

During its rule, power was centralized in the hands of an “Amir ul-Momineen,” or leader of the faithful. The supreme leader was the head of state and had ultimate authority. This was Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s spiritual leader and founder.

The Taliban has rejected democracy and elections, branding them “foreign imports.”

It is unclear if the Taliban will reestablish its brutal former regime. When it ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the fundamentalist Islamists oppressed women, massacred ethnic and religious minorities, and banned music and television.

Early indications suggest the militants will reimpose many of their repressive laws and retrograde policies in Kabul — as they have done in other captured cities and towns throughout Afghanistan.

The extremist group has banned women from working outside the home, severely limited girls’ education, and required women to be accompanied by a male relative if they leave their homes. There have also been several reports of young women being forced to marry Taliban fighters.

Even then, the militants have sought to project a more moderate face, promising to respect women’s rights and protect both foreigners and Afghans. “We assure the people, particularly in the city of Kabul, that their properties, their lives are safe,” Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said on August 15.

What Leverage Will Outside Powers Have?

Western powers had previously pledged to remain engaged in Afghanistan even after the departure of all foreign forces from the country by August 31.

“It is crucial that, as promised, the international community does not once again walk away and abandon Afghanistan as was the case between 1989 and 2001,” Samad said.

“It is also imperative that the Taliban behave in a manner that can retain international attention and support, especially regarding their policies on human [and] gender rights and certain core liberties like freedom of expression.”

Analysts say the United States and other foreign powers can influence Taliban behavior by offering international aid to the destitute country and official recognition to the group. Some say Washington is betting that the Taliban will be reluctant to rule as an international pariah, as it did in the 1990s.

But it is unclear if international legitimacy is still important to the Taliban given that it is on the verge of capturing the entire country — late on August 15 it controlled 27 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

“If the Taliban show that they are not interested in gaining domestic legitimacy through an inclusive government, then international legitimacy could be one of the few sources of leverage left,” Rahimi said.

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.