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Dramatic Power Shift in Afghanistan Seen as Strategic Setback for India
Anjana Pasricha
VOA News
August 30, 2021
NEW DELHI – Less than six years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Afghanistan’s Parliament building in Kabul — a landmark symbol of the fledgling democracy that New Delhi hoped would become a hedge against its rival, Pakistan.
But with the dramatic power shift after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, India faces a strategic setback in a region where it confronts Pakistan and its other rival, China, along tense borders.
Analysts say with Pakistan once again in a dominant position in Afghanistan and China seeking to boost its clout in the South Asian region, India could see testing times.
“The changing equations in Afghanistan present a challenge for India,” Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said Sunday, addressing the Defense Services Staff Colleges.
Key concerns
One of India’s key concerns is that Afghanistan will become a haven for militants from Pakistan and that the Taliban victory will embolden anti-India terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which have been at the forefront of a three-decade-long violent separatist insurgency in Indian Kashmir.
“There is no doubt that the Taliban victory in Afghanistan is going to have an inspirational effect on Islamist opposition everywhere, including Kashmir,” said Gautam Mukhopadhaya, the former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan. “India will have to be on guard not only in Kashmir but the rest of India, too, where an Islamist victory in the neighborhood could fire up fringe elements.”
For India, the huge gains it made by building “soft power” in Afghanistan in the wake of the 2001 U.S. invasion of the country could be in jeopardy.
New Delhi has invested $3 billion in development projects that included schools, roads, dams and hospitals in all of Afghanistan’s 34 districts in the last two decades.
India gave scholarships to thousands of Afghans to study in India and established close links with ousted Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani. India also helped organize trade routes to the landlocked country.
“No matter how you slice it, New Delhi has been dealt a strategic blow. Not only will the Taliban be in control, but India’s rivals, Pakistan and China, will be poised to step up their role in Afghanistan,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center in Washington. “It’s a pretty major change for India. Once Afghanistan’s closest partner in South Asia, India may well not even have a formal relationship with Kabul.”
Analysts say China could step in to fill the gap in providing much-needed economic assistance as it seeks to expand its influence deeper into Central Asia.
Meanwhile, India has no option but to wait and watch and keep channels of communication open to the Taliban.
Domestic media reports say the country opened a line to the group in June, but New Delhi has been criticized for doing it too late. India has evacuated its embassy in Kabul and is still trying to bring back citizens left behind.
Much of India’s hopes on continuing to play a role in Afghanistan will depend on the policies that the Taliban, which have been projecting a moderate public face, put in place, analysts say.
The Taliban, long an anti-India group, have made an outreach saying they would like New Delhi to continue its development work in Afghanistan. In a statement on the group’s social media platforms, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, deputy head of the Taliban’s office in Doha, said Sunday the group gives due importance to political, economic and trade ties with India and wants these to continue.
Some analysts say such statements show that the “game is far from over.”
“There are windows open, and let us see if they can be converted into doors,” South Asia expert Sukh Deo Muni said in New Delhi. “All is certainly not lost. Let us see what kind of Taliban regime emerges. I would not rush to this conclusion that India has lost. It’s a fluid situation.”
Indian officials have made no comments, and New Delhi will remain cautious.
“It is to be seen if Pakistan tries to prevent such overtures or sabotages them,” Mukhopadhaya pointed out. “Pakistan seems to want to bring in China to reinforce its control over Afghanistan by economic means.”
How ties shape up between India and Afghanistan will hinge on the Taliban, experts say.
“India can have leverage if the Taliban feels that a relationship with India is something worth pursuing,” according to Kugelman. “The Taliban may conclude it’s better off engaging commercially with countries it’s more comfortable with, like China, Pakistan and Turkey.”
Skepticism on whether the Taliban will change runs deep in India, which has bitter memories of the group that in 1999 gave safe passage to Pakistan to the hijackers of an Indian Airlines plane that had landed in Kandahar. New Delhi also remains deeply wary of the Taliban’s close links to Pakistan’s military spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence.
“It is hard for a leopard to change its spots. The true nature of the Taliban and its control by Pakistan will show up, especially down the rank and file,” said Mukhopadhaya.
But as equations change in South Asia, where Beijing has long been challenging its predominant position, New Delhi has indicated it will continue to firm up strategic alliances with the United States and other countries that have been working together to counter a rising China.
“We are changing our strategy, and the formation of Quad underlines this,” Defense Minister Singh said Sunday.
The Quad is an informal grouping of India, the United States, Japan and Australia.
Taliban Militants Said To Have Arrested Prominent Afghan Cleric
By RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi
August 30, 2021
The family of influential Afghan cleric Maulvi Mohammad says he has been arrested by the Taliban.
The hard-line Islamist group took control of Afghanistan more than two weeks ago, triggering concerns that it will return the war-torn country to the repressive rule it imposed when last in power from 1996-2001.
Sardar Zadran’s son Samiullah told RFE/RL on August 30 that Taliban fighters in a car drove his father away from his home in the eastern province of Khost the previous day.
A photo was later released appearing to show Sardar Zadran, the former head of the Khost council of religious scholars, blindfolded and seated.
Samiullah said he didn’t know the reason for the arrest.
Earlier, the family of an Afghan folk singer and musician, Fawad Andarabi, said he had been shot dead by a Taliban fighter late last week.
In reaction to Andarabi’s alleged killing, Agnes Callamard, the secretary-general of Amnesty International, cited “mounting evidence that the Taliban of 2021 is the same as the intolerant, violent, repressive Taliban of 2001.”
“20 years later. Nothing has changed on that front,” Callamard tweeted.
This story is based on reporting by Radio Azadi correspondents on the ground in Afghanistan. Their names are being withheld for their protection.
Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.
First WHO Health Supplies Land in Taliban-Held Afghanistan
Ayaz Gul
VOA News
August 30, 2021
ISLAMABAD – The World Health Organization says an aircraft provided by Pakistan Monday delivered the first shipment of much-needed medicine and health supplies to Afghanistan since the country came under control of the Taliban.
The humanitarian assistance was loaded in Dubai and flown directly to the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif, said a WHO statement. The supplies will be immediately delivered to 40 health facilities in 29 provinces across Afghanistan.
The Taliban marched into Kabul on August 15 after their weeklong stunning battlefield advances overran 33 of the country’s 34 provinces without facing any significant resistance from security forces of the ousted Afghan government.
The WHO said Monday that a reliable humanitarian air bridge is urgently required to scale up the collective humanitarian effort.
“After days of non-stop work to find a solution, I am very pleased to say that we have now been able to partially replenish stocks of health facilities in Afghanistan and ensure that — for now – WHO-supported health services can continue,” said Dr. Ahmed Al Mandhari, WHO regional director for the eastern Mediterranean.
The 12.5 metric ton supplies delivered consist of trauma kits and interagency emergency health kits, and are enough to cover the basic health needs of more than 200,000 people, as well as provide 3,500 surgical procedures and treat 6,500 trauma patients.
The WHO noted that Monday’s flight was the first of three planned with Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to fill urgent shortages in medicine and medical supplies in Afghanistan.
Al-Mandhari thanked the Pakistani government for its efforts to support the WHO and the people of Afghanistan.
“Humanitarian agencies such as WHO have faced enormous challenges in sending life-saving supplies to Afghanistan in recent weeks due to security and logistics constraints. The support of the Pakistani people has been timely and life-saving,” he added.
The security crisis stemming from the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and ensuing efforts by the U.S.-led Western nations to evacuate their personnel along with Afghan allies through the beleaguered Kabul airport had disrupted crucial humanitarian supplies into the conflict-torn country.
The WHO called for the world to remain focused on meeting the needs of the people of Afghanistan at this critical time.
“The world’s attention over the past two weeks has been focused on the air evacuation from Kabul airport. But the demanding humanitarian work of meeting the needs of tens of millions of vulnerable Afghans who remain in the country is now beginning,” the world body said.
On Sunday, UNICEF said in a statement that children were particularly bearing the brunt of the increased conflict and insecurity in the past weeks. The agency noted that children are “at greater risk than ever” in the wake of a security crisis, skyrocketing food prices, a severe drought, the spread of the coronavirus, and upcoming harsh winter conditions.
“If the current trend continues, UNICEF predicts that one million children under 5 in Afghanistan will suffer from severe acute malnutrition — a life-threatening disease.”
More than 4 million children, including 2.2 million girls, are out of school while around 300,000 children have been forced out of their homes due to the conflict, according to UNICEF.
The agency warned partners against cutting aid to Afghanistan. “The needs of the children of Afghanistan have never been greater. We cannot abandon them now.”
Tolo News in Dari – August 30, 2021
China Sees Opportunity After America’s Withdrawal From Afghanistan. But Can Beijing Do Any Better?
Time: Today, in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal, Chinese strategists are thinking bigger, and eyeing deals to exploit Afghanistan’s mineral deposits. An Afghan parallel to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor—the $50 billion development of factories, power plants and pipelines from Kashgar in Xinjiang province to the Pakistani port of Gwadar in the Persian Gulf—might even be on the cards. Click here to read more (external link).
Afghan Journalists’ Open Letter to World: ‘Protect Us’
Tolo News: Afghan journalists, cameramen and photographers in an open letter called on the United Nations, the international community, human rights organizations and media-supporting organizations to protect them against threats. The letter was published on Saturday and signed by 150 reporters. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Islamic State Claims It Fired Rockets At Kabul Airport Amid Race To Evacuate Thousands
By RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi
August 30, 2021
Islamic State has claimed responsibility for firing six rockets at Kabul’s airport on August 30.
The group’s Nasher News said on its Telegram channel that six Katyusha rockets were fired in the attack.
U.S. officials have been quoted as saying that anti-missile defenses intercepted as many as five rockets fired at the airport as a mass evacuation of people from the war-torn country enters into its final hours before all foreign troops withdraw by an August 31 deadline.
There were no immediate reports of casualties from the August 30 attack, which comes the day before the United States is set to withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan, drawing to a close its 20-year military presence in the war-torn country.
The rocket attack comes in the wake of the United States carrying out two separate drone strikes on targets affiliated with Islamic State (IS) since August 26, when the group claimed responsibility for killing more than 170 people in a suicide attack outside the airport.
The U.S.-led airlift has taken more than 117,000 foreigners and Afghans out of Kabul airport since the Taliban took control of the capital over two weeks ago.
As the August 31 deadline set by President Joe Biden approaches, U.S. forces are now mostly focused on flying themselves and American diplomats out safely.
The White House said that Biden was briefed “on the rocket attack at Hamid Karzai International Airport” early on August 30, and was informed that operations there “continue uninterrupted.”
The president “has reconfirmed his order that commanders redouble their efforts to prioritize doing whatever is necessary to protect our forces on the ground,” spokesman Jen Psaki said in a statement.
After the August 30 attack, local residents in Kabul reported shrapnel falling on their homes and into the streets.
About 2 kilometers from the airport, an AFP photographer took images of a destroyed car with a launcher system still visible in the back seat.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press quoted witnesses as saying that rockets struck the Salim Karwan neighborhood near Kabul’s airport. They said that gunfire followed the explosions.
U.S. military cargo planes continued their evacuations at the airport after the rocket fire, according to the news agency.
Biden and other top U.S. officials have warned that the final hours of the operation in Kabul will be extremely dangerous.
On August 29, the U.S. military said a drone strike on a vehicle in Kabul thwarted an imminent attack by Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) on the military evacuation at the airport.
A Taliban spokesman said the strike resulted in civilian casualties and chided the United States for failing to inform the militants before ordering the strike. The Tolo news agency said at least 10 civilians died in the air strike.
The U.S. military said it was investigating the reports, which said the dead included children.
“We know that there were substantial and powerful subsequent explosions resulting from the destruction of the vehicle, indicating a large amount of explosive material inside that may have caused additional casualties. It is unclear what may have happened, and we are investigating further,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
The U.S. military also carried out a retaliatory drone strike in Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar Province the previous day that the Pentagon said killed two members of IS-K.
The strikes came after an IS-K suicide attack outside the airport killed some 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops — the deadliest single incident for American forces in Afghanistan in a decade.
In recent years, IS-K has been behind some of the deadliest attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
While both IS and the Taliban are hard-line Sunni Islamist groups, they are bitter foes.
The Taliban has promised an inclusive government since sweeping back into power on August 15, and to exercise a softer brand of rule compared with their first regime in Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001.
But many Afghans fear a repeat of the militants’ brutal interpretation of Islamic law, as well as violent retribution for working with foreign militaries and missions and with the previous Western-backed government.
Late on August 29, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that the group’s leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, was in the southern city of Kandahar.
A Taliban source said the Taliban was “preparing for a mass gathering after August 31 to discuss the future government in Afghanistan.”
As evacuations from Kabul draw to a close, Biden’s national-security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on August 29 that for those U.S. citizens seeking immediately to leave Afghanistan by the looming deadline, “we have the capacity to have 300 Americans, which is roughly the number we think are remaining, come to the airport and get on planes in the time that is remaining.”
Western allies have warned that thousands of at-risk Afghans have not been able to get on the evacuation flights by the United States and its allies.
But the United States and dozens of other countries have committed to ensuring that “our citizens, nationals and residents, employees, Afghans who have worked with us and those who are at risk can continue to travel freely to destinations outside Afghanistan.”
“We will continue issuing travel documentation to designated Afghans, and we have the clear expectation of and commitment from the Taliban that they can travel to our respective countries,” according to a joint statement published on the State Department website on August 29.
Russia was not among the signatories, but the Russian Embassy in Kabul said it was accepting applications from those seeking to leave Afghanistan on additional evacuation flights, after Moscow evacuated about 360 people from the country last week.
Meanwhile, another plane carrying 150 Afghans arrived in Albania, the Albanian Foreign Ministry said, bringing the total number of Afghans brought to the Balkan country to 607.
The ministry said the plane had come from the United Arab Emirates.
Later on August 30, the United States said it will host a virtual ministerial meeting with allies such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain, Turkey, Qatar, the European Union, and NATO to discuss “an aligned approach [on Afghanistan] for the days and weeks ahead.”
French President Emmanuel Macron has said that France and Britain plan to propose at a meeting of the UN Security Council’s permanent members on August 30 a resolution “aimed at defining a safe zone in Kabul under UN control” that would allow for continued “humanitarian operations.”
The permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are Russia, China, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.
In Rome, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the Afghan crisis exposed the need for the bloc to set up a rapid reaction force of about 5,000 soldiers to respond to similar events in future.
“As Europeans we have not been able to send 6,000 soldiers around the Kabul airport to secure the area. The U.S. have been, we haven’t,” Borrell told the newspaper Il Corriere della Sera in an interview.
This story includes reporting by Radio Azadi correspondents on the ground in Afghanistan. Their names are being withheld for their protection.
With reporting by AFP, Reuters, and AP
Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.
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Taliban: Male and Female Students to Study in Separate Classrooms
Tolo News: Abdul Baqi Haqqani, who has been newly appointed as the acting minister for the Ministry of Higher Education, says that in the new government, classrooms for female students will be separate from those of males. Click here to read more (external link).
Afghan Musicians Fear Being Silenced By The Taliban
Haroon Bacha
Abubakar Siddique
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
August 29, 2021
Young musician Ahmad Khan says doomsday arrived for him when the hard-line Taliban movement overran the Afghan capital, Kabul — the conclusion of a dramatic sweep across the war-torn country that saw Afghanistan’s pro-Western government melt away.
Khan — using a pseudonym for security reasons — had eked out a living playing his “rubab,” a stringed instrument similar to the guitar. He was happy with his moderate income supplemented by generous tips when he performed at weddings and other celebrations.
But Khan has been in hiding since the Taliban took over Kabul on August 15 — unable to make music or earn money.
“We are extremely anxious and terrified now because our art was also our livelihood,” he told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal. “We have no other skills and won’t be able to pursue another job or career. Unlike others, we have no prospect of being allowed to escape to another country.”
Khan wants Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers to announce their policies on music, musicians, and artistic expression in general.
“We really don’t know what our fate will be,” he says. “We request that the Taliban tell us what we can and can’t do so that we can get on with our lives. Musicians are already being forced to sell their belongings to survive the current uncertainty.”
Shari’a Law
The Taliban has thus far strongly hinted it would reimpose a ban on music.
“Our future political system and laws will be based on the Islamic Shari’a law, so we will allow everything that Shari’a permits,” Zabiullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, told journalists on July 24. “If something is not allowed by Shari’a, my hope will be that our compatriots chasing such professions will reconsider their choices. It is better for all of us that we spend our lives in accordance with the Islamic teachings.”
In an interview with The New York Times, Mujahid said music would not be allowed in public. “Music is forbidden in Islam,” he claimed, “but we’re hoping that we can persuade people not to do such things instead of pressuring them.”
The Afghan media has been confused over whether the Taliban will permit people to play music or wants to ban them from doing so.
One official who requested anonymity due to security fears says the incoming Taliban chief of the state Radio Television Afghanistan has told staff to stop playing music. But another employee, also requesting anonymity, says he was unaware of any such order.
Several private television and radio stations, however, continue to broadcast some music and continue to air local and dubbed soap operas. They too, however, are careful about what kind of music and shows they broadcast in this transition period under which the Taliban has promised to install an “inclusive Islamic government.”
Other radio stations in Afghanistan have, however, stopped playing music entirely and no longer broadcast things such as game shows, sitcoms, and soap operas. They are instead broadcasting Koranic recitations and similar religious programming.
In the eastern province of Nangarhar, one musician told Radio Mashaal that the fate of some 470 registered musicians and singers hangs in the balance as they wait to hear from the new head of the province’s office of culture and information.
“We were always opposed to vulgar dance videos and other such things done in bad taste,” he told Radio Mashaal, requesting anonymity due to security fears. “We do hope that the Taliban will not completely ban us from playing traditional Afghan music.”
‘Hanging Instruments On Trees’
But many Afghan musicians are bracing for the worst.
“My concerns are based on the past policies of the Taliban against music, art, and culture,” Ahmad Sarmast, the head of the Afghanistan National Institute of Music (ANIM), told Radio Mashaal.
Sarmast went to Australia in July to meet family and seek medical treatment before the fast-paced events this month that saw the collapse of the government. He is worried that the Taliban’s previous attitude toward music will also be reflected in their future policies.
“We all clearly remember the past: the destruction of the musical instruments, hanging instruments on trees, and punishing people for playing, learning, or listening to music,” he says, recalling the extensive Taliban prohibition on music and other arts when they ruled from 1996-2001. “Based on how the foot soldiers of the Taliban are now behaving in Kabul, we have reason to worry about the future of music in Afghanistan.”
Opened in 2010, ANIM is a vibrant music school that has revived Afghanistan’s musical heritage. Its orchestra has performed around the world and the institution has trained a new generation of musicians, composers, and singers. But the school has been closed since the Taliban rolled into Kabul, and Sarmast says it won’t open unless there are security guarantees from the new authorities.
“I am worried about the safety and security of our students and the future of our school,” he says.
The ban on music is likely to become a hallmark of the Taliban’s second stint in power.
Jasmina Lazovic, program coordinator of global monitoring at Freemuse, a Swedish-based NGO working to preserve artistic expression, says the prevailing uncertainty about Afghanistan’s future government puts artists in a vulnerable position — particularly women and those who have been known for work that tackles the issue of human rights or took part in state activities under the previous government.
“The current situation in the country can be best described as a state of uncertainty, followed by a deeply rooted fear of reprisals against artists,” Lazovic told Gandhara, adding that Western governments should also help evacuate artists who are at risk. “The key further step would be to work with the future Afghan government and get guarantees that [it] will respect human rights in line with the best international practices and international human rights conventions to which Afghanistan has been party to for decades.”
The Taliban’s return is reverberating in neighboring countries, too.
Shakeela Naz, a popular singer in Pakistan, has a large fan base among Pashtuns in Afghanistan. She is urging the Taliban to look at the policies in other Muslim countries before imposing a blanket ban on music and other performing arts in Afghanistan.
“In [conservative] Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia [there is] music, dramas, poetry, film, and other arts,” she told Radio Mashaal. “Oppressing artists will not achieve anything as artists in Afghanistan have already faced a lot suffering because of the war there.”
Abdul Ghafoor Liwal, an Afghan writer, poet, and former official, says preserving and promoting Afghanistan’s arts and cultural heritage will be a key responsibility of its government.
“Artists and musicians are innocent members of society who have no role in shaping or influencing government policies. They need to be protected,” he told Radio Mashaal. “Immediate steps need to be taken to protect them.”
Although Sarmast sees little hope, he is appealing to the militant Islamist group.
“I call on the Taliban to keep this [musical] institution shining — let this institution progress,” he says.