Taliban Denies Deputy Prime Minister Baradar Shot Dead Over Internal Dispute

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Baradar

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
September 14, 2021

The Taliban is denying reports that the former head of their political office in Doha has been killed in a shoot-out with another senior Taliban figure during an argument over how to divide power in a Taliban-led caretaker government.

The denials come amid persistent rumors of internal divisions within the Taliban as it tries to transform from a guerrilla insurgency to a group that can govern Afghanistan. The Taliban also denies it is facing internal divisions.

Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen says Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the recently named deputy prime minister of the Taliban-led government, has “issued a voice message” rejecting “all those claims that he was injured or killed in a clash.”

“He says it is lies and totally baseless,” Shaheen said in a statement.

The Taliban also has released photos of a handwritten note claiming Baradar had recently left Kabul for Kandahar. But information being released by the Taliban has only served to fuel speculation about his fate.

Baradar has not been seen in public for several days. He was not part of a Taliban delegation that met in Kabul on September 12 with visiting Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani.

The Taliban has released video that it claims was taken of Baradar at a recent meeting in Afghanistan’s southern city of Kandahar. But the footage only shows the back of a man’s head. RFE/RL could not immediately verify the identity of the man shown.

The Taliban also has released photographs of Baradar that it claims were taken recently. But the dates those photographs were taken could not be independently confirmed.

Taliban supreme leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada also has not been seen in public since the Taliban seized Kabul on August 15. A written statement was issued last week in Mullah Haibatullah’s name to announce the Taliban’s caretaker government.

Speculation over the fate of both senior Taliban figures has been bolstered by the circumstances surrounding the death of the movement’s founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, in 2013.

That’s because the Taliban’s leadership council, the so-called Quetta Shura, continued to issue statements in Mullah Omar’s name for two years after his death.

The Taliban only confirmed Mullah Omar’s death after the internationally backed Afghan government in Kabul announced in 2015 that he had died.

That set off bitter disputes among the insurgency’s leadership — with recriminations between Baradar’s allies in the Quetta Shura and a Taliban faction further to the east that is dominated by the so-called Haqqani network.

It took a restructuring of the Taliban’s military chain of command after Mullah Omar’s death to keep the insurgency united.

But now, as the Taliban has been transforming its military command into a governing structure, alliances and tribal configurations that kept the rival factions together in recent years are being tested.

Afghan security experts are questioning whether the Taliban will be able to stay united to govern, or soon splinter into regional fiefdoms.

Just two weeks ago, Baradar had been seen as the likely head of the Taliban caretaker government.

He has been one of the movement’s most recognized faces in recent years because of his role heading the Taliban political office in Doha.

Baradar was one of three deputy Taliban leaders until last week, when the Taliban-led caretaker government was announced.

He was the only deputy leader of the insurgency who was not named to head a major ministry.

Sirajuddin Haqqani, the insurgency’s deputy leader who heads the Haqqani network and commanded all Taliban military operations in the eastern half of Afghanistan, was named as caretaker interior minister.

Mullah Yaqoob Omar, the son of Mullah Omar who headed the insurgency’s military operations in the western half of the country, was named caretaker defense minister.

The Afghanistan Analysts Network concluded from those appointments that Baradar lost out in internal Taliban disputes over the formation of the caretaker government.

Experts from the Afghanistan Analysts Network say Mullah Haibatullah’s absence from all public and private events, nearly a month after the Taliban seized Kabul, suggests that he may no longer be alive.

They note that even the reclusive Mullah Omar had made some public appearances when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan during the late 1990s — although not on video. Mullah Omar also had met with foreign officials and had given radio statements and interviews before he died.

For now, the Afghanistan Analysts Network concludes, Mullah Haibatullah “appears to function as a symbolic figurehead who can unify without actually appearing or speaking.”

But Masato Toriya, a specialist on the region from Tokyo University, says the threat of a civil war reigniting in Afghanistan now looks quite real.

Toriya says internal rifts within the Taliban are being exacerbated by the Taliban-led government’s complete lack of management experience and deteriorating living conditions across Afghanistan.

“One cannot deny the prospect of Afghanistan’s new slide into civil war,” Toriya concludes.

With reporting by Reuters, The Guardian, BBC, and TASS

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Related

  • BBC: It has been said that the row stemmed from divisions over who in the Taliban should take credit for their victory in Afghanistan. Mr Baradar reportedly believes that the emphasis should be placed on diplomacy carried out by people like him, while members of the Haqqani group – which is run by one of the most senior Taliban figures – and their backers say it was achieved through fighting.

Ismail Khan: Taliban rule will not last, Panjshir resistance is expanding

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Former Afghan President Karzai Still Working For An Inclusive Taliban Government

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Hamid Karzai

By RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi
September 14, 2021

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he’s hopeful the Taliban-led government will eventually become inclusive and draw its strength from domestic legitimacy, which he says is the key to earning international recognition.

Karzai said in an exclusive interview with RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that he continues to urge Taliban leaders to diversify their administration after last week’s announcement of an all-male cabinet made up of its senior leaders and dominated by Pashtuns.

“The current [Taliban] government is a caretaker government,” Karzai told Radio Azadi by telephone from the Afghan capital, Kabul. “Our hope was that it would be inclusive — we are still trying to achieve that. Our advice to our Taliban brothers is that the sooner they can make an inclusive government in which all the people of Afghanistan can see themselves, that will help bring stability and better serve [the Afghan people].”

Karzai, 63, ruled Afghanistan for more than 13 years, leaving office in 2014. He was first chosen as the leader of a transitional government for Afghanistan in December 2001 after the demise of the hard-line Taliban regime following a U.S.-led invasion. He was then elected to two five-year terms starting in 2004.

He remained a prominent Afghan political figure after peacefully transferring power to his successor, Ashraf Ghani, in September 2014. Karzai went on to frequently appear in the Afghan and international media where he campaigned for peace in his country through reconciliation among Afghans.

He is now urging the Taliban to strengthen unity among Afghans and particularly women, which will help the regime gain recognition and continued aid from the global community.

“It is crucial for our country that our contact with the world is based on internal legitimacy and our representative government can be a mirror of Afghanistan — this will be beneficial,” he said. “Until we reach that stage we should strive to be in contact with the world to attract aid. The current government…and all Afghans have the responsibility to cultivate relations with the world so that they result in aid and assistance so that our international contacts are not severed.”

As the Taliban entered Kabul on August 15, Karzai remained in the capital even after Ghani fled. He formed a committee with Abdullah Abdullah, former head of the Afghan reconciliation council, and Hizb-e Islami political and paramilitary group leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to facilitate a transfer of power to the Taliban.

“During the first 10 days [after the Taliban took over] Abdullah and I did everything to ensure calm and stability,” he said. “Our informal discussions with the Taliban leaders were positive and focused on national issues.”

When the Taliban entered Kabul on August 15, Karzai appeared in an online video with his three young daughters to try to reassure Kabul residents at an uneasy time.

“Me and my family are here with you and hope that the problems of our country and our capital are solved peacefully through talks,” he said.

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Afghan Women Residing In Tajikistan Protest Against Taliban, Pakistan

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By RFE/RL’s Tajik Service
September 14, 2021

DUSHANBE — Dozens of Afghan women residing in Tajikistan have rallied at Afghanistan’s embassy in Dushanbe to protest against the erosion of human rights under the newly installed Taliban-led government and what they said was Pakistan’s support of the militants.

The women chanted “Pakistan, go away from Afghanistan!,” “Stop killing Afghans,” and “We support resistance,” among other slogans, as they gathered in front of the embassy on September 14, before entering the building.

The protesters told RFE/RL that they are concerned over Afghanistan’s future and expressed hope that the resistance fighters led by Ahmad Masud in the country’s north will be supported by other nations to battle against the Taliban.

Afghan Ambassador to Tajikistan Mohammad Zohir Akbar met with the protesting women and said he supported them, adding that the Taliban will be unable to maintain government structures.

After toppling the Western-backed government in Kabul a month ago, the hard-line Islamist group has told the world it has changed, including in its attitude toward women and girls. The group also promised inclusiveness and a general amnesty for former opponents.

But many Afghans remain deeply fearful, especially after the militants formed an all-male government led by hard-line Taliban veterans, banned protests, and cracked down on demonstrators and journalists.

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Turkey Resists Pressure to Take Afghan Refugees, Calls for Global Response

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Dorian Jones
VOA News
September 14, 2021

ISTANBUL – Turkey is calling for collective international action to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The call comes as Turkey, already hosting the largest number of refugees globally, warns it cannot take any more.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, addressing a high-level United Nations meeting on Afghanistan Monday, warned that with millions of Afghans displaced and facing a humanitarian crisis, now is the time for collective action.

A humanitarian and security crisis in Afghanistan would have direct implications across the globe. So, we should take the collective action now.

Turkish leaders fear an Afghan exodus through its territory as refugees flee Afghanistan and head for Europe.

Last week, the UN High Commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi, paid a four-day visit to Turkey and praised the country for receiving nearly four million refugees who fled the Syrian civil war.

Under a deal with the European Union, Turkey gets billions of dollars in aid to host the Syrians.

Some EU leaders are already suggesting the agreement be extended to include Afghans, claiming refugees should be hosted in locations closest to their places of origin.

But Turkey’s main opposition CHP party is strongly critical of the government’s refugee policy.

“It is a record of serious mismanagement. It was simply a transactional relationship between Turkey and the European Union,” said Unal Cevikoz is a CHP parliamentary deputy. “And they simply wanted to stop the flow of refugees by giving some financial assistance to Turkey. A majority of the Turkish population thinks that burden-sharing is not fairly distributed in the international community, and we are also scared the same mismanagement will continue in the case of Afghanistan.”

Senior EU officials visited Ankara last week to talk about the refugee deal with Turkey. Ankara insists it cannot take any more refugees and calls for the EU to share the burden.

Some analysts say Ankara needs the money from Europe, but international relations expert Sol Ozel says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will need more than monetary incentives to convince his people.

“He will have to show to the country something more than just money, and that is visa liberalization, which I don’t [think] the Europeans are capable of delivering on,” said Ozel.

Visa-free travel for Turks in the European Union was part of the original Syrian refugee deal, but until now has been blocked by some EU members.

With Erdogan’s ratings languishing at record lows in opinion polls and the same polls indicating strong public opposition to receiving Afghan refugees, analysts predict any new EU refugee deal with Turkey will be difficult and fraught with political risk for the Turkish leader.

Fate of Afghanistan’s National Assembly Unclear

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Tolo News: Afghanistan’s National Assembly, composed of two houses – the lower house of representatives called the Wolesi Jirga and the upper house of senators called the Meshrano Jirga – has not resumed activities following the collapse of the former government on August 15. The fate of the assembly remains unknown, said Fazl Hadi Muslimyar, the speaker of the senate. Click here to read more (external link).

Tajikistan: The Taliban’s Toughest Critic

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Tajik President Emomali Rahmon

Bruce Pannier
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
September 13, 2021

The surprising speed with which the Taliban took control over most of Afghanistan after foreign forces began withdrawing from the country left Afghanistan’s neighbors in a difficult predicament.

All of them had considered the possibility the militant group could seize power, but suddenly they needed to publicly state what their policy toward Taliban-ruled Afghanistan was.

Generally, the response was that the Taliban in charge was the reality and the neighboring countries were willing to at least talk with these new leaders of Afghanistan.

Except Tajikistan.

Pakistan — long a backer of the Taliban — clearly welcomed the group’s success in Afghanistan.

China, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan all conceded there was nothing they could do about Afghan internal politics and held out hope that some form of cooperation with the Taliban might be possible.

But Tajik authorities have taken a different position and that has raised questions about why Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his government continue to make clear their strong opposition to a Taliban government in Afghanistan.

First, it is worth remembering that Rahmon was Tajikistan’s leader more than 20 years ago when the Taliban had control of most of Afghanistan.

None of the other current leaders in the countries bordering Afghanistan were in power when the Taliban was ousted by a U.S.-led military invasion in 2001.

Rahmon supported a group led by ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan who were fighting the Taliban in the late 1990s and he has given moral support to the ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan now — including the holdout group in the Panjshir Valley that continues to oppose Taliban rule.

There is a large population of ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan — where they make up about 25 percent of the population — and the Tajiks in Tajikistan feel a strong connection to them.

That is not true of any of the other states neighboring Afghanistan.

In fact, Rahmon’s public concern for the Tajiks in Afghanistan has earned the generally unpopular leader of Tajikistan some rare public support in his country, an important detail as he positions his eldest son, Rustam, to take over as president.

Tajikistan’s Civil War

There is another reason it would be difficult for Rahmon’s government to publicly engage with the Taliban.

During Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) was the major group in an alliance of forces fighting against the Tajik government. The war ended with a peace agreement that provided for 30 percent of the positions in government to be filled by representatives of the wartime opposition. The IRPT was legalized and was the second largest party in Tajikistan after Rahmon’s People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan.

The IRPT was also potentially the biggest threat to Rahmon’s increasing grip on power and in September 2015 — after years of pressuring the IRPT and its leadership and whittling down its places in state bodies — the government used a bizarre and vague incident involving a high-ranking officer in the Defense Ministry to make dubious claims that the IRPT had tried to stage a coup. The IRPT was quickly declared an extremist group and its activities banned in Tajikistan.

The IRPT is an Islamic-based political party, but it is far more moderate than the Taliban.

It is difficult to see how the Tajik government could establish ties with the Taliban, let alone consider recognizing a Taliban government, while continuing to hunt and repress members of the IRPT.

And Tajikistan’s chief Islamic cleric, Saidmukarram Abdulkodirzoda, made it clear in a September 11 interview with state news agency Khovar that improving ties with the Taliban is out of the question.

“Islam is compassion and brotherhood,” Abdulkodirzoda said. “But today the terrorist movement known as the Taliban call themselves an Islamic state and execute women, children, and brothers.”

Abdulkodirzoda had more to say and, since all of Tajikistan’s top clerics are carefully vetted by the government, his views can be taken as the government’s views.

The big question is how Rahmon and his government can feel so confident in confronting the Taliban.

The answer to this is more difficult to discern.

Tajikistan is, in terms of territory, the smallest of Afghanistan’s neighbors and economically it is the poorest.

Though small, Tajikistan’s military has been receiving help from powerful countries for many years.

Russia is the biggest supplier of arms to Tajikistan, but China has been increasing its aid to the country’s armed forces for more than a decade. And the United States, NATO, the European Union, and the OSCE — while not supplying weapons — have been helping with money and equipment for border posts, surveillance equipment, winter and summer clothing, off-road vehicles, and other such items.

None of that is likely to cow the Taliban or, more importantly for Tajikistan, some of the extremist groups that have been fighting alongside the Taliban for years, many with roots in Tajikistan.

And Rahmon seems quite aware of this.

Not many countries welcomed the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan. Official press statements often express a fatalism about the turn of events, but there is not much enthusiasm for what has happened since the U.S.-led military withdrawal began on May 1.

Tajikistan’s government is no doubt saying what many governments are thinking.

The Carnegie Endowment’s Paul Stronski mentioned this during a recent Majlis podcast and suggested Tajikistan is a messenger for the views of other countries.

Tajik political expert Khairullo Mirsaidov agreed, telling RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, known locally as Ozodi, “Rahmon could not have made such a statement without Russian consent. Now that the United States has left the region, Russia does not want to give full control of Afghanistan to Pakistan.”

He added: “It also gives momentum for Rahmon to take an opportunity for internal use of the topic, bringing him closer to his own people.”

Russia has a military base in Tajikistan and China has a small military post in the eastern part of the country.

Both Moscow and Beijing have expressed confidence that it is possible to deal with the Taliban, but both are concerned by the presence of militants from their own countries who are in groups currently inside Afghanistan that are allied to the Taliban.

And there are many countries with citizens still inside Afghanistan and the governments of those countries need to keep this in consideration when commenting on events in the country.

After Rahmon said during an August 25 meeting with visiting Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi that Tajikistan would not recognize any Afghan government that was seen as exclusive, he specifically mentioned that he expected ethnic Tajiks to be included.

The next day, French President Emmanuel Macron invited Rahmon to visit Paris.

Which proved that there are obviously some dividends to be gained by openly opposing Taliban rule in Afghanistan — and Rahmon seems to appreciate that.

RFE/RL Tajik Service Director Salimjon Aioubov contributed to this report

Copyright (c) 2021. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.