Pakistan’s Baluch Separatists Losing Their Afghan Sanctuary

Abubakar Siddique
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
February 4, 2022
For years Afghanistan was seen as place of refuge for Baluch separatists seeking to evade Islamabad’s crackdown on their homeland in Pakistan. But following the return of the Islamist Taliban to power in Kabul, members of the secular groups fear they have lost their sanctuary.
Some appear to have crossed the border and resumed their fight in Muslim-majority Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan, where attacks on security forces have risen dramatically in recent weeks. Others are believed to have moved to Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province. But for those who remain in Afghanistan, fears of persecution are on the rise.
On January 22, unknown assailants in Kabul killed Abdul Razzaq Baloch, a refugee who fled with thousands of other ethnic Baluch activists after a dispute in 2004 over natural resources erupted into open fighting between Islamabad and Baluch separatists.
The killing is seen as part of a string of attacks and arrests of Baluch activists and militants who supported the two-decade insurgency in the region bordering Afghanistan and Iran.
“The [Baluch] refugees I have talked to are in hiding and desperately to look for an escape,” Kiyya Baloch, an exiled journalist who tracks violence in Balochistan, told RFE/RL. “Definitely, concerns about the safety of the Baluch are increasing.”
While Afghanistan suffers from an image as a war-torn country whose people are sometimes forced to flee to neighboring countries to escape conflict. But for some — such as rebels from Pakistan, Iran, and China — Afghanistan proved to be a safe haven.
Baluch activists became the largest group taking shelter in Afghanistan after the killing in Pakistan of Nawab Akbar Bugti, an elderly Baluch politician, in August 2006. They followed in the footsteps of an earlier generation who escaped into southern Afghanistan after fighting a bloody insurgency against Islamabad in the 1970s.
Many members of the Taliban took the opposite path, basing themselves in Balochistan following the arrival of U.S. forces in Afghanistan in 2001. With the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in August, many of the Baluch activists and militants remaining in Afghanistan have gone into hiding.
“After the Taliban seized power, Pakistan has been freely chasing Baluch refugees with the help of the Taliban,” Sidra Baloch, an exiled activist and friend of Abdul Razzaq Baloch, alleged in comments to RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.
No one has claimed responsibility for Baloch’s killing and the Taliban and the authorities in Islamabad have been reluctant to comment, but the hard-line Islamist group’s historically close ties to the Pakistani military have raised suspicions of possible collusion.
To be sure, Baluch exiles also came under fire in the two decades before the Taliban’s return.
Supporters of Aslam Baloch, a top military commander of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) who was assassinated in a suicide attack in Afghanistan in December 2018, have accused Islamabad of involvement. He was targeted soon after the BLA claimed responsibility for an attack on the Chinese consulate in the southern seaport city of Karachi in November 2017.
In another case, Brahumdagh Bugti, the grandson of the late nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti, was targeted by suicide attacks in Afghanistan before his escape to Switzerland in 2011.
Following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Islamabad frequently accused Kabul of conspiring with archrival India to support Baluch separatists. And Pakistani authorities today appear to approve of any steps taken by the Taliban to contain a group it considers to be terrorist, according to Pakistani media.
In October, the Taliban reportedly arrested eight Baluch refugees in Nimroz. Exiled Baluch separatist activists said they were accused of being connected with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K).
Radio Azadi contacted several Taliban spokesmen to seek comment about the arrests and reports of increased pressure against Baluch nationalists, but received no response.
In a television interview, Mufti Abdul Hakim, a Taliban official, alluded to the issue.
“The Pakistani security establishment targets opponents, particularly nationalists in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces,” he told the private Tolo News television station, pointing to the two Pakistani provinces bordering Afghanistan. “But they blame Afghans for them to signal to the international community that the Afghans are terrorists.”
There are indications that some members of the Baluch exodus from Afghanistan might have bolstered the Baluch insurgency in Pakistan.
“Most of the Baloch ‘terrorists’ fled Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover,” the Express Tribune, a Pakistani daily, recently quoted an unidentified Pakistani official as saying.
In the past few weeks, Pakistani security forces have suffered mounting losses due to increased attacks by Baluch fighters. Scores of militants and soldiers were killed in two separate attacks on military bases on February 3.
“We have been fighting against them for 20 years and they have received support from Afghanistan,” Balochistan Home Minister Mir Zia Langove alleged in comments to journalists on February 3, adding that Baluch communities had also been supported by Tehran.
Afghan journalist Sami Yousafzai told RFE/RL that as Taliban influence rose in Afghanistan in recent years, Baluch militants and their supporters lost whatever support they had. With the Taliban in power, he said, remaining fighters and refugees must rely on ties with Baluch communities in Pakistan and Iran.
Prior to the Taliban’s return, the Baluch separatists were considered the largest exiled community in Afghanistan. The country’s indigenous Baluch population is about 200,000 strong. They are concentrated in the southern Afghan province of Nimroz and nearby parts of Helmand, Kandahar, and Farah provinces. They make up a small part of Afghanistan’s cultural mosaic and population of 39 million, and have a complicated history in the country.
Members of Marri, a prominent Baluch tribe, fled into southern Afghanistan during a five-year insurgency by the Baloch People Liberation Front, a Marxist guerrilla organization, against Pakistan in the 1970s. However, most of them returned to Pakistan after the Islamabad-allied Afghan mujahedin attacked them following the collapse of Afghanistan’s pro-Soviet socialist government in 1992.
“The situation appears to be less bloody for the Baluch this time around, but it looks increasingly difficult for Baluch dissidents to continue living in Afghanistan,” Kiyya Baloch said.
Copyright (c) 2022. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.
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Pressure Mounts on Biden to Launch ‘Over-The-Horizon’ Airstrikes in Afghanistan
Michael Hughes
AOPNEWS
February 2, 2022
Powerful U.S. lawmakers and other influencers in Washington are attempting to pressure the Biden administration into launching “over-the-horizon” airstrikes inside post-NATO Afghanistan amid concerns international terrorist groups are growing stronger by the day.
Yet as feared as the terrorist threat is, launching such operations – especially at this point in time – could be self-defeating from a political standpoint, not to mention outright ineffective for a number of reasons.
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Anton Blinken are expected to face some of this pressure at a secret hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday.
Senator Jim Inhofe, the top ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services panel, expressed disappointment that the briefing was classified and vowed to press the two senior officials on why the U.S. has not exacted revenge on the terrorists that killed American troops in August amid the botched exit from Afghanistan.
“Here’s what I’d like to hear from Secretary Blinken and Secretary Austin… I want to understand what threats we face from terrorist organizations in Afghanistan today,” Inhofe said in a statement released ahead of the meeting. “I want to know how the administration plans to counter these threats, seeing as we have conducted zero over-the-horizon counterterrorism strikes since August – not even to punish the terrorists who killed 13 American service members at Abbey Gate, as the president promised to do.”
The senator also said he wanted an accounting of how many Americans are still left behind in Afghanistan, “since these figures keep changing.”
“Six months after the chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan, the consequences of President Biden’s poor decisions are even more clear,” Inhofe warned. “American troops might not be on the ground in Afghanistan any more, but many questions still remain.”
The briefing comes amid concerns over what the Taliban government is doing about IS-Khorasan and al-Qaeda, both of which U.S. officials have described as “resurgent.”
The Taliban had provided assurances that Afghanistan would not become a terrorist safe haven as one of the conditions of the withdrawal agreement it struck with the United States. There is much skepticism, however, about whether the Taliban are living up to this commitment.
For example, in December, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Tajikistan Muhammad Zahir Agbar told Sputnik the Taliban grants al-Qaeda and IS-K fighters Afghan passports and that terrorism is being “legalized” inside the country.
Moreover, based on the Pentagon’s previous estimates, IS-K could be in a position to launch an attack on the U.S. homeland within the next three months.
However, despite these worries, the timing of any type of major air campaign is questionable at best and possibly politically infeasible. The U.S. defense establishment, after all, is still reeling from the fallout of the August 29 errant airstrike that left ten Afghan civilians dead.
From this perspective, Inhofe’s comments seem perhaps a little “tone deaf.” The backlash, in addition, has been exacerbated by a recent damaging assessment of military practices.
Last week, Austin ordered an overhaul of military operations in a bid to reduce civilian deaths in the future after a Rand study exposed glaring defects in current processes, structures and organization the think tank said led to unnecessary non-combatant deaths.
The report also accused the military of “systemic under-counting of civilian casualties,” a phenomenon that has struck a blow to the United States’ legitimacy and reputation globally.
In addition to these constraints, the efficacy of these operations are in question given launching any strikes targeting terrorists in Afghanistan will certainly be complicated by the Taliban’s likely resistance – even unwillingness – to allow them.
Meanwhile, U.S. military leaders have scoffed at the notion that the Taliban could be seen as a “partner” in counterterrorism efforts, despite the mutual threat known as IS-K.
Moreover, regional actors have refused to host American bases, a reality that has forced the U.S. to operate out of Qatar – making it a very far horizon indeed. And some analysts have warned that the “over-the-horizon” strategy has never proven to be effective in countering terrorism in the first place.
“While targeted air support might help achieve tactical victories, over-the-horizon as a counterterrorism strategy is unlikely to yield any strategic victory in combating terrorism in the long term,” analysts Tore Hamming and Colin Clarke wrote in Foreign Policy in early January. “As a strategy, over-the-horizon is not designed to win the global war against terrorism but to mitigate the terrorist threat in a short-term perspective. And even that will be troublesome in the context of Afghanistan and in the Sahel, just as it has been in Somalia.”
Although IS-K is certainly viewed as an adversary by the Taliban, the new Afghan government’s relations with al-Qaeda continue to trouble many – and it is highly unlikely these ties will be undone dramatically anytime soon. This is especially true when one of the government’s top officials is Sirajuddin Haqqani – leader of the Haqqani Network, whose ties to al-Qaeda are stronger than any other of the radical movement’s factions.
