Abbas Karimi
Tolo News: Paralympian Afghan- American swimmer Abbas Karimi won the gold medal for the 50m butterfly and a silver medal in the 50m backstroke at an international competition held in the US, the Citi Para Swimming World Series USA 2023. Click here to read more (external link).
Lithium
Michael Hughes
AOPNEWS
April 22, 2023
China will face stiff technical, geological, logistical, and market challenges in trying to extract lithium profitably from Afghanistan, in addition to the obvious security problems, primarily in the form of ISK terror attacks. However, Beijing is certainly not approaching the situation naïvely. In fact, China may be fully willing to absorb significant losses to meet broader geopolitical goals.
Afghanistan sits atop massive untapped mineral deposits, which the USGS and Pentagon, after refreshing detailed Soviet studies, estimated in 2007 at $1 trillion. This includes a site in Ghazni province with a deposit the size of the Salar de Uyuni find in Bolivia, which holds 5.4 million tons of lithium.
With the entire globe racing to reach net zero emissions by 2050, demand for electric batteries has sent lithium prices soaring to all-time highs in recent years. Not to mention, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast significant shortfalls in lithium by 2040. Current production would have to jump four times to meet demand. In April of 2022, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the price of lithium had gone to “insane levels” over the past decade – jumping by a factor of 17 – from $4,450/ton in 2012 to $78,000/ton in 2022.
Hence, it sounded like good news for Afghanistan that China wants to take the first crack at the massive lithium deposits. The Afghan mine ministry last week said Chinese company Gochin expressed interest in investing $10 billion on a lithium venture, claiming it could lead to 120,000 direct and one million indirect jobs. However, there are many good reasons why Afghans should remain skeptical despite what appears to be a huge opportunity.
Some experts have not only mocked the U.S. $1 trillion estimate as absurd but doubt the minerals have any value. In 2017, Adam Smith Institute Fellow and economist Tim Worstall, in a piece for Forbes, gave his own back-of-the-envelope calculation and projected that the reserves were worth roughly zero. In fact, the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum told this journalist in the same year that “there is little to no information on the proven economic viability of these resources.”
Two years ago, Rick Valenta, a professor at the University of Queensland’s Sustainable Minerals Institute, said closer inspection cast doubt on the 2007 survey of lithium deposits in Afghanistan. He said drilling in 2010 commissioned by USGS found a range of lithium levels “about three orders of magnitude less” than the lithium concentrations in South America. In other words, Afghanistan may not be the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” as an internal Pentagon memo described it. Apparently, the US comparison of Afghanistan’s deposits to those in Bolivia were based on deeply flawed assumptions.
“So it wasn’t just a near miss, it was way off,” Valenta told Mining Technology.
And the tricky thing about commodity prices is their cyclicality. When a commodity gets too costly, the market adapts and looks for alternatives. And this is already occurring with lithium. As of Friday, the China spot price of lithium carbonate sat at $23,282/ton, down 70% from a year ago amid a slowing in electric vehicle demand. This means Afghanistan’s lithium reserves were worth $421 billion 12 months ago, and are now worth roughly $108 billion (assuming extraction costs of zero).
Meanwhile, more reserves of lithium are being found every year. In March, Iran found a deposit containing 8.9 million tons of lithium and India reported discovering a deposit with 5.9 million tons. It turns out the shortage is not in lithium per se – the shortage is in mining capacity and the ability to get the stuff out of the ground without going bankrupt.
And then there are the technical complexities. It typically takes around 15 years to go from exploration to market, according to an IEA study. Moreover, Afghanistan poses unique problems, including the fact it will be logistically challenging to bring product to market from a landlocked country with limited transport and power infrastructure.
And let’s not forget that China in 2007 won the right to extract copper at Mes Aynak, a large mine in Logar province. China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) inked a $2.8 billion deal for a 30-year lease. MCC reportedly spent $371 million toward developing the area, but work halted amid security issues and corruption allegations.
Then again, it is worth noting that China does not view such projects through purely capitalistic eyes. This is a resource nationalism play. They are willing to absorb some costs in order to corner the market. UBS forecast that China’s ramp up of lithium extraction could see it accounting for nearly a third of the world’s supply by mid-decade. And they have better lithium prospects in Africa and South America than Afghanistan to boot.
In the end, Beijing also sees it in the context of the broader superpower competition, regardless of the outcome. Even if the Chinese fall short of plan, they have prevented rivals like the United States from gaining access to Afghanistan’s lithium. In that sense, this particular battle is already won.
Afghans are defying a ban on using Iranian rials or Pakistani rupees, as their economy struggles following the Taliban takeover.
Ariana: The Afghan Judo Federation organised a refereeing seminar at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul as part of developing judo in the nation, insidethegames. Juan Carlos Barcos and Paul Camacho Perez, experts from the International Judo Federation, were present to help with the seminar, which was the first of its kind in Afghanistan. Click here to read more (external link).
Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada
Ayaz Gul
VOA News
April 21, 2023
ISLAMABAD — The reclusive Taliban chief said Friday that he would not allow foreign interference in his Islamic governance in Afghanistan, come what may.
Hibatullah Akhundzada spoke to worshippers in a mosque in the southern city of Kandahar at the start of the three-day Eid al-Fitr festival to mark the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
Akhundzada hailed the establishment of what he described as an Islamic “Sharia-based” government in Afghanistan after the Taliban reclaimed power in August 2021.
“It is the success and good fortune of the Afghan nation that Allah has blessed them with an Islamic Sharia system,” he said. “I have promised Allah that so long as I am alive, not a single law of infidelity will find a place in Afghanistan.”
Akhundzada, officially referred to as the leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and commander of the faithful, said that he would forbid “any action that threatens or negates Islam and is against Islamic principles.”
Media was, as usual, not allowed to cover the speech of the unseen Taliban leader, an Islamic scholar who rarely leaves Kandahar, the Taliban heartland. His spokesman officially released audio of the sermon late Friday.
Taliban not recognized as legitimate
The Taliban waged a deadly insurgency for almost two decades. They seized control of the country 20 months ago from the then-internationally backed Afghan government as the United States and NATO troops withdrew after two decades of involvement in the war.
Akhundzada has since issued a series of edicts, banning girls’ education beyond the sixth grade and barring most Afghan women from public life and work across Afghanistan. The ban has recently been extended to nongovernmental organizations and the United Nations despite severe global criticism and demands to end restrictions on women.
The international community has refused to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate rulers, citing bans on women’s access to education and work, among other human rights concerns.
Friday’s defiant speech by the Taliban leader came as U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres plans to host a meeting of envoys on Afghanistan from countries around the world in Qatar early next month to discuss the way forward in the wake of intensifying restrictions on Afghan women.
The United States has rejected any discussions about recognizing the Taliban at the U.N.-hosted meeting scheduled for May 1-2.
“The intent of — purpose of this meeting was never to discuss recognition of the Taliban, and any discussion at this meeting about recognition would be unacceptable to us,” Vedant Patel, the principal deputy spokesperson of the U.S. State Department, told reporters on Thursday.
The rebuttal came after U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed shared details of the planned meeting in the Gulf state, suggesting the recognition issue would also be on the agenda.
“We hope that we will find those baby steps to put us back on the pathway to recognition … of the Taliban — in other words, there are conditions,” Mohammed told a seminar at Princeton University on Monday.
That discussion must happen because Taliban authorities demand diplomatic recognition, and “that’s the leverage we have,” she stressed.
Taliban demands UN ‘fulfill its responsibility’
U.N. spokesman Farhan Haq, speaking to reporters in New York on Thursday, attempted to downplay Mohammed’s remarks, saying the deliberations at the meeting in Qatar’s capital, Doha, would not focus on recognition of the Taliban.
“The point of the discussion, which will be held in a closed, private setting, is to build a more unified consensus on the challenges at hand,” Haq said.
“There’s a need to reinvigorate international engagement around the sort of common objectives that the international community has on Afghanistan. We consider it a priority to advance an approach based on pragmatism and principles to have a constructive engagement on the issue,” he said.
Taliban chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has demanded that the U.N. “fulfill its responsibility” toward the people of Afghanistan.
“Islamic Emirate wants the recognition process to be completed soon. It will build mutual trust with world countries and help resolve all issues that can benefit regional security and stability,” Mujahid told VOA. He used the official title of the Taliban government.
Khaama: Friday marked the beginning of Eid-ul-Fitr in Afghanistan, which was celebrated across the country. Afghanistan people celebrated the Eid-ul-Fitr on Friday across the country after the supreme court confirmed the 21st of April as the first day of Eid in the country. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Taliban militant (file photo)
CNN: “They tried to choke and suffocate me by tying a plastic bag across my face, telling me to confess to working with the NRF,” he said. “But as I was never part of it, I didn’t confess … Then they hung me upside down, one time by my feet, another by my hands.” He added: “I screamed so loud, I blacked out because of the trauma.” Click here to read more about (external link).
8am: According to local sources in Balkh province, a young man in the Dawlat Abad district of the province ended his life with a gunshot to his head. The incident took place on Thursday, April 20, in Dahr-Abad village of Dowlat Abad district. The incidence of suicide, mostly attributed to mental health issues, has increased following the Taliban’s takeover of the country. People say that poverty and economic problems are the main reasons behind these incidents. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Tolo News: Residents of Panjshir have expressed concerns over the settlement of [Taliban] military personnel in residential areas including private houses, educational centers and mosques. The residents of Panjshir also said that many school compounds in Panjshir are being used as military bases and that the students have been deprived of their schools for nearly two years. Click here to read more (external link).