Michael Hughes
AOPNEWS
July 29, 2023

Al-Qaeda is covertly extending external operations capability inside Afghanistan while IS-K and a host of other terror groups continue to gain strength and are preparing to launch campaigns targeting states across Central Asia and Europe, according to a new UN Security Council report released earlier this week.

The report by the UNSC Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, concerning Daesh, al-Qaeda, and associated entities, paints a startling picture of the burgeoning terrorist presence in Afghanistan, a footprint that looks more complex and dangerous than at any time before 9/11. And, although at odds with one of the outfits, the Taliban clearly appear complicit, both directly and indirectly, for the current state of affairs.

UN members assess that the 20 or more terrorist groups operating inside Afghanistan all similarly aim to build “theocratic quasi-state entities” across the region. Both IS-K and al-Qaeda are swiftly trying to develop a sophisticated terrorist infrastructure on the ground, replete with training camps and all, the report, dated July 25 but not publicly released until July 27, said. What is even more surprising is the pace with which these disparate terrorist entities are finding common ground.

“The distinctions between members of Al-Qaida and affiliated groups, including TTP, and ISIL-K are at times blurred at the edges, with individuals sometimes identifying with more than one group and a tendency for people to gravitate towards the dominant or ascending power,” the report said. 

The report claims that al-Qaeda has agreed to operate “covertly” to help promote the narrative that the Taliban are abiding the Doha deal requirement not to allow terrorist activities on Afghan soil. In exchange, al-Qaeda has been allowed access and influence at the senior most levels in the Afghan security complex. 

“Under the patronage of high-ranking officials of the de-facto Taliban authorities, Al-Qaida members infiltrate law enforcement agencies and public administration bodies, ensuring the security of Al-Qaida cells dispersed throughout the country,” the report added.

Echoing this theme is a Chatham House analysis published on July 28, which claimed that al-Qaeda is so “bound up” in the Afghan government that its training manuals are used in the Ministry of Defense.

According to the UNSC report, AQ is still in a “reorganization” phase, and is establishing new training centers in Kunar and Nuristan provinces, drawing eerie parallels to the configuration within Afghanistan at the height of Mullah Omar’s reign shortly before the U.S. invasion. But, this time around, al-Qaeda is opening its umbrella, and working more closely with other terrorist entities of non-Afghan origin, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), ETIM/TIP and Jamaat Ansarullah. One among many of AQ’s goals is to establish “strongholds” throughout Central Asia.

Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban, according to the report, continue to afford TTP sanctuary, enabling them to launch cross-border attacks against Pakistan.

“Member States assess that… TTP is gaining momentum in its operations against Pakistan. Since the reunification with several splinter groups, TTP has aspired to re-establish control of territory in Pakistan after being emboldened by the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan,” the report said.

Pakistan apparently may be looking to employ drones to target TTP members on the other side of the border, something a Taliban official insinuated this week. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai complained that Afghan air space was being violated by “foreign drones” that are not only from America. The official then hinted that Afghanistan must develop air defense capabilities to protect territorial integrity. 

The UNSC assessment said TTP has intensified focus on high-value targets in border areas and soft targets in urban areas, although the group’s capability does not yet meet its ambitions. Not only does it not control territory, yet, inside Pakistan, TTP “lacks popular appeal in the tribal areas,” the report claimed.

Seen as an even bigger threat is IS-K, now estimated to be about 6,000-strong, including family members. Member states suggested that, in the medium term, IS-K might pursue “high-impact” operations against Western countries, as evidenced by a recently disrupted attack in France. The terror group is also still bent on undermining the Taliban, and has seen great success in doing so, which has made IS-K attractive to up-and-coming jihadists.

“Overall, ISIL-K attacks demonstrated strong operational capability involving reconnoitre, coordination, communication, planning and execution,” the report noted. “Furthermore, attacks against high-profile Taliban figures in Balkh, Badakhshan and Baghlan Provinces, raised ISIL-K morale and boosted recruitment.”

Meanwhile, the Taliban of course have adamantly rejected all the allegations in the UNSC report, claiming that the Afghan government is not providing sanctuary to terrorists and is in fact at war with terrorists like IS-K. 

If Afghanistan is not a terrorist sanctuary, the term has lost all meaning. And one can only hope intra-jihadi rivalry continues, as it’s one of the few obstacles to outward expansion.

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