A still taken from an undated video shows Hafiz Saeed (center), the founder of IS-K, at an undisclosed location at the Afghanistan-Pakistani border in January 2015.

By Abubakar Siddique
March 26, 2024

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Since its emergence a decade ago, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) militant group has largely focused its attacks on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But IS-K, the Afghanistan branch of Islamic State (IS), has carried out an increasing number of mass-casualty attacks outside its stronghold in South Asia in recent years, including in Iran and Russia.

Experts say the deadly attack on a concert venue outside Moscow on March 22, which was widely blamed on IS-K, shows the affiliate’s growing capabilities and ambitions, as well as its leading role in the umbrella organization.

“This branch has become the spearhead, the leading internationally minded branch of the Islamic State,” said Lucas Webber, co-founder and editor of MilitantWire.com.

Webber said IS’s central leadership in Syria and Iraq has had to “focus more on survival, regrouping, and reconstituting its capabilities and its networks” after the group was largely defeated and dismantled by a U.S.-led coalition in 2019.

“It’s essentially become the parent organization of the IS franchise,” said Webber, referring to IS-K, which first appeared in Afghanistan in late 2014, the same year that IS seized large swaths of Syria and Iraq and declared a self-styled caliphate.

IS also has branches in the Arabian Peninsula, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Caucasus.

External Operations

As well as continuing to carry out attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, IS-K appears to have shifted its focus to external operations in recent months.

In January, IS-K was blamed for killing more than 90 people in Iran’s southern city of Kerman, the deadliest attack in the Islamic republic in decades.

On March 22, gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall concert venue in the Moscow region, killing at least 139 people, in Russia’s worst terrorist violence in two decades.

IS claimed responsibility for the attack. U.S. officials specifically blamed IS-K, while Moscow attributed the attack to Islamic extremists without mentioning the IS affiliate.

IS-K on March 25 threatened to carry out more “massacres” against Russia. Moscow has targeted IS militants in Syria and Africa and forged ties with the Taliban government, a fierce rival of IS-K in Afghanistan.

Webber of MilitantWire.com said IS-K poses a rapidly growing threat to the West. “For the foreseeable future, this seems to be an indication of things to come,” he said.

General Michael E. Kurilla, head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, told lawmakers on March 21 that IS-K “retains the capability and the will to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.”

Law enforcement in Europe have uncovered several IS-K plots in recent years.

German police on March 19 said they had arrested two suspected IS-K supporters. They were accused of plotting to attack the Swedish parliament.

In July, police in Germany and the Netherlands arrested nine people who they said were in contact with IS-K.

During the past year, the group has threatened to carry out attacks in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Denmark after cases of Koran burnings in those countries.

‘Loose Network Of Cells’

After its emergence, IS-K initially captured small pockets of territory in eastern and northern Afghanistan as part of IS’s broader aim of expansion throughout South and Central Asia.

But IS-K was driven out from its territorial strongholds around 2019 after coming under increasing fire from Afghan and international forces as well as the Taliban. Since then, IS-K has embarked on a new strategy of urban warfare.

“We are witnessing a new phase of the Islamic State-Khorasan,” said Riccardo Valle, the co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, an online platform that tracks militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

He said IS-K has evolved from a group aiming to seize territory like a “traditional army” to a “loose network of cells, which tends to carry out more lethal attacks.”

IS-K is made up of Afghan and foreign fighters. In a report published in June 2023, the UN Security Council said the number of IS-K militants in Afghanistan ranged “from 4,000 to 6,000,” including family members. Some experts estimate that the number is much lower.

Sara Harmouch, a terrorism and defense policy expert in Washington, said IS-K’s focus on asymmetric warfare instead of territorial control has enabled the group to adapt to local conditions and withstand counterterrorism operations.

“This flexibility could make IS-K a more dynamic and resilient leader within the IS network, capable of navigating post-caliphate era complexities,” she said.

Harmouch said IS-K’s ability to carry out high-profile attacks outside Afghanistan and Pakistan has raised its profile and indicated its expanding capabilities.

“This visibility could position IS-K as a leading figure within the broader IS network, especially in attracting recruits and resources,” she said.

Copyright (c) 2024. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036

Related

• ISIS Suspect of Russia attack “… wasn’t a practicing Muslim: ‘He never prayed or fasted, and he drank alcohol.'”
• The ISIS Phenomenon: Why We Should Be More Concerned