With the pending withdrawal of U.S. forces and contractors from Afghanistan, the fledgling Afghan Air Force could have some turbulent days ahead. While 80 percent of all air missions in support of Afghan ground forces are conducted by the Afghan Air Force, most of the aircraft maintenance is done by international contractors. How to continue the upkeep without them is one of the many challenges that lie ahead.
Frud Bezhan
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
May 26, 2021
Pakistan and Uzbekistan have exchanged goods through war-torn Afghanistan for the first time, in a move hailed as a milestone for regional economic integration.
A Pakistani cargo truck on May 4 transported medicine from the port city of Karachi to the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, via Kabul. An Uzbek cargo truck then took a shipment of leather products from Tashkent to the Pakistani city of Faisalabad on May 13.
The shipments are part of five planned trial runs aimed at testing the viability of various routes in the region, where trade has been hampered by the decades-old conflict in Afghanistan and longstanding diplomatic tensions between Kabul and Islamabad.
The project has received technical and financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The agency said the initiative is intended to “boost regional trade integration and connectivity.”
The shipments were made under the Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) Convention, a customs agreement that facilitates the international transport of goods. The multilateral treaty eliminates the need to pay customs duties and taxes. Afghanistan rejoined the TIR after a 30-year suspension in 2013, while Pakistan joined in 2017.
William Byrd, a development economist at the United States Institute of Peace, a Washington-based think tank, says the pilot project is an “encouraging development” but “more a proof of concept than a milestone.”
“If this gets taken forward by expanding to other Central Asian countries and is scaled up over time in terms of the volume of transit trade, there will be important benefits for both Pakistan and Central Asia,” says Byrd. “If this transit trade develops on a larger scale, it will also increase the economic stakes of neighboring countries in Afghanistan’s peace and stability.”
Afghanistan’s neighbors have a long history of funding proxy groups in the decades-long conflict. Pakistan is the Taliban’s main foreign backer, while Iran and Russia have expanded ties with the militant group in recent years.
‘New Trade Era’
Abdul Razak Dawood, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s adviser on commerce and investment, says the pilot project has been “very successful.”
“Our objective is to have greater connectivity with our western and northern neighbors,” Dawood told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal. “So, we are very encouraged. We want to do more [trade].”
Dawood said Islamabad expects to sign preferential trade arrangements (PTAs) — which could include lower or even no tariffs — with Uzbekistan and Afghanistan in the coming months.
Pakistan has been dealing with a struggling economy and energy crisis for years and has long sought access to markets in resource-rich Central Asia.
Pakistani media reports said Islamabad wants to import more Uzbek goods, including coal, fertilizers, and textiles.
The Pakistani transport company Best Trans Pvt and Uzbek freight-forwarding company Asad Trans — the two firms involved in the project — plan to boost the number of trucks carrying cargo to Pakistan and Uzbekistan to 50 by the end of the year.
Insecurity A ‘Severe Hurdle’
Observers say the biggest hurdle for regional economic connectivity is the war in Afghanistan, where violence has intensified since the announcement last month that U.S. and other Western forces would be withdrawing.
There are widespread fears of an intensified civil war if the Taliban attempts a forcible takeover of the country following the foreign troops’ complete withdrawal, which is due by September 11.
It is unclear if the Taliban gave its backing to the Pakistan and Uzbekistan cargo route, which passes through territory controlled by the militant group. The Taliban commands or contests around half of Afghanistan.
“If insecurity worsens and violence further escalates in the wake of the U.S. troop withdrawal, that could become the most severe hurdle both for economic activity in Afghanistan more generally and for regional connectivity,” says Byrd.
Byrd says other hindrances to greater regional trade include widespread corruption at border crossings in the region as well as numerous checkpoints on Afghan highways where various powerholders extort fees from transporters.
Foad Ahmadi, the spokesman for the Industry and Commerce Ministry, told RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan that the cargo route between Pakistan and Uzbekistan will allow Afghanistan to become a “roundabout” for regional trade.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has repeatedly talked up his country’s potential as a “hub of regional connectivity.”
But experts say the pilot project offers fewer tangible benefits to landlocked Afghanistan.
“For Afghanistan it is crucial to develop its own economy, including in particular agro-processing, construction, and, over a longer period, mineral extraction and exports that are currently subject to widespread informal mining and smuggling out to Pakistan and Iran,” says Byrd. “On the export side, Afghan products need to be permitted to transit more seamlessly through neighboring countries, notably Pakistan.”
Pakistan has banned Afghanistan from transporting goods through its territory to India, Islamabad’s archrival.
In response, New Delhi and Kabul launched an air freight corridor in 2016 to provide greater access for Afghan goods to the Indian market.
New Delhi, Kabul, and Tehran have also established a trade route through Iran’s strategic Chabahar Port.
The trade route has lessened Afghanistan’s reliance on Pakistan and has allowed India to open a sea route to Afghanistan. New Delhi also gained access to natural resources in the Central Asian republics.
As a result, Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan has plummeted in recent years as Iran has become Afghanistan’s biggest trading partner.
‘Political Points’
Landlocked Uzbekistan would one of the biggest beneficiaries of greater regional trade.
Uzbekistan’s access to marine shipping is very limited, and Tashkent has sought to secure a direct link to seaports in Pakistan and Iran.
In February, Afghan, Pakistani, and Uzbek officials signed a road map on the construction of a railroad from Afghanistan’s northern city of Mazar-e Sharif, near the Uzbek border, to Kabul and the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar.
Tashkent has signed a flurry of agreements with its southern neighbors to enhance regional trade. But Uzbek companies says many hurdles remain.
The head of an Uzbek transport and logistics company, speaking on condition of anonymity, told RFE/RL’s Uzbek Service that the Pakistan-Uzbekistan route was an opportunity for Tashkent and Islamabad to “score political points.”
“In fact, Uzbekistan does not have any intergovernmental agreements on the acceptance, registration, and dispatch of goods with either Pakistan or Afghanistan,” he said. “When we address the Transport Ministry about these issues, officials always tell us the same thing: ‘We are working on it.’”
Ariana: The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) warned Wednesday that the third wave of the COVID-19 infection may reach its peak in the next ten days. The warning comes as 623 new positive cases of COVID-19 have been registered in the last 24 hours. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Tolo News: Afghanistan won a friendly match against Indonesia on Tuesday that was held in the UAE ahead of qualifier matches for the 2022 World Cup and the 2023 AFC Asian Cup. Afghanistan will face Singapore in another friendly match in the UEA which will kick off on Saturday. Click here to read more (external link).
By Jeff Seldin, Nike Ching, Ayaz Gul
VOA News / May 25, 2021
PENTAGON/STATE DEPARTMENT/ISLAMABAD – More than three weeks into the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington’s plans to help ensure the country does not descend into chaos remain murky despite a ramped-up effort to get Afghanistan’s neighbors — Pakistan in particular — to do more.
The focus has been on rallying support, both for the ongoing diplomatic push to keep talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban on track, and for military cooperation should instability make new U.S. counterterrorism operations necessary.
But the U.S. efforts to solidify plans for what comes next appear to have taken on renewed urgency in recent days, leaning on outreach from the White House and the Pentagon to overcome a decade of strained ties and start to win over Pakistani officials.
Already, U.S. officials have voiced some optimism that an initial meeting between U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Pakistani counterpart, Moeed Yusuf, on Sunday in Geneva, went well.
“Both sides discussed a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues of mutual interest,” according to a statement issued by the White House on Monday, which made no reference to Afghanistan.
“Both sides agreed to continue the conversation,” it said.
The Pentagon, likewise, expressed confidence following a call early Monday between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
“The secretary’s discussion this morning was very useful,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters. “The secretary reiterated his appreciation for Pakistan’s support for the Afghanistan peace negotiations and expressed his desire to continue to build on the United States-Pakistan bilateral relationship.”
History of mistrust
Yet beyond the initial discussions, progress on both the military and diplomatic fronts appears to be elusive, complicated by years of mistrust, some of it dating back to May 2011, when Washington did not alert Pakistan to the U.S. special operations forces raid in Abbottabad that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
At the time, Islamabad warned the U.S. against any unilateral military action on Pakistani territory.
And Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Monday rejected the idea of allowing the U.S. to use Pakistan as a base for troops or as a staging point for potential airstrikes, dismissing speculation about the possibility of such an arrangement as “baseless and irresponsible.”
In an interview with VOA, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi cast further doubt on how much help will be coming from Islamabad when it comes to ensuring Afghanistan is as stable as possible after U.S. and coalition troops leave.
“We have no business interfering in their internal matters, but we are there to help if they require our help, and we will try and be as positive as we can,” Qureshi told VOA’s Urdu service.
“Afghanistan is a sovereign country. It’s an independent country,” he said. “Whatever we can (do) we will, but they will have to ultimately shoulder the responsibility.”
U.S. officials, though, continue to hope Pakistan will, in the end, be willing to do more, even if just out of self-interest.
“It has always been the case that Pakistan has much to gain from peace in Afghanistan,” a State Department spokesperson told VOA on the condition of anonymity, given the sensitive nature of the ongoing discussions.
Other officials have expressed cautious optimism that self-interest, combined with encouragement, will sway officials in Islamabad to be more proactive.
“I hope those with influence over the Taliban, such as Pakistan, do the right thing,” Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, told U.S. lawmakers last week. “We are pressing them to do that.”
Possible incentives
There are questions about how much leverage the U.S. can ultimately exert on Islamabad.
One option could be freeing up some $300 million in security aid to Pakistan that was frozen in 2018 under former U.S. President Donald Trump after his administration chastised Pakistan for a “dual policy of fighting some terrorists while supporting others” — a reference to Pakistan’s ties to the Taliban and the Haqqani network.
U.S. officials will not say whether such a move is even under consideration.
“We do not comment or speculate on policies that may or may not be under deliberation,” a State Department spokesperson told VOA — and even if it was, the money may not be enough to change Pakistan’s thought process.
“It’s complicated,” a senior Pakistani official dealing with national security matters said to VOA about the aid. “We are not asking. If we get it, of course we won’t say no.”
In the meantime, U.S. options may be narrowing for its military posture once the withdrawal from Afghanistan is complete.
Russia’s presidential envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said Monday that Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will not allow the U.S. to establish military bases on their territories.
“They made it clear that this was impossible,” he told the Russian news agency Sputnik, adding, “Our contacts with our Tajik and Uzbek partners indicate that there was no official request to them.”
For their part, however, U.S. officials insist there is still time to work out agreements for the basing of troops and assets for when the pullout from Afghanistan is finally completed this coming September.
“These are obviously diplomatic discussions that are ongoing and are clearly not complete,’ the Pentagon’s Kirby told reporters. “We’re exploring a range of options and opportunities to be able to provide a credible and viable over-the-horizon counterterrorism capability, and there’s lots of ways you can do that. Overseas basing is just one of them.”
Margaret Besheer at the United Nations, VOA Urdu Service contributed to this report.
By Radio Free Afghanistan
May 25, 2021
Afghan officials say local commandos have released 41 people from a Taliban prison in the country’s western province of Herat.
Jilani Farhad, spokesman for the provincial governor, told RFE/RL on May 25 that 19 members of the Afghan security forces were among those freed during the overnight operation in the Pashtun Zarghon district.
Seven prison guards were killed during the operation, Farhad said, adding there were no casualties among government forces.
The Special Operations Corps of the Afghan National Army said in a statement that weapons were seized and six motorcycles belonging to the Taliban were destroyed.
The Taliban did not immediately comment on the operation.
Late on May 23, Afghan officials said eight people were freed from a Taliban prison in the northern province of Baghlan.
Fighting has continued across Afghanistan as the withdrawal of international troops proceeds.
The planned pullout of foreign troops by September 11 after two decades has raised concerns of over the fate of the government in Kabul in the face of continued violence by Taliban militants that control large swaths of the country.
With reporting by dpa and TOLOnews
By RFE/RL Gandhara
May 25, 2021
Australia says it will close its embassy in Afghanistan this week, citing “an increasingly uncertain security environment” as international troops exit the war-torn country.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said in a May 25 statement that the embassy in Kabul would close on May 28 and that Australian diplomats plan to visit Afghanistan regularly from a post elsewhere in the region.
The United States has begun withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and is expected fully exit by September 11. Australia’s 80 troops are also leaving the country, along with U.S.-led NATO forces.
The pullout of foreign troops after two decades has raised concerns of over the fate of the government in Kabul in the face of continued violence by Taliban militants that control large swaths of the country.
The Australian government “has been advised that security arrangements could not be provided to support our ongoing diplomatic presence,” Morrison said.
The prime minister said he expected the embassy closure to be “temporary” and that “we will resume a permanent presence in Kabul once circumstances permit.”
The Afghan Foreign Ministry said it hoped Canberra would review its decision, adding it was committed to offering security to diplomatic missions.
A Taliban spokesman was quoted as saying the insurgents would “provide a safe environment” to foreign diplomats and staff of humanitarian organizations.
“The only incentive for foreign embassies to remain is the humanitarian work that they are involved in, but if their personnel are endangered then there is no point in remaining here,” AFP cited a foreign defense official based in Kabul as saying.
“Several other embassies will follow Australia in the coming weeks or months.”
With reporting by AFP and SBS News
Tolo News: The Ministry of Public Health on Tuesday reported 840 new positive cases of COVID-19 out of 2,887 samples tested in the last 24 hours. The ministry reported that the cumulative total of known COVID-19 cases is 67,743, the total number of reported deaths is 2,887, and the total number of recoveries is 56,518. Click here to read more (external link).
Related
Tolo News: The Afghan government, facing widespread protests, has agreed to recall newly-appointed governor Mohammad Daud Laghmani to Kabul and to authorize the deputy governor to lead the province, for the time being, a member of the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan (Junbish-e-Milli) said. Enayatullah Babur Farahmand said that the government has also agreed to keep the acting governor in place until the post is filled with a new pick agreed on by both Abdul Rashid Dostum and the Presidential Palace. Click here to read more about (external link).