By Mustafa Sarwar
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
April 16, 2026

As US President Donald Trump says the war in Iran could be over “very soon” and Pakistani mediators in Tehran to meet with officials, another nearby conflict has been drawing Beijing’s attention.

Since late February, fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has intensified, with Islamabad declaring an “open war” with its neighbor. Strikes have killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Afghanistan. The conflict has alarmed the international community and perturbed China, which is a partner to both countries and sensitive to violence along its western borders.

Against that backdrop, Beijing has stepped in to play a diplomatic role, announcing on April 8 that it hosted weeklong talks in Urumqi in western China in hopes of brokering a cease-fire. At stake is not just tempering hostilities but a broader test of China’s ability to manage instability on its periphery, where it has deep economic and political ties.

While all sides have publicly backed dialogue, deep disagreements over militant groups and cross-border attacks threaten to derail any meaningful de-escalation. Delegations from all three sides were quick to tout the value of the talks. China’s Foreign Ministry called them “frank and pragmatic,” while the Taliban called them “useful” and said they took place “in a constructive atmosphere.”

But even as the talks were under way, Afghanistan accused Pakistan of carrying out shelling across its border, raising questions about whether China can end the conflict and how much diplomatic capital it is willing to attach to the discussions as it also navigates the war in Iran.

“The Taliban and Pakistani diplomats know how to come up with word formulas that make China look good and even limited border easement measures,” Michael Semple, an Afghanistan expert at Queen’s University Belfast, told RFE/RL. “But agreement on the issue of Taliban support for the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is likely to prove elusive for now.”

Pakistan has long alleged that Taliban-run Afghanistan harbors fighters from the TTP, a militant group that carries out cross-border attacks — allegations the Afghan Taliban denies.

Testing Beijing’s Influence

Analysts believe both Pakistan and the Taliban value China as a strategic partner.

For Islamabad, Beijing is a valuable counterweight to its archrival, India, and a needed source of foreign investment. For the Taliban, China represents a massive nearby market that could help its struggling economy while also presenting a partner to help the government gain full international recognition after the militants seized power in 2021.

But while China has leverage on paper, it’s unclear how much pressure it is willing to apply.

Beijing has typically taken a back seat in international mediation, confining its efforts to situations likely to yield quick results, such as a 2023 deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that re-established diplomatic ties between the two Middle Eastern rivals.

Amid the war in Iran, Beijing has also mostly kept its public distance, welcoming foreign delegations and looking to portray itself as an arbiter of international norms. This is in contrast to the United States, such as when Chinese leader Xi Jinping called the US blockade of Iranian ports a “return to the law of the jungle” as he hosted Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al ​Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, on April 14.

Still, some reports, including comments from Trump himself, have suggested China has used its position as Iran’s top investor and oil buyer to push toward engaging in cease-fire talks with the United States and potentially moving to wind down the fighting.

Tempering hostilities between Islamabad and Kabul will not be straightforward.

Before the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, officials from Afghanistan’s ousted government similarly accused Islamabad of supporting the Taliban on Pakistani soil, which Pakistani officials denied at the time.

There have been few official statements regarding the discussions since they wrapped up in Urumqi. Pakistan has also been playing an active diplomatic role as host to US-Iran cease-fire talks.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said during a daily briefing after the talks ended that “the three parties agreed to explore a comprehensive solution to the issues in the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and clarified the core and priority issues that need to be addressed.”

Omar Samad, a former Afghan diplomat now based in the United States, says China-backed talks created new momentum, but there is still a large gap between rhetoric and the reality on the ground.

“The talks created a narrow opening, but openings of this kind tend to close quickly when confronted with entrenched mistrust,” he told RFE/RL, adding that China and other mediators must sustain a long-term commitment to address structural issues that are “complex but not unsolvable.”

From Allies To Adversaries

While the Taliban government was initially expected to maintain Pakistani support after seizing power, ties have frayed between the former allies mainly over the TTP issue. Tensions peaked in October 2025 during a weeklong official visit by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India.

On October 9, the first day of Muttaqi’s visit, Islamabad launched air strikes across several Afghan provinces, including the capital, Kabul. Some reports initially indicated the Kabul attack targeted TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, though he later purportedly released a video to prove he was alive. In the wake of the strikes, Taliban forces launched counterattacks along the border, claiming to have killed dozens of Pakistani security personnel. Islamabad rejected those claims.

Defense ministers from both sides traveled then to Doha, the Qatari capital, on October 18 for talks mediated by Turkey, leading to a temporary cease-fire. Separate delegations later met in Istanbul that month for a follow-up meeting. That was followed by additional mediation efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but Islamabad and Kabul failed to reach a permanent truce.

Following a renewed escalation in February, a major Pakistani strike on March 16 hit the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Center at the former NATO base, Camp Phoenix, in eastern Kabul.

Taliban officials said more than 400 people were killed, while Islamabad maintained it had struck military installations. The UN later reported a death toll of 143. Human Rights Watch condemned the incident as “an unlawful attack and a possible war crime.”

“The Taliban for their part seem ideologically committed to the continuation of jihad and thus unable to distance themselves from the TTP,” said Semple. “As long as the TTP campaign continues, there is every reason to expect an intensification of the conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan.”

Copyright (c) 2026. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.

Related

• Three Dead In Pakistan After Rocket Fired From Afghanistan
• Afghanistan–Pakistan Ties: The Interlinked Dynamics of Security, Economy