Michael Hughes
March 29, 2025

As relations between Iran and Afghanistan grow warmer, the U.S. has put efforts to boost ties with the Taliban into overdrive. The FBI removed Haqqani Network bounties and diplomatic rapprochement is in full swing. Ex-envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is suddenly back on the scene – no doubt in a bid to ensure the radical movement does not get too cozy with the mullahs in Tehran.

I recently thought the Trump and Taliban 2.0 administrations were headed for a divorce. The Taliban said the Doha deal was dead, and Trump warned the radical movement he wanted America’s weapons and equipment returned. At the time it was hard to see why Trump needed to gain leverage on Kabul outside of occasional prisoner swaps. Now it is becoming clearer that perhaps there really is a method to Trump’s madness.

As predicted, the U.S. was able to negotiate the release of an American detained by the Taliban. Shortly after the U.S. quietly lifted bounties from the head of notorious terrorist Sirajuddin Haqqani and two of his cousins. This is no small feat considering members of Trump’s cabinet are intensely opposed to the Taliban. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in September of 2021, pushed legislation to designate the Taliban as a foreign terrorist organization and called the movement’s seizure of power illegitimate. Trump’s national security advisor, Michael Waltz, served in Afghanistan and has opposed talks with the Taliban. One could imagine how they must feel about the U.S. easing pressure on the likes of Haqqani. Both are silent probably because they know there are bigger fish to fry. 

What is the biggest fish on Trump’s plate? Iran. Tensions between Washington and Tehran are on the rise over Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has threatened Iran that “bad things” will happen if the regime refuses to engage in nuclear talks. The American military and foreign policy establishment is in a frenzy with Tehran on the verge of enriching uranium to weapons grade. The U.S. has also deployed bombers and aircraft carriers to the region in a show of force. 

Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly inching closer to recognizing the Taliban regime. European University Professor Emil Avdaliani has argued that regional geopolitics, economic incentives and the security situation along the border are pushing Tehran and Kabul to work more closely, and diplomatic recognition is not far behind. 

“The two sides have moved beyond the outright animosity that characterized their relations before and during the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. They are now entering a new period of cooperation, with both sides touting the idea of signing a comprehensive cooperation agreement,” Avdaliani said in a piece for World Politics Review earlier this month.

KHALILZAD’S RETURN

Out of the shadows comes Khalilzad, just as Tehran is getting close to legitimizing the Taliban movement, which would certainly cement ties and make it harder for the U.S. to use the radicals as a check on Iran. Architect of the Doha deal, Khalilzad has appeared at the center of all the action. He helped negotiate the prisoner release and now reports surfaced that the Trump administration wants him to return to his role as mediator with the Taliban. 

Khalilzad is the perfect man for the job. We argued that Khalilzad during his first tour as U.S.-Taliban envoy was part of a larger plan to counter Iran. Back then, the strategy was not as overt as it is this time around.

Khalilzad has a longstanding animus toward Iran that reaches back decades. After Khalilzad cozied up to the Taliban when they first came to power he defended the movement by saying they did not engage in the “anti-U.S. style of fundamentalism practiced by Iran.”

Khalilzad’s hatred for Iran has only grown stronger over the years. In 2023, he made bizarre accusations that Iran had struck a deal with al-Qaeda’s Saif al-Adel. According to the ex-U.S. envoy, Iran’s regime had increased reliance on terrorist groups at home and abroad.

“It is very likely that a deal has been struck between Saif and the Quds force: in exchange for Iranian sanctuary and support, al-Qaida will do the regime’s dirty work by targeting its opponents,” Khalilzad said in a tweet on February 20, 2023. 

He also urged the U.S. and its allies to “further isolate and weaken the Iranian regime’s international legitimacy.” 

Khalilzad did not initially see any direct benefits realized from the Doha deal vis-à-vis Kabul’s relations with Tehran. Of course, the fact that under Taliban rule the country swiftly reverted to a full-blown terrorist safe haven put all of Afghanistan’s neighbors at risk. An indirect benefit of Taliban rule, from Khalilzad’s perspective, was the IS-K attack in Iran in January of 2024. 

Now Khalilzad will focus on doing his utmost to sabotage the relationship between Kabul and Tehran. And we know sabotage is one of Khalilzad’s specialties.