Michael Hughes
May 17, 2024

A U.S. congressionally-funded think tank, insidiously named the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), has called on Washington to boost counterterrorism operations, enhance ties with Pakistan, and conduct more lethal strikes inside Afghan territory. Although more likely to come from a national security research outfit, the USIP recommendations are not so unreasonable. But it is easy to envision slipping into a full blow counterterrorism war against the Taliban and its minions.

USIP expert Asfandyar Mir told The Washington Times this week that the institute recommends providing CENTCOM with more spy drones to improve visibility to better conduct over-the-horizon anti-terror operations. Mir, one of the main authors of a new report by the Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, warned that terror groups like IS-K on the ground are preparing to target U.S. interests, based on the latest “chatter” and the group’s online recruiting efforts.

Mir underscored well-known facts. The terrorist threat inside Afghanistan is growing amid rising extremism and little or no effort on the part of the Taliban regime to mitigate the risks. Well-trained alienated militants, radicalized by entities like IS-K, are tapping into weapons left by the U.S. coalition. The “structural environment” inside Afghanistan is conducive for these militant groups to only grow stronger in number and capabilities. 

The USIP report bemoaned the fact the Biden administration tightened rules for direct lethal action against terrorists globally. And as a result, the U.S. has conducted only one drone strike in Afghanistan (against Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri) since Western forces exited the country in 2021. The report suggests making rules of engagement “less restrictive” but not to the level of a conventional war zone.

One of the key steps the U.S. government should consider, according to the group of experts, is “targeting with lethal action in Afghanistan those groups that are planning or involved in plots against the US homeland and interests.” And employing “show of force” with drone strikes on Taliban leaders and others assisting terrorist groups. The report also recommends targeting terrorists involved in kidnappings, and the final tier is “uncertain, high impact terrorist threats.” The final category will encompass terrorists making “rapid territorial advances” in areas such as Pakistan. 

But the U.S. cannot be effective at countering terrorism in the region without use of Pakistani airspace and military bases in South and Central Asia. CENTCOM’s limited number of surveillance drones spend too much time traversing long distances from Middle East bases, hence targeting accuracy is compromised, according to the report.

The report says the U.S. should leverage security aid with Pakistan to crack down on TTP while getting Islamabad to support Washington’s top anti-terror objectives. This includes securing “long-term airspace access for operations in Afghanistan.” However, the group warns that such military aid should be “calibrated” to reduce the likelihood that Pakistan would find the assistance “useful in attacking India.”

The USIP report comes just as the U.S and Pakistan have agreed to the importance of bilateral cooperation against terror threats in Afghanistan as well as the TTP. The two sides agreed in talks to step up collaboration to “detect and deter” violent extremism through “whole-of-government approaches.” 

The USIP has acknowledged the “baggage” and distrust that exists between Washington and Islamabad when it comes to selective pursuit of terrorist targets. Tops among these issues, not explicitly stated in the report, is the fact the U.S found Osama bin Laden in a fortress next to Pakistan’s “West Point” 13 years ago amidst the continual “war on terror.” Listed as one of the key steps for the U.S. government to consider is the following:

“Communicating to Pakistani leaders that if terrorists based in or backed by Pakistan carry out attacks in India, there will be serious negative repercussions for bilateral ties,” the report says.

The report warns that the U.S. would be put at risk by underestimating the terror threats in Afghanistan and Pakistan and focusing too heavily on great power competition with Russia and China. Besides, the group argues, an attack on the American homeland would distract U.S. leaders and divert resources from the strategic great power rivalries. Moreover, failure to act might lead to heightening of tensions between Pakistan and India.

“A major attack in an Indian city by a terrorist group, for example, could trigger an India-Pakistan military standoff with the risk of escalating to a nuclear exchange. Such a crisis would also significantly distract India from focusing on the challenge presented by China,” the USIP report stated.

As crazy as it might seem on the surface, perhaps some of the institute of peace’s war plans are some of the best of bad options. What else can be done? On the other hand – it can be easy to forget the law of unintended consequences. We’ve all seen this movie too many times.