Michael Hughes
November 16, 2024

The Taliban stroked President Donald Trump’s ego with a love letter that directly led to the administration’s decision to accelerate negotiations, strike the Doha deal, and withdraw forces from Afghanistan, ending a 20-year conflict. However, the Trump 2.0 administration is dangerous because the man does not need to get re-elected. Trump does not even need to satiate his base. All Trump cares about now is his legacy – which includes not being made to look the fool.

This could go one of two ways: Trump chills and enjoys the ride or, now unhindered, acts out even more aggressively in knee-jerk reaction to any and all perceived slights. And this version of Trump the Taliban should fear. 

The Taliban have tried to lay the groundwork for forging another cozy relationship with the U.S. once the comeback tycoon reenters the White House. The Taliban, who appeared so adept at manipulating American politicians – as if they had some uncanny insight into Washington’s innerworkings – seemed absurdly out of touch in a post-election statement.

“It is anticipated that Mr. Trump will assume a constructive role in de-escalating current conflicts in the region & globally, with particular attention to addressing the ongoing violence & aggression in Gaza & Lebanon,” the statement issued by the Taliban foreign ministry stated.

The first question is: in what universe do the Taliban envision Trump doing anything that Israel might object to? Trump, to be sure, has been less hawkish than nearly every Republican in Washington – and even most Democrats. But I believe this has been more due to happenstance than design or ideology. I think the Iranians, always the realists, have a better understanding of what makes Trump tick in the long run. Trump, even more than most U.S. presidents, is under Israel’s thumb.

Some well-intentioned foreign policy specialists also seem to misunderstand Trump. Experts from the Royal Danish Defense College and the Washington-based Quincy Institute in an op-ed in Foreign Policy called on Trump to “engage” the Taliban more and ensure the U.S. has a presence in Afghanistan.

“Trump should leverage his unique credibility with the Taliban, as the architect of the Doha Agreement, to pursue a forward-looking diplomacy, rather than return to the mistakes of the past,” the experts wrote in a piece published on November 14.

Trump, let us remember, was once a Democrat. Famous photos from his wedding in 2005 show Trump chatting it up with Bill and Hillary Clinton. Point being, Trump has no enduring value system, let alone policy positions, and cares little about any “unique credibility” he may or may not have with a notorious Sunni radical movement. 

Moreover, Trump has constructed a cabinet with neocons in very important positions including Marco Rubio as top diplomat and Mike Waltz as security advisor. Waltz, the man who will have Trump’s ear on matters of defense, is a military veteran who derided the Doha deal, describing it as an “unconditional surrender.” Trump has already shown he will turn on the dime when it comes to Afghanistan if it suits his immediate needs. For example, Trump had the following to say about the billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment the U.S. left in Afghanistan.

“If it is not handed back, we should either go in with unequivocal Military force and get it, or at least bomb the hell out of it,” Trump said in a statement in August of 2021.

Although a real long shot, there is the possibility that Putin might play Trump. The Great Orange One may not have to get reelected but he still has a massive ego and will want to follow through on campaign trail promises. Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine and will need Putin to play nice and help Kiev end the conflict with at least an ounce of dignity (let’s put aside the fact that Congress can override any Trump veto to continue sending military aid to Ukraine). In return, Moscow could press Trump to do something about the U.S. deep state grooming and launching Afghan-based terrorists to destabilize Russia’s underbelly.

Trump is one of the few presidents to push back against the deep state, but one can only go so far. The last president to do it successfully, John F. Kennedy, found himself dead. Kennedy in a speech at American University in June of 1963 announced that the U.S. and Soviet Union had agreed to a test ban treaty. Kennedy reportedly never ran the speech by his national security council, as was common practice. Less than six months later, JFK was taken out in Dallas.

Hence, it is hard to see Trump taking action to end shadowy American elements from fueling terrorism throughout Central Asia. Plus, Trump has probably had his fill of assassination attempts.