Michael Hughes
March 1, 2025

Trump 2.0 and Taliban 2.0 were likely destined to clash, but who knew the unlikely bedfellows would kill their marriage within weeks of the Dealmaker-In-Chief reentering the Oval Office. We knew Trump would go after the $7 billion in military aid the U.S. left behind in Afghanistan, but less foreseeable was the radical movement daring to metaphorically tear up the Doha deal so soon and so publicly.

In a TV interview on February 28, chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid declared that the Taliban government would no longer abide by the Doha agreement – a deal struck with the Trump 1.0 administration which led to the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces. The Taliban announcement came roughly five years from the day the agreement was signed.

We all know the Taliban have violated the agreement from day one, although the regime denies this. Taliban officials have repeatedly claimed the radical group has met the most important terms of the withdrawal deal: not allowing Afghanistan to become a terrorist safe haven. The Taliban have rather brazenly accused the Americans of failing to meet their part of the bargain, including the lifting of sanctions and enhancement in diplomatic engagement.

Contrary to distancing the group from international jihadists, the Taliban’s relationship with al-Qaeda has never been tighter. The reality is Afghanistan is more of a terrorist safe haven than it was before 9/11. Hence, the deal has been de facto obsolete for years. But this pronouncement will not sit well with the real-estate tycoon. If anything, Trump fancies himself as the penultimate businessman – and a deal is a deal. And every proper deal has a termination clause. But the Taliban, no doubt, are unlikely to pay any penalties. So, Trump will continue to look for ways to boost U.S. leverage.

Trump does make one good point: the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal strategy is the reason the equipment was left behind in the first place. What gets lost amidst the noise is the likelihood that the exit could have been much smoother were Biden to simply follow Trump’s withdrawal schedule. Instead, team Biden delayed the exit until it was too late.

Unless they are willing to launch a full-scale invasion, the U.S. military will never again see the weaponry and vehicles it gifted the Taliban. The U.S. has a better chance of digging up Ukraine’s rare earths. But Trump will continue to use this as a talking point to rattle the radicals. And considering his administration had the audacity to press the stop button on USAID programs, it is likely they will do their utmost to freeze all aid flows to Afghanistan. About $21 billion in U.S. taxpayer funding has flowed into Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul. Most of the funding was earmarked for humanitarian assistance, refugee resettlement, and the repayment of Afghan foreign assets. According to ex-watchdog chief John Sopko, a sizable portion of this funding has likely ended up in Taliban hands.

Then again, it is hard to believe the Trump administration will realistically spend any more time worrying about Afghanistan than the Biden administration did post-withdrawal. The noise out of the White House is more about Trump’s ego than material interests. Trump apparently wants to try and implement every promise uttered on the campaign trail. 

Because, in terms of actual interests, outside of the occasional prisoner swap, what does Trump need leverage for? The Pentagon, with a 2025 budget totaling $850 billion, buys shiny new toys every year. Why fall over backwards to reclaim used equipment that has depreciated in value? 

Not to mention, as Trump himself has said, a portion of the weaponry has found its way onto the black market. Trump’s allegation that the Taliban are “one of the biggest sellers of military equipment in the world” might need fact-checking, considering a majority of the most expensive items can be seen at Taliban military parades. But Trump is directionally accurate. And what more could we want?

In terms of anti-terror cooperation, as we have long suspected, the U.S. deep state wants Afghanistan to remain a jihadist factory to terrorize the region and keep Russia and China off-balance. And, let’s be realistic – it is highly unlikely improving human rights in Afghanistan is at the top of Trump’s agenda.

The Taliban perhaps need Trump more than Trump needs them. The Taliban regime certainly does not want to relinquish any American military equipment. They will need the weaponry in a bid to maintain power. Plus, the equipment has high prestige value for the radical movement. And don’t forget, the Taliban have repeatedly asked the United States to provide them with more weapons, ostensibly for fighting IS-K.

The Taliban could use American support for sanctions relief and for legitimacy. However, the latter was probably more likely under the Biden administration. The only way this administration can improve the Taliban’s international standing is if Trump improves his own – something he neither wants nor needs.