Michael Hughes
December 2, 2023

New Delhi’s policy towards Kabul since the Taliban takeover would probably impress the likes of one of the most famous realist practitioners in modern history – Henry Kissinger, who passed away at the age of 100 this week. Hindu nationalist India’s nuanced approach to the radical Sunni regime is in one sense somewhat impressive – exhibiting a level of tolerance, however superficial and expedient, while advancing India’s geostrategic objectives. 

However, if the Modi government practices the art of realism in too naked a fashion, it risks alienating some key stakeholders and wasting the political capital it has long sought, especially vis-à-vis its rivalry with Islamabad.

Political realism’s central tenet is that state’s must, at any and all cost, seek to serve the national interest – defined as physical security and economic prosperity. Mainstream International Relations (IR) – capitalized to differentiate the theory from actual relations between states – is a highly flawed discipline for it offers little alternatives outside of political realism. And there is little evidence realism is actually useful when it comes to predicting developments (like the end of the Cold War – oops). In fact, it has become more of an ideology than an explanatory and/or prescriptive social science.

Although Neoliberalism is spun as the opposing school of thought, it rests on the same assumptions as realism. Neoliberals certainly put a higher priority on trade, institutions, and so-called values, but even the promotion of values could be seen as a realist weapon. For example, some think the U.S. invaded Iraq to spread democracy, a neoliberal sentiment. On the other hand, others argue it was a realist move cloaked under the rhetoric of values to secure the oil fields. Making such assessments is even more difficult when we factor in miscalculations and perceptions, regardless the intent. Whatever America’s objectives were in invading Afghanistan, to many it resembled colonial occupation.

Realist scholars like to claim a lineage that includes Thucydides, Machiavelli, and Hobbes, but the formal doctrines were not set out until German émigré and University of Chicago professor Hans Morgenthau published the “realist bible,” Politics Among Nations, in 1948. Morgenthau laid out the realist maxim: global politics – just like all politics – is a struggle for power. According to mainstream realist IR theory, power is the sole law of the jungle. And, important with respect to the current station – moral issues will be cast aside should they hinder the pursuit of power and defense of the national interest.

 Kissinger, who died at the age of 100 earlier this week, was a realist strategist extraordinaire with a controversial track record throughout Asia and the Middle East. He helped open the door with China but orchestrated the secret carpet-bombing of Cambodia and backed Pakistan’s mass slaughter in Bangladesh. But the philosophy that guided him is the same one influencing policymakers in every major country across the globe. And India is no exception.

INDIAN REALPOLITIQUE

Journalist Ruchi Kumar in a piece for Al Jazeera, explores the irony and contradictions that underly India’s current policy toward the Taliban, especially in light of history. After all, New Delhi has long-viewed Afghan groups like the Haqqani Network as Pakistani proxies responsible for horrific attacks against Indian interests inside Afghanistan.

One could argue that New Delhi has a better relationship with Kabul as tensions between the Taliban and Islamabad hit new highs. Pakistan has blasted the Taliban over cross-border attacks emanating from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Islamabad, for its part, has ordered the mass exportation of Afghan refugees. New Delhi is well-positioned to exploit this divide, although analysts warn that following Morgenthau’s maxim too strictly comes with a cost.

“The charge that India is now colluding with the Taliban is in many ways an inversion of what New Delhi accused Pakistan of, for close to three decades,” Kumar wrote in an article published on December 1. “A deterioration in ties between the Taliban and Pakistan has helped India’s gambit. But New Delhi risks losing goodwill among a generation of Afghans that had viewed it as a supporter of education, democracy and human rights.”

Highlighting recent actions, the author starts by pointing to the November 24 shuttering of the last Afghan diplomatic post in India that was associated with the ousted Ghani government. Closed reportedly due to pressure from the Taliban and Indian government. Moreover, since June 2022, Indian diplomats have cozied up to Taliban officials while the country sends large volumes of wheat to Afghanistan in coordination with Kabul.

Most conspicuous has been the absence of condemnation from New Delhi over Taliban human rights abuses. Raghav Sharma, director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at OP Jindal Global University in Sonipat, argued that India does not want to offend Taliban “sensibilities.” This is largely because India wants to protect its diplomatic mission inside Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s influence.

In a statement that only underscores the trappings of the realist legacy, the head of Afghanistan’s recently-closed diplomatic post, former ambassador Farid Mamundzay, expressed deep disappointment over New Delhi’s policy.

“India has sent the message that political expediency and realpolitik trump everything else,” Mamundzay said.