Michael Hughes
July 19, 2024

Afghanistan was not at the forefront of mind for most American voters in 2020, but four years later the situation is much different. With less than four months until the U.S. presidential election Afghanistan is at the center of attention, but not about go-forward policies. It is all about the past. The fall of Kabul is still alive as a hot political issue, revived time and again by the Republicans, a fiasco the Biden administration wants to bury, and most Afghans likely want to forget.

Family members of thirteen U.S. troops killed in the 2021 Kabul terrorist attack took to center stage at the Republican National Convention (RNC) this week to chastise Biden for his handling of the Afghan withdrawal. Cynical no doubt, but an impressive political stunt by the Republicans, and devastating for the Biden campaign. Ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a hot convention speech said he was disgusted by the “incompetent” rush from Afghanistan and suggested Biden is unfit to answer the proverbial “3:00 a.m. phone call” during a national security crisis.

In AOP we pinpointed the moment in the middle of August of 2021 that may have irreversibly changed the course of Biden’s destiny, when the world saw images of Afghans falling out of planes. Biden’s job approval and disapproval ratings crossed paths for the first time on August 21, 2021, according to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls. The U.S. president’s RCP favorability rating would fall from 48% to 37% by the end of July with the disapproval rating reaching a high of 57%, an astounding 20% gap. Biden’s approval rating would never rise above the 45% mark and the disapproval sentiment would never sink below the 50% threshold over the next almost four years. 

Ex-President Donald Trump, a convicted criminal impeached by the House for starting an insurrection, is beating Biden in national polls by about 3% on average. For readers not familiar with U.S. presidential elections, let me underscore that strictly speaking the popular vote means nothing to the selection of a U.S. president. It comes down to winning states. And the bad news for Biden is that the New York billionaire magnate is ahead in all seven “battleground” states, six of which the former Obama administration vice president won in 2020. The future of the Republic may lie in the largest of these states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan. Trump is ahead by 4.5% in Pennsylvania, +4% in Georgia, and +1.7% in Michigan. Polls typically have a 3% margin of error for each candidate, implying the possibility of a 6% swing, hence statistically Trump is no shoo-in. But these numbers have Biden’s political campaign absolutely scared to death, and the reason more Democrats by the day are calling on the president to step aside.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month, 20% of voters say they are undecided, leaning toward a third-party candidate, or not going to vote at all. At this point in the contest every potential mental impression left on undecided voters is a key focus. Aside from the late entry of another Democratic candidate, a highly likely development, Biden’s age and competency will be decisive in voter minds, I do suspect. Weighing this against Trumpian instability. 

And here is where the Afghan exit fiasco comes in because, aside from Biden’s recent historically horrid debate performance, it is the worst period of his presidency in the eyes of voters. Biden’s decisions on the nature and timing of the U.S. withdrawal shine the brightest light on the gap between the president’s mind and reality. The epic failure shows a leader disconnected, uncaring, and irresponsible. And, in retrospect, a sign that Biden was unfit to hold office all along.

Trump at times exhibits remarkable political instincts. A case in point being his actions during the recent assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. Fist raised. Face covered in blood from a bullet-pierced ear. U.S. flag flying in the background. A real-time campaign picture one could never stage. The former president also knows what keys to hit to call into question Biden’s capacity to lead the world’s most expensive military. During the speech he delivered while accepting the Republican Party’s presidential nomination on July 18, Trump singled out the very event we discussed, the one that began the Biden administration’s spiral downward. 

“It began to unravel with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Trump said in an ominous tone, a patch on his wounded ear. “The worst humiliation in the history of our country.”

It began to unravel indeed. It is impossible to predict which political issue will be most decisive for those yet to decide, but the Afghan fiasco will certainly play a role. In the end, the occupation and hasty retreat from Afghanistan could be productive for the Republican Party. But it serves no useful purpose for Afghans, who have suffered more than anyone because of it.