Michael Hughes
June 15, 2024

A number of UNSC members in March of 2023 agreed that the Taliban needed to be held accountable for treatment of women, human rights abuses, and violations of international law. Last July, the Security Council released a disturbing report that shined a bright light on the Taliban-terrorist nexus plaguing Afghanistan. UN member states cited concerns over the Taliban’s burgeoning solidarity with al-Qaeda and other extremist outfits. Since the fall of Kabul hardly a week went by without the U.S. and its allies calling on the Taliban to stop being the Taliban. Literally the entire world vowed to withhold legitimacy until the Taliban implemented reforms. My, how things change.

One cannot turn around without reading about the Taliban securing some political or economic gain in exchange for, well, nothing. A state will endow the Taliban with such and such a gift while calling on the group to establish an inclusive government and “yadda, yadda, yadda.” But the Taliban do not really commit to anything.

The Taliban actually appeared much more geopolitically in tune as insurgents, able to convince the world’s largest military power to get the heck out of Afghanistan so the radical movement could capture Kabul – once again. The Taliban of course, bluntly lied about engaging in talks with Ghani and meeting other conditions of the exit pact. This time around it does not seem like the Taliban need to promise a thing.

Imtiaz Gul in The Express Tribune captures the current situation vividly, observing plans for the so-called Doha III talks the UN is brokering at the end of June (a meeting the Taliban might not even attend). In recent diplomatic efforts the U.S. has looked the other way and the UN has actually eased sanctions allowing characters like Taliban interior minister – and jihadist maniac – Sirajuddin Haqqani, to travel freely to chat it up with UN, EU, and Abu Dhabi officials.

“A new realism perhaps is dawning on both the Afghan Taliban and the Western allies,” Gul wrote in a piece published on June 8. “Will Doha-III mark a semblance of a middle ground for the stakeholders, albeit without losing face – a big bargain born out of real-politik?”

The West, Gul argued, realizes that the Taliban regime is “here to stay.”

“The absence of an organized opposition and literally no appetite for armed conflict – neither among the people nor external players – is a big factor playing in favor of the Taliban right now,” Gul said.

One dilemma is that it is hard to isolate Afghanistan without hurting Afghans. Gul wonders if the West is prepared to “forego insistence on the restoration of women employment and education rights,” given survival of millions of Afghans in financial distress is the bigger fish to fry.

The West is not the only ones freely handing the Taliban political and financial victories. Russia is suddenly mulling delisting them as a terror group, to the shock of many. However, it makes sense for Moscow. Russia wants Central Asia to be a friendly neighborhood – or at least not a breeding ground for terrorists. Russia might be hoping to boost cooperation with the Taliban against the Islamic State. In any event, Russia sees little upside in keeping the Taliban isolated and much upside in having closer ties with Kabul. China, for its part, has been investing in Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal, although it is hard to see how Beijing has benefitted. 

There seems to be much wishful thinking all around on persuading the Taliban to take action. The Taliban, according to Gul, realize Kabul will have to take women’s rights “into consideration” to boost international trade and enable financial transactions. But it does not look like the Taliban are ready to think or talk about women’s rights at all anytime soon. The radical movement has tried to even remove the topic, along with inclusive government, from the Doha III agenda. Back in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s reclusive leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has rejected all calls for reforms.

In fact, things have gotten worse, not better. In a letter to the UN, Human Rights Watch noted that since the February Doha meeting “the Taliban’s abuses against Afghan women and girls, already unparalleled globally and condemned by international experts as gender apartheid, have continued to deepen.”

“While members of the international community are moving perilously close to accepting the legitimacy of Taliban rule, Afghanistan’s women, who are bravely fighting back and paying a devastating price as a result, are not,” HRW wrote in a letter posted on June 10.

Political and economic gifts to the Taliban could be seen as something more positive if the Taliban actually took a single step towards easing restrictions on women and loosening ties with al-Qaeda. There is little evidence to suggest, however, that the Taliban will do either.