8am: The question here is whether the current conflict over Hirmand water is serious? And do the threats from Iranian officials and lower-ranking Taliban fighters signal the seriousness of the conflict? – The answer to the two questions above is “no.” Engaging in a military conflict is not beneficial for either Iran or the Taliban. It appears that verbal tensions and issuing warnings also serve domestic consumption for both sides. Although an Iranian military commander stated that the Taliban group is smaller than the one they attacked, the reality is that Iran, considering its internal problems such as inflation, labor protests, the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, the JCPOA, the nuclear energy issue, the shadow of ISIS in its neighborhood, and its similarities to the Taliban, does not see a reason to attack and lacks the capacity to do so. The warning about water is also issued to manage public opinion in Iran and quell the protests of the people of Sistan and Baluchestan. Click here to read more (external link).
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