Will Iran become another Iraq for Afghanistan?
Mohammad S. Tahir
July 3, 2009
Recently, you can't pick up a newspaper or watch any news program without
reading about or hearing about the protests in Iran over the elections. The West
is claiming that the elections are a sham and that the people of Iran have risen
up against their oppressive government and are demanding their voices be heard and
their votes actually counted. In return, the Iranian government is accusing the
West, particularly the United States and Britain of financing the opposition and
interfering in their internal matters just like they did when they spread
misinformation and paid protestors in order to isolate Mosaddeq and eventually
overthrow his democratically elected government in 1953. The Shah, Mohammad Reza
Pahlavi helped the Americans and the British in the overthrow of Mosaddeq. He
was rewarded for his actions by the Americans and the British, and was made the
all-powerful ruler of Iran. In 1979, the Shah was then overthrown by the people
of Iran and an independent Iranian government was formed once again.
Despite whom you believe and what the reality is, the outcome will be bad for
Afghanistan if the government of Iran collapses because chaos will ensue.
Afghanistan will once again become the "other war", and most if not all of the
attention will be given to Iran as the West tries to establish a "true"
democracy in Iran.
When the United States aligned themselves with the anti-Taliban opposition in
late 2001 to overthrow the Taliban and Al Qaeda, many Afghans believed that
Afghanistan was finally going to be saved, and that peace and prosperity will
finally come to their nation. Sadly, that did not happen, because shortly after
removing the Taliban from Kabul, the United States instead of making sure the
job was finished, changed gears and the set their sights on invading Iraq and
overthrowing Saddam Hussein. In 2003, U.S. President George W. Bush officially
ordered his army to invade Iraq. While the Iraqi army was easily overwhelmed and
Saddam's government buckled and collapsed, an aggressive insurgency was born.
Various volunteers from around the Muslim world poured into Iraq for a piece of
the action against the Americans. The majority of the American people didn't
realize the resistance they would face as the U.S. president and his followers
told them that the Iraqis would embrace them as liberators. In reality, the
Iraqis saw the Americans as invaders and occupiers. At the same time, a civil
war between the Shiites and Sunnis erupted. Iraq was out of control and the war
captured everyone's attention. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the Taliban used that
distraction to slowly rebuild what it had lost. Even worse, they learned quickly
from the Iraqi suicide bombers how effective suicide attacks can be against a
traditional army.
As the violence escalated, and U.S. soldiers started to die, Americans
started to question the decision to invade Iraq. They understood why their
country had invaded Afghanistan, but they questioned the validity of the motives
for the Iraqi invasion, and soon they no longer wanted to be a part of the
occupation, which was clearly based on lies. In early 2008, the major candidates in the Democratic Party in the
United States, including Barack Obama, even campaigned against the war and spoke
of bringing their troops home. This put a lot of pressure on George W. Bush, and
he needed to do something about the increasing violence. He decided to implement
a "surge", and ordered more U.S. soldiers to Iraq. Many believe the surge worked as
the level of violence did die down a bit. As the violence decreased in Iraq, the
issues in Afghanistan resurfaced in the Western media. The West had learned that
while their governments were busy in Iraq, Afghanistan was falling apart.
Now, Afghanistan has become the main focus of attention again. The Americans
have put together a plan to exit from Iraq a large number of their troops and
push more towards winning the war in Afghanistan and finally getting rid of the
Taliban threat once and for all. Unfortunately, now Iran has captured the
headlines, and it's very likely that Iran will be another Iraq for Afghanistan,
especially if the Americans are actually thinking of regime change in Iran. The
future for Afghanistan and the hope of finally defeating the Taliban and Al
Qaeda in Afghanistan will be crushed if this happens.
In terms of geography and population, Iran is much bigger than Iraq, and
militarily, much more complex to deal with. One can easily predict that
thousands, if not, a million people will die, and the resistance against the
West will be much stronger. If the Islamic government running Iran right now
collapses, Americans will most likely find themselves in another brutal guerilla
war. The supporters of the Islamic government will not go away quietly, and one
can assume that because of the years of tremendous pressure the Western world
has put on the Iranian government, they have prepared themselves for the day
when Western troops invade their country. It will further destabilize a shaky
Middle East.
If the United States is really planning a regime change in Iran, then one can
easily assume that they will take resources out of Afghanistan and put them to
work in Iran, just like it was done when the Iraq war was started in 2003. Once
again the timing for the Americans to turn their attention elsewhere has come at
a very critical point for Afghanistan. On August 20th, the Afghan people will vote for the next president of Afghanistan. Having this election go
off without disruption from the Taliban is very important for Afghanistan.
Without a considerable amount of U.S. and NATO assistance, the Taliban will have
a much easier time disrupting the elections.
It's not just the American resources Afghans have to worry about. Since the
fall of the Taliban from Kabul, the Iranians have been very generous to
Afghanistan. They have built roads, schools and much more. If an Iranian
invasion occurs and chaos ensues in Iran, Afghans will lose the much needed
Iranian reconstruction assistance, as they will be too busy fighting against
their invaders.
Thanks to Afghanistan becoming the main focus again, the Americans have
finally taken a closer look at the number of civilian deaths as a result of
their bombing raids, as well as the effects these deaths are having on the
Afghan support for the war against the Taliban. They are now realizing that
these civilian deaths are turning the Afghan people against them. The new U.S.
General in charge of Afghanistan, Stanley A. McChrystal, has vowed to reduce the
number of civilian deaths by agreeing to reduce the number of unnecessary air
attacks or bombings per the Afghan government's suggestions. When the violence
in Iraq was at a peak, the Americans couldn't afford to look into these matters
closely.
Unfortunately, the temptation of controlling both Iraqi and Iranian oil and
finally putting an end to the perceived threat to Israel from Iran may be too
much for many leaders in America to pass up on. Depending on which side you are
on, a potential war with Iran and a regime change may or may not be good for the world,
however, one thing is for sure, it won't be good for Afghanistan. The Taliban
will never be defeated and will continue on their murderous rampage, and
Afghanistan as a whole will continue in this endless cycle of violence and
destruction that started with the Soviet Invasion. Yet again, the chance of a
peaceful future will be pushed away from the Afghan people.
Mohammad S. Tahir
can be reached at mohammad.tahir17@gmail.com
Back to Top
