Why Karzai Most Likely Will Win In August

Mohammad S. Tahir

May 18, 2009

All the candidates for the August 20th Afghan presidential elections have now officially registered. In the end, discussions about a run for the presidency by such individuals as former US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, former Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali, and former Finance Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Ahadi were put to rest as they did not officially register. Depending on their choices for Vice Presidents, these men may have been formidable opponents and quite possibly could have beaten Karzai, especially since the word on the street is that US President Barack Obama is not happy with Karzai's performance thus far. However, the lack of unity and bad choices for Vice Presidents amongst Karzai's challengers have almost ensured him a victory and re-election.

According to many experts, the major challenger to President Karzai is Dr. A. Abdullah. Dr. Abdullah had previously served as Karzai's Minister of Foreign Affairs. He was also a close aide of the late Mujahideen leader, Ahmad Shah Masood. Dr. Abdullah is supposedly representing the United Front, an alliance comprised mostly of former Mujahideen leaders and other political groups who are opposed to President Karzai.

Unfortunately for Dr. Abdullah, Mohammad Qasim Fahim, another important member of the United Front decided to go against the alliance and will instead be Karzai's choice for first Vice President, replacing Ahmad Zia Masood, the brother of the late Ahmad Shah Masood. Fahim's decision to go along with Karzai has now caused a major split in the votes Dr. Abdullah was hoping to get from Mujahideen supporters and Tajiks. In essence, this effectively neutralizes any threat from Dr. Abdullah for the presidency. Many Tajiks, especially in Panjshir province, see Fahim as Ahmad Shah Masood's successor. Another person that will take away Tajik votes from Dr. Abdullah is Abdul Latif Padram, a Tajik who founded the Afghanistan National Congress party. Karzai can count on Tajik votes thanks to Fahim, and he is also keeping Karim Khalili as his second Vice President, thus ensuring a large number of Hazara votes as well.

Dr. Abdullah selected Humayun Shah Asefi as his first Vice President and Cheragh Ali Cheragh as his second Vice President. These men are not really known throughout the general population and cannot bring in the kind of votes Dr. Abdullah needs to beat Karzai in August. It would have been wiser for him to pick Mohammad Mohaqiq as one of his Vice Presidents as that would have clearly put the Hazaras in his corner. While Khalili is admired by many Hazaras, Mohaqiq is much more respected since he played a much more direct role in defending the Hazaras against the Taliban offensives.

It seems that Dr. Abdullah's fate will be that of his fellow Panjshiri, Mohammad Yunis Qanuni. Qanuni ran against Karzai in the 2004 presidential elections and lost very badly. Karzai got 55.4% of the votes, and Qanuni came in second with 16.3% of the votes. Disunity ruined Qanuni's chances of becoming President as well. Qanuni's campaign was badly damaged when Ahmad Zia Masood decided to join Karzai's ticket, thus bringing a large percentage of votes from Mujahideen supporters and Tajiks over to Karzai.

The other major challenger to President Karzai is Ashraf Ghani, a member of the Ahmadzai tribe. Ghani served as Minister of Finance during Hamid Karzai's transitional administration and later as Chancellor of Kabul University. Ghani has been very critical of President Karzai, and has gotten the attention of a lot of Afghan intellectuals. He has called Karzai's administration corrupt, and said it lacks both a plan and a strategy, and supports drug trafficking. As far as the United States goes, if one were to guess, US President Obama would prefer Ghani over Karzai as Obama is all about "change", at least that was his campaign platform during the US presidential elections.

Ghani is seen as a very strong Pashtun challenger to President Karzai, however, he lacks support from Mujahideen supporters and even worse, many Tajiks and Hazaras see him as a Pashtunist who is out of touch with the needs of non-Pashtuns in Afghanistan. Just like Dr. Abdullah, Ghani's choices for Vice Presidents are two people that are not very well known, so this also puts him at a great disadvantage. A wiser decision would have been for Ghani to get Ramazan Bashardost, a well known anti-corruption Hazara Member of Parliament on his ticket as his first or second Vice President. Bashardost is well respected by Afghans of many different ethnic groups and it would help remove the Pashtunist reputation Ghani has with many non-Pashtuns in Afghanistan. Bashardost would also take away many Hazara votes away from Karzai.

Right now, it looks like the Pashtun vote will be split between Karzai and Ghani, however, if Ghani were to quit, then the majority of the Pashtun votes will go to Karzai and he will be almost certainly guaranteed a victory on August 20th. Neither Ghani nor Dr. Abdullah will be able to gather the necessary votes to beat Karzai, and so in 2009, unless a major surprise occurs, it seems that Karzai will once again be Afghanistan's President. 

Mohammad S. Tahir can be reached at mohammad.tahir17@gmail.com

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