Afghanistan and Current Regional Tensions
Posted: December 6, 2008
By Ambassador Mahmoud Saikal*
Great Game, Cold War, New Challenges
In the past few years, several factors have brought together mixed elements
of the 19th-century’s Great Game and the 20th-century’s Cold War into the
21st-century of Afghanistan and its surrounding regions, with a much larger
number of power players. These factors include: the Pakistan ISI’s recent
suspected bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul; the nuclear stand-off between
Iran and the Western powers; the confrontation between the Russian Federation
and Western-backed Georgia; Pakistan’s FATA turning into the solid bedrock of
terrorism; and rivalry among the Western forces in Afghanistan. The tensions
involve old players namely; the United Kingdom, Russia, Persia and the United
States, assuming slightly modified positions and new players such as India,
Pakistan, China and the Central Asian Republics. They signify the fragility of
Afghanistan’s inner and outer regions. They also indicate that once again
Afghanistan’s geo-strategic location, after a brief period of being an asset for
all, might have already turned back into a liability.
Current regional tensions
The Russian Federation, the main inheritor of the Soviet legacy, after a
period of political restructuring, economic recovery and military build-up, is
now coming out of its historical “masterly inactivity” cocoon and wishes to
regain its traditional place in regional and global games. It had reluctantly
tolerated the NATO advances in its Central Asian backyard and feels that now is
the time to sharply react to the regional motives of Western forces in
Afghanistan. It wishes to clearly express its deep concerns over the turning of
Central Asian republics into NATO “Partners of Peace” and the transfer of their
excess energy to South Asia, and the aspirations of former satellite states,
Ukraine and Georgia, to become new members of NATO.
While Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have shown some tendency towards
the West, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have still remained firm in their
allegiances with the Russian Federation and appear shy on regional platforms.
China and Iran, who have had their own deep-rooted grievances with Western
powers, have indirectly welcomed the Russian moves to Western advances in the
region. After reasserting its dominant role in world affairs, through hosting a
highly successful Olympic Games, China will slowly but surely continue to
challenge the superiority and regional agenda of the Western powers. Western
pressures, designed to prevent Iran from developing a military nuclear
capability, led Tehran coordinate its efforts with almost all forces hostile to
the US and NATO military presence in the region.
The United Kingdom, the former colonial master of South Asia, which faced
three major military defeats in Afghanistan between 1839-1919, has regained its
foothold on the Afghan side of the now disputed Durand Line that it drew as the
south-eastern border between British India and Afghanistan in 1893. Since the
start of the war on terror, despite the loss of over 117 soldiers and dedication
of massive development aid to Afghanistan, the UK has continued to call the
Taliban a home grown movement of Afghanistan and has been a lot less vocal
(compared to the US) about their Pakistani links. On occasions and in agreement
with ISI justification, British officials have classified the Taliban as a
genuine side of Afghan politics which must be taken seriously and accommodated
through power sharing arrangement.
The lack of trust between India and Pakistan over the last 60 years, with no
prospect of a resolution in the near future, has had its own catastrophic
regional impact. Islamabad continues to look at Afghanistan through its lenses
of mistrust and tension with New Delhi. Since late 2001, India has been the
biggest regional contributor towards the reconstruction and development of
Afghanistan. Pakistan’s ISI has been viewing this as Indian dominance in the
region, which must be stopped at all costs. Pakistan denies land transit
corridor between India and Afghanistan. By doing this it wants to monopolize its
own access to the highly profitable Afghan and Central Asian markets. Also, it
stops India from developing closer trade ties with the wider region. Some
radical groups which were initially nurtured by the ISI are now out of control.
Ongoing tension between Pakistani military and civilian politicians has made the
matter worse.
Afghanistan itself, after taking some regional initiatives in 2002-2006, has
failed to pursue the outcomes of these initiatives and develop consistent
pro-active regional diplomacy. The 3rd Afghan-led Regional Economic Cooperation
Conference (RECC), which was supposed to be held in Islamabad in November 2007,
is now late by ten months and it is still not known when it will be held.
Regional Cooperation Strategy of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy
(ANDS) which was supposed to go through the phase of its implementation after
the Paris Conference in June this year has already been overshadowed by a new
set of contradictory and personalized foreign policy guidelines, announced in
Kabul. Afghanistan has also been unable to develop an independent image of
itself, beyond Western influences, and emerge as a trusted regional partner. Its
presence on regional platforms has had more form than substance.
Victims of regional tensions
The war on terror, which once enjoyed the overwhelming support of regional
and international actors, has now become the first victim of escalating tensions
and rivalry among these actors. The ISI, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have emerged
as key beneficiaries, turning the tribal belt between Pakistan and Afghanistan
into an independent terrorist state. The United States, now preoccupied by its
busy regional agenda, coupled with engagement in Iraq and an upcoming election,
finds little time and not many genuine partners willing to fight the war on
terror.
The second victim of the rising regional tension is the political, security,
social and economic gains of Afghanistan in the past seven years, which has also
benefited its neighbors and the world community at large. Hundreds of newly
built schools have already been torched in southern Afghanistan. The loss of the
peace dividend of Afghanistan and the return to chaos will have international
consequences of great magnitude, threatening the standing of NATO and enhancing
the spread of terror in Western cities.
The third victim is the current and future development programs of
Afghanistan and regional economic cooperation and integration. The upsurge of
insecurity has already frozen the development of some of those regional
infrastructure projects which could have improved the security situation
significantly.
What should be done?
Given the complexity of regional issues, multi-pronged initiatives need to be
taken at unilateral, bilateral and multilateral levels, with the following
components:
On the part of Western powers (United States and its allies)
1. In close consultation and coordination with the United Nations and
Government of Pakistan, they should refocus on The War on Terror and seek a
fresh mandate from the Security Council on shifting the geography of war to
FATA area, where terrorist leadership, recruitment, training and logistic
support are located. At the same time they should come up with a restructuring
program for the ISI of Pakistan.
2. They need to take a number of confidence-building measures to reassure
Afghanistan and its neighbors that their military presence in the region is
solely for the purpose of War on Terror and stabilization of Afghanistan and
no other motive is on the agenda. They should come up with an indicative
timeline for this endeavor.
3. They need to genuinely promote and support the regional cooperation
efforts of Afghanistan and its neighbors and try to coordinate their
legitimate interests with them, within a legal dialogue framework. Major
regional economic cooperation and integration projects, which will ultimately
improve security, need the technical and financial support of G8.
On the part of Regional countries
1. Initiatives need to be taken to keep the impact of inter-regional
conflicts away from Afghanistan e.g.; India-Pakistan, Iran-USA, Russia-NATO
etc…. Perhaps Afghanistan could be declared a neutral country, similar to
Switzerland. This requires its own set of policies and strategies.
On the part of Afghanistan
1. Through the implementation of the Regional Cooperation Strategy of the
ANDS, it should increase its regional cooperation technical, administrative
and coordination capacity and chalk out a pro-active and creative regional
diplomacy programme, incorporating clear strategies for resolving outstanding
regional problems, such as Durand Line, riparian waters etc…. with short,
medium and long-term benchmarks.
2. Vigorously pursue the Kabul and Delhi Declarations of RECC Process. If
holding the 3rd RECC in Islamabad faces further uncertainty, initiate early
consultation with Pakistan and other regional countries on the possibility of
holding it either in Kabul or another regional capital.
3. Appoint an authoritative, trusted, decision-making, vibrant and
professional ambassador at large for the promotion of regional cooperation.
The ambassador shall work within the framework of Afghanistan’s membership and
affiliation in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), South Asian
Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Central Asian Regional Economic
Cooperation (CAREC), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and RECC process
and enjoy the full trust of the Afghan Government, Parliament and Judiciary.
He/she should be familiar with regional issues and make sure that Afghanistan
contributes to regional stability and prosperity. He/she should enhance the
conditions for Afghanistan to resume its central role as a land bridge between
Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and the Far East, as the best way of
benefiting from increased trade and export opportunities.
4. Make specific efforts to stop the infiltration of neighboring spy agents
in the state institutions of Afghanistan and strengthen its own
counter-intelligence works.
*Mahmoud Saikal served as Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister of Afghanistan
(2005-2006) and Afghan Ambassador to Australia (2002-2005). This is the Summary
Paper of Mr. Saikal’s presentation to the Afghanistan Review Conference in Bonn,
September 2008.
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