Political Instability Hinders Pakistan Response to DI Khan Attack
Michael Hughes
December 15, 2023
The rulers in Kabul from an “official” perspective have a level of plausible deniability with respect to the recent attack on a military barracks in northwest Pakistan. That is, as of now, there is no direct evidence the current de facto Afghan government was involved in the attack’s planning, resourcing, and/or execution. The fingerprints are not clear. Sort of reminds one of terror attacks inside Afghanistan that everyone and their cousin knew would not be possible without support from Rawalpindi.
Pakistan’s government appears to believe the Taliban, at a minimum, can locate and hand over those responsible for the six-man suicide attack in Dera Ismail Khan, which killed at least 23 troops. A newly formed TTP-linked terror outfit, Tahreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), took credit for the attacks, while multiple sources reported that an Afghan was among the attackers.
Islamabad may suspect the Afghan Taliban have a significant amount of blood on their hands given the strategic logic – as spelled out in an editorial in one of Pakistan’s leading daily newspapers.
“The surge in militant violence in recent weeks could be a reaction to the new Pakistani policy of non-tolerance towards undocumented refugees,” The Nation’s editors said in a piece published on December 13.
The attacks also come just ahead of nationwide elections, but the motives are less clear other than a desire to cause political instability, regardless which Pakistani party benefits in the long run. The Afghan Taliban have no horses in the race but seek chaos for the sake of chaos alone, one argument goes. In this sense, given concerns that the elections in Pakistan might be delayed again over security fears, the attack may have been effective.
The high-profile attack also showcases a lever that Kabul can continue pulling, thereby sending a message to Islamabad to back off or at least keep any response measured.
FEW LEGITIMATE OPTIONS
Pakistan’s army chief just happens to be in Washington this week looking to boost counterterrorism commitments. The U.S. has already been funding a number of programs designed to boost Pakistan’s antiterror capabilities. As Pakistan asks the Pentagon for more assistance, it is impossible to resist pointing out the irony that the TJP attackers reportedly wore American-made night vision goggles – part of the billions in military equipment U.S. forces left in Afghanistan. In fact, since the Taliban takeover Pakistan police and security forces have been hard-pressed to counter attacks by militants wielding advanced American weaponry. In an ominous speech in early December, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman said the general election should not be held on February 8, 2023 in light of the unstable security situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
“There is no police in Dera Ismail Khan, Tank, and Lakki Marwat. Can the polls be staged in this situation of unrest?” the senior politician said at a presser in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s often aimless caretaker government, in place since parliament was dissolved in July, has reassured the public it will not hinder the election process. That this statement had to be made at all says a lot. Pakistan’s government and military officials have been abstract and obscure in public statements in the wake of the attack. For example, Rawalpindi said the armed forces of Pakistan “stand resolute and committed to eliminate the menace of terrorism from the motherland at all cost.”
Behind the scenes there is much frustration given many have a taste for vengeance and want to strike at the source of the problem – that is, in neighboring Afghanistan. Since the group was founded in February, the TJP have conducted half a dozen attacks on Pakistani security targets. However, the DI Khan attack is different. Citing unnamed sources, Sakshi Tiwari, a reporter for The EurAsian Times, said there are rumblings in Pakistan that this attack may represent a tipping point, given it is one of the bloodiest the country’s security establishment has seen in years.
“While Pakistan has been silent regarding potential ways to exact revenge for the DI Khan killings, drone strikes and cross-border raids that target terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan are both on the table,” Tiwari wrote.
These ambitious sentiments, however, might be wishful thinking and are being drowned out by the election turmoil, refugee crisis, the “cipher case” controversy, and tensions with India. Moreover, the supposed avengers’ would-be antiterror response seems quite tactical and may even turn out to be counterproductive. International forces have been trying to thwart terrorists in Afghanistan from the air for years. And some experts have wondered if they have created more militants than they’ve killed.
However, although such a limited response is questionable, a ground invasion is also hard to envision. Pakistan’s interim government is unable to hold elections let alone coordinate such an offensive. At this point, until elections are finally held and some semblance of political stability is established, Pakistan’s only option is to, futilely, lecture the Taliban regime.
And the Taliban know this.