The Long Arm Of Pakistan
By: Haroun Mir
July 2, 2008
The latest terrorist attack on a prison in Kandahar was not the work of the
Taliban alone. In fact, all significant terrorist attacks during the last
several months in Afghanistan have the imprint of Al-Qaida both in the planning
and execution.
Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai's harsh reaction against Pakistan, by
threatening to send Afghan troops into Pakistani soil to fight Al-Qaida and the
Taliban in their safe houses, shows the frustration of the Afghan leadership
against Pakistan's latest peace agreements with the Taliban.
The US military in Afghanistan is convinced of Pakistan's duplicity and
cannot ignore the threat coming from a reinvigorated Al-Qaida in Pakistan.
The series of well-organised terrorist attacks in Afghanistan since January
of this year, such as the attack on Serena Hotel, an assassination attempt
against Karzai and the latest attack on a prison in Kandahar, show that either
the Taliban has improved its powers to strike or Al-Qaida has regained its lost
influence in Afghanistan.
The 2007 United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan report on suicide
attacks in Afghanistan indicated that Taliban suicide bombers are often inept.
In many instances they have killed only themselves and not their intended
targets. Also, most of them are uneducated and come from the poorest segments of
the population.
It seems highly unlikely that they could have improved in the short period of
less than a year.
In addition, in all of the latest terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, the
Afghan police seem to have assisted the terrorists.
The infiltration of Afghan security forces is out of reach and beyond the
capability of the Taliban. Only Al-Qaida has the capacity to recruit security
officials and organise highly sophisticated attacks in the heart of
well-protected cities such as Kabul and Kandahar.
Since political turmoil started in Pakistan at least over a year ago, all
military pressure has shifted away from the tribal area in Pakistan, where Al-Qaida
and the Taliban have established their safe houses and training camps.
The recent peace agreement between the newly-elected civilian government of
Pakistan and the Taliban has given the latter an implicit approval to intensify
their attacks inside Afghanistan.
Indeed, Al-Qaida has benefited from the chaos in Pakistan and has had ample
time to regroup and step up its terrorist attacks.
The Afghanistan president is disappointed by continuous deception from the
Pakistani authorities. His recent threat to send Afghan troops into Pakistani
soil and fight terrorists over there is symbolic of his personal frustration.
He was under tremendous pressure during the Paris conference held on June 12
for lack of improvements in Afghanistan. Indeed, increasing insurgency
activities and growing terrorist attacks have blocked the development process in
the entire southern region of the country.
This time, Karzai's frustration is also shared by the United States military
in Afghanistan. The latest US attack in Pakistani territory, which killed 11
Pakistani soldiers, is a warning signal to the Pakistani military.
Indeed, the US authorities have for a long time trusted Pakistani president
Pervez Musharraf as a key ally in the war against Al-Qaida and the Taliban.
It took Washington a long time to eventually become disillusioned with him.
However, the civilian government of Pakistan is unable to impose its will on the
powerful Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) branch of the military.
Since the early 1990s, successive prime ministers of Pakistan have had no
other choice but to comply with the ISI's policy in Afghanistan.
There is a consensus among western intelligence services that Al-Qaida and
the Taliban leadership live in safe houses inside Pakistan.
President Bush, during his speech in New York after the September 11, 2001
attacks, promised that he would "smoke out" the terrorists from their caves.
However, nearly seven years later the Al-Qaida and Taliban leadership are
still at large in Pakistan. Lately, the current US administration has come under
heavy criticism for going overboard to appease Pakistan. In an election year it
is critical for the outgoing administration to show some success in the war
against terror, and the best achievement would be to capture or kill a top
leader of Al-Qaida or the Taliban.
Pakistani authorities take seriously the military threat coming from
Afghanistan, even though an ill-equipped Afghan army of only 70,000 soldiers is
not a match against a strong Pakistani military of 6,00,000 soldiers.
However, the Afghan army, backed by American special forces and the US air
force, would be better equipped to fight Al-Qaida and the Taliban in the tribal
areas bordering Pakistan than in Afghan villages and towns. Ultimately, Pakistan
might face an existential challenge if the US is forced to intervene in
Pakistani territory in the name of the "war on terror".
Haroun Mir served as an aide to late Ahmad Shah Massoud, Afghanistan's
former defense minister. He is the co-founder and deputy director of
Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS).
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