The Motives Behind Afghan Peace Talks
Haroun Mir
December 3, 2008
British and Saudi vested interests behind possible deal, says Haroun Mir
The recent Afghan peace talk with the Taliban, initiated by Saudi Arabia and
sponsored by British authorities has been kept highly secret.
In fact the rationale behind talking to the insurgents in order to separate
them from Al-Qaeda is accepted by the Afghan people and endorsed by the
coalition forces in Afghanistan.
However, all recent attempts in bringing the insurgents into the negotiation
table have failed. The recent Saudi mediation efforts should be scrutinized by
the US authorities before they endorse it as American interest in the region
differs from the interests of Saudi Arabia and Britain.
9/11 brought the US to the conflict in Afghanistan. Its initial objective of
defeating the Taliban and eliminating the leadership of Al-qaeda was compromised
by miscalculations of its political and military leaders who underestimated the
importance of foreign support to the Taliban and overestimated military
cooperation from Pakistan in the war on terror.
The Taliban, after being defeated by American forces, have escaped to
Pakistan, where they found a safe haven. Additionally, they received financial
assistance from a complex network of charities originated in the wealthy Gulf
countries.
President Bush turned a blind eye on Pakistan’s complicity with the Taliban
because of US’s engagement in the war in Iraq. Recently the US military and
intelligence services were able to convince the White House that terrorism could
not be defeated in Afghanistan lest they wipe out the safe havens in Pakistan.
Although Britain opposes any strikes against terrorist camps inside Pakistan,
the US military rightly expanded its military operations across the
Afghani-Pakistani border. These operations have been positively assessed in
Kabul. According to the Afghan Ministry of Defense, the number of terrorist and
insurgent attacks in Afghanistan has decreased by 40% since the US started
striking on Pakistani soil.
The Taliban and Al-Qaeda terror network are under increasing US military pressure
in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US’s new strategy of hitting terrorism at
its source has frightened those countries which have helped create the Taliban
as leverage to promote their political agenda in the region.
The prospect of Pakistan becoming a failed state is looming high for the
international community. Britain and Saudi Arabia are very concerned about the
future of Pakistan for different reasons. Britain is home to more than two
million Pakistanis. The London terrorist attacks of 7/7 were planned and
executed by British citizens of Pakistani origin, trained in the terrorist camps
in Pakistan. Therefore, Britain chiefly prizes stability in Pakistan , fearing
that a failed-sate Pakistan would be too heavy a burden at home.
Britain’s knowledge of the Afghanistan and Pashtun tribal belt in Pakistan
dates back to 18th century. But the old Pashtun tribal structure vanished during
the past three decades of conflict in Afghanistan. The current British effort of
reaching out to the Taliban has already failed. Since British forces moved to
Helmand, negotiating a secret truce with the Taliban, the situation in the
province has further deteriorated. The British zeal to negotiate with the
insurgents would certainly buy valuable time for the Taliban and Al-Qaeda to
better regroup and expand their operations in relatively stable provinces of
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
For Saudis, Pakistan’s military has always been a vital ally which offered
its conventional and nuclear arsenal as a protection for the Kingdom. In
exchange they have provided substantial financial assistance to the military.
And a radical Sunni movement such as the Taliban, figures Riyadh, would serve as
a natural foe against Shiite Iran in the region. Therefore, the kingdom was
among the three countries, which recognized Taliban’s government in Kabul.
Saudis are not yet ready to disengage from their investment in the Taliban. A
tolerant democracy in Afghanistan would undermine their conservative vision of
Islam. In the past decades, Riad has invested more money in religious madrassas
than in economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.
That leaves Saudi Arabia’s recent engagement in an Afghanistan peace solution
dubious. They have remained passive in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban
regime in 2001 and didn’t offer their assistance to Afghanistan as they might
have, as a leader of the Islamic world. Afghans are not sure if Saudis recent
involvement to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table is a genuine effort or
a new strategy to nurture their protégé in an Afghanistan after NATO’s presence.
The new US administration should beware of the British and Saudis’ objective
in the region, which consists of saving Pakistan at the cost of abandoning
Afghanistan. While the rest of the world seems to have ceased caring about
bringing justice to the architects of 9/11, the US government has a commitment
to do so, saving Afghanistan from the Taliban resurgence in the process.
Haroun Mir is co-director of Afghanistan Center for Research and Policy
Studies (ACRPS). He could be reached via e-mail:
harounmir@yahoo.com.
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