How to Turn The Current Political
Crisis in Afghanistan into an Opportunity?
Haroun Mir
October 11, 2009
The situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating very fast. Popular
support for the conflict taking place is fading away in the Western countries
and particularly in the US. In addition, the current dispute over the election
results is an additional setback for the US administration. Therefore, managing
Afghanistan out of this crisis has become a top US priority, one which reduces
the focus away from the war on Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
The current political crisis is due to serious doubts over transparency of
the Afghan presidential election. Indeed, a very low voter turnout and serious
allegations of fraud has already tarnished the credibility of the election. The
country is in a political impasse, and the faith of Afghanistan is in the hands
of the Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission.
The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), which is staffed by both Afghans
and internationals, will make the ultimate decision about the outcome of the
election. Either they will declare president Karzai winner in the first round or
invalidate enough of his votes so that Karzai could not cross the threshold of
50% in the first round and the race goes to a second round. The ECC’s decision
will not be based on their investigations because they will have neither
adequate time nor technical means to investigate more than 2,000 allegations of
frauds in the current security circumstances. Since the dispute over the
election results is a political one, therefore the ECC’s decision will be
political as well.
Currently two scenarios are presented as outcome of the election: The first
scenario is that President Karzai wins the first round and forms a coalition
government, not only with his coalition partners who backed him in his
re-election but, under pressure from the international community, will also
bring Abdullah Abdullah’s camp on board; the second scenario is that no
candidate wins the race in the first round and the election goes to a second
round, and the likelihood of holding the second round before the next spring or
summer is very small because of security issues and logistical challenges due to
the harsh winter climate.
Both scenarios are disastrous for Afghanistan. The first one will make
Afghanistan much weaker because a coalition government will be composed of
antagonist forces, such as powerful warlords, who helped re-elect President
Karzai, as well as an opposition, which accused Karzai of vote rigging. This is
a recipe for failure. The second scenario will create a power vacuum. Karzai’s
legitimacy will be undermined if his mandate is extended for another few months
because the opposition will refuse to recognize his authority.
The ultimate goal of the US administration in Afghanistan is to defeat
Al-Qaeda and the Taliban not only in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan. In order
to succeed in this mission, the US needs a legitimate and functional government
in Kabul, which provides justice, security, and basic services to a population
that at present feels disenfranchised from the political process. The public has
lost faith in the Afghan government and the coalition forces in being able to
protect them from the Taliban.
Contrary to the initial expectations of the US administration about the
elections, the next Afghan government will be weak, dysfunctional, and lack
legitimacy in the eyes of the majority of Afghans. In addition, corruption,
narcotics, and nepotism will remain unchallenged with a coalition government in
the context of three decades of conflict in the country.
According to US’ counter-insurgency doctrine, the war in Afghanistan is not
about killing all the bad guys but rather it is about winning the hearts and
minds of local people. Only a legitimate and accountable government can be a
reliable partner in implementing the US’ new strategy in Afghanistan. However,
regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the next Afghan
president will lack legitimacy, and the next government will remain
dysfunctional. The Afghan people and the international community can not afford
to wait another five years before any substantive and positive change takes
place.
In order to manage Afghanistan out of the current crisis, and improve
governance, one solution is to opt for another care-taker government through a
Bonn 2 type process. Such a government would have greater credibility and
legitimacy in the eyes of Afghans than any government formed as a result of the
current contested presidential election.
In fact the decision to hold another international conference has already
been suggested by Germany and Britain, but we need to advance its date by a
couple of months and broaden its participants to include influential Afghans as
was the case in the Bonn Conference in 2001. However, this time the
international community should extend an olive branch to the Taliban and
Hezb-e-Islami of Hekmatyar by inviting them to take part in this new
international conference on Afghanistan.
By this means, it would be possible to turn the current political crisis into
an opportunity. It would allow a new leadership with a capable team to emerge
that would be accountable not only to the Afghan people but also to the
international community. Such an interim government would need to improve the
situation and by so doing regain the trust of the Afghan people. It would need
to ensure that fair and transparent presidential elections take place within two
years.
Haroun Mir served as a special assistant to late Ahmad Shah Massoud,
Afghanistan ’s former Defense Minister. He’s director of Afghanistan’s Center
for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS).
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