Peace Deals that Destabilize Afghanistan
M. Ashraf Haidari
July 3, 2008
Present and past peace negotiations between Pakistan and the Taliban in the
country's Federally Administered Tribal Areas have coincided with increased
cross-border terrorist attacks in Afghanistan. For example, terrorist attacks
have risen by more than 40 percent in eastern Afghanistan within the first five
months of 2008 compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the
number of civilian deaths caused by cross-border terrorism rose to 638 this
year, 62 percent more than the same period last year. Additionally, this past
June saw the highest number of foreign military casualties with 46 coalition
troops having died in clashes against the Taliban. This shouldn't be much of a
surprise, however. During similar Pakistan-Taliban peace negotiations in 2005
and 2006, Afghanistan saw a 300 percent increase in cross-border terrorist
incidents. At the August 2007 Afghanistan-Pakistan Regional Peace Jirga
Conference in Kabul, President Pervez Musharraf admitted that the problem
existed.
The government and people of Afghanistan strongly support the
re-establishment of a civilian government in Pakistan, and stand ready to
collaborate closely with the new regime to address common security threats to
the two nations. However, Pakistan needs to craft an approach to their
northwestern border that balances their internal security needs with their
regional and international commitments to Afghanistan's stability. Peace in
Pakistan simply cannot come at the expense of security in Afghanistan, both for
international soldiers and Afghan civilians. Talibanization of Pakistan is not a
problem that can be resolved by shifting it elsewhere through previously failed
peace deals with terrorists – who can and must be defeated where they originate
and find easy sanctuary.
At the same time, NATO needs to bolster its military strength in the fight
against cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan. It would not take much, in terms
of additional troop deployments, to make a big difference in Afghanistan. Just
about two additional brigades, or about 7,500 troops, would provide a great
boost to efforts to defeat the Taliban. Ultimately, the key to securing
Afghanistan will rest in the build-up of a professional Afghan army and police.
To hasten the process, more military and police trainers are needed to build the
Afghan national security forces to reach the targeted goals of 80,000 soldiers
for the Afghan National Army (ANA), and 82,000 officers for the Afghan National
Police by the end of 2009. Specifically, Afghanistan needs more than 70
Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams – each comprising 16-20 men – to train
ANA units. The country also requires 2,300 police trainers, including force
protection, to implement the district police development program currently
underway.
Moreover, the Taliban and al-Qaida are keenly aware of the vulnerable human
environment in Afghanistan, and will lose no time in banking on the destitution
and desperation of the Afghan people to destabilize the country. The recent
intensifying conflicts and an expanding drought have internally displaced more
than 100,000 people across Afghanistan. The skyrocketing food prices and the
large scale refugee repatriation from neighboring countries have further
complicated the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Already the fifth least
developed country in the world, Afghanistan is fast reaching the breaking point
and can no longer endure the increasing pressures of multiple humanitarian
challenges facing its people.
The international community should urgently and generously respond to the
emergency aid appeals made by the Afghan government and the United Nations in
order to prevent an impending humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan. Failure
to do so will only strengthen the Taliban and weaken the trust of Afghans in
democracy and their support as a strategic asset in the fight against terrorism.
Failure in Afghanistan is no longer an option, however, and peace can hardly
take hold in Pakistan without stability in Afghanistan. Nor can global security
be ensured without consolidation of Afghanistan's democratic achievements over
the past seven years. It is, therefore, in the best interest of all stakeholders
to commit firmly to helping secure and rebuild Afghanistan.
M. Ashraf Haidari is political counselor of the Embassy of Afghanistan in
Washington, DC. His e-mail is
haidari@embassyofafghanistan.org
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