Michael Hughes
August 27, 2022

A year after the U.S. military’s disastrously-managed withdrawal from Afghanistan, a train wreck of epic proportions that made America’s last days in Vietnam look sane, President Joe Biden is thumping his chest about his administration’s counterterrorism record.

As he marked the one-year anniversary of the attack that killed thirteen U.S. service members and 170 Afghan civilians outside Kabul airport, Biden – in a rather tone-deaf manner – boasted at how his administration has redoubled its “relentless” global campaign against terrorism.

“In February, we took out the global head of ISIS in Syria, and last month, in Kabul, we eliminated the leader of al-Qaeda. We now maintain pressure against terrorist threats without keeping thousands of troops in harm’s way on the ground in Afghanistan,” Biden said in a statement on Friday. “And my Administration will continue to hunt down terrorists who seek to harm the United States, wherever they may be.”

Later, on the South Lawn of the White House before departing on Marine One, the president was asked if he had spoken with the family members of those killed in the attack that took place on August 26, 2021, three days before the official American exit date.

“Not today, but I have spoken [with them] in the past,” was Biden’s unreflecting dodge.

Republican rivals, however, were not about to let Biden distract from the primary topic of the week. Senator Tom Cotton told Fox News that the “preventable” attack was the result of Biden’s incoherent strategy and failure to act.

“It was a strategic disaster of the first order,” Cotton said, while accusing Biden of wanting to “bury” the Afghan debacle.

However, seemingly suffering from amnesia regarding the tragic irony of the first go-around, the remedy posed by Cotton apparently would have been to practically reinvade Afghanistan. So, the senator may need a walk down memory lane.

October 7, 2001: Then-U.S. President George W. Bush said the Taliban would “pay a price,” for not handing over al-Qaeda leadership as American bombs rained down on Afghanistan. August 31, 2021: The Pentagon confirmed no U.S. boots remained on Afghan soil as the Taliban ruled in Kabul while hosting al-Qaeda leadership.

And oh, by the way Senator Cotton, during the 20 years in between, the $2.4 trillion conflict killed 243,000 – including more than 70,000 civilians – in addition to over 6,000 American troops, according to Brown University’s Costs of War project.

That said, Cotton is accurate in conveying how the U.S. was entirely unprepared despite warning signs flashing months prior to the collapse of the puppet regime in Kabul. 

And the president, however he might try, cannot deflect or hide from the blowback because it still haunts his poll numbers. Biden’s handling of the Afghan crisis would see his approval rating in the Realclearpolitics.com (RCP) poll of polls plummet – irretrievably – from 51% on August 1, 2021 to 45% a day after the exit. 

Besides a minor uptick a couple weeks later, Biden’s favorability number would never rise above 45 percent again. In fact, Biden’s current RCP average of 41% is two points lower than Trump’s score was at this point in his presidency. 

And although inflation and the supply chain crisis would help drive the number to as low as 36 percent, the Afghan “debacle” set the slide in motion.

AL-QAEDA THREAT & POST-EXIT POLICY

One key unknown is whether the Biden administration’s policies have indeed prevented Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist safe haven. The president, for example, characterized the strike against al-Zawahiri as vindication of his decision to leave Afghanistan, proving that over-the-horizon operations can protect the homeland.

On the other hand, Washington’s hostile attitude toward the Taliban may have inadvertently strengthened the bond between the radical movement and al-Qaeda.

To be sure, that the leader of al-Qaeda was residing in Kabul is no mere coincidence. And a UN intelligence report in June said al-Qaeda has found “increased freedom of action” inside Afghanistan since the Taliban reseized power.

Yet some have claimed, even within the Biden administration, that persistent pressure has degraded al-Qaeda’s external attack capabilities. There is also an argument to be made that al-Zawahiri was nothing more than a symbolic figure at this point, and his removal has almost zero impact on al-Qaeda’s operations.

Aside from al-Qaeda’s intent and capability, there is also a divide within the Taliban vis-à-vis this relationship – with the more sober-minded seeing the risks involved in letting Afghanistan become a terrorist launching pad. Hence, one could argue, antagonistic U.S. policies like freezing aid will sideline the sober-minded wing, if it exists, while empowering maniacal zealots who are already in bed with al-Qaeda, like the Haqqanis.

The Stratfor intelligence group in a report succinctly sums up the rational side of the equation, underscoring Afghanistan’s national interests, which the Taliban put first and foremost. The report also assumes al-Qaeda realizes their host’s hospitality has limits.

“The Taliban have largely sought to reduce the West’s perception that their rule will result in an external terrorist threat, and thus curtail the potential for substantial foreign counterterrorism intervention that could threaten the Taliban’s control,” the report, published on August 26, said.

Al-Qaeda, the intelligence group suggested, maintains a similar interest in allowing the Taliban to consolidate control unhindered given the terror group’s long-term resurgence is reliant on a safe-haven on territory governed by an ally.

Analysts with the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism have a similar take, arguing that while the Taliban may grant al-Qaeda “room for maneuver” in Afghanistan, they are also likely to eschew any rash actions.

“After 9/11, the Taliban, which had been unaware of al-Qaeda’s attack plans, were quickly swept out of power by the US-led coalition,” research experts Teun van Dongen and Joshua Farrell-Molloy wrote in a piece on Friday. “Given this history, they will likely not allow al-Qaeda to blindside them again.”

And, perhaps, the administration is well-aware of all of this and the anti-terror bravado is merely political distraction. Besides, with the embarrassing Afghan exit anniversary looming and Biden’s poll numbers sagging, the al-Zawahiri strike was the perfect tail for wagging multiple dogs.